Ramblings: Tkachuk’s outlook without Gaudreau, can Marchment replicate his numbers? (Jul 18)

Michael Amato

2022-07-18

Now that the dust has somewhat settled on free agency, it's a good idea to examine the ripple of effect of some of the signings. Everyone likes to talk about what a player's new team will mean for them and their teammate's fantasy value, but what about the team they left behind?

Take Johnny Gaudreau for example and how his move to the Columbus Blue Jackets may impact Matthew Tkachuk, should he re-sign long-term with the Flames. You could make an argument that no other playing benefited more from another last year than Tkachuk, as he had a career year and scored 100 of his 104 points playing with Gaudreau. I think it's reasonable to expect Tkachuk will probably face at least a 25-point dropoff in production, probably sliding him down draft boards. He may have even gone as high as the second round if Gaudreau had re-upped when you also factor in Tkachuk's shots and hits production, but now I'd say you're looking at closer to fourth and fifth round value.

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The Ottawa Senators acquiring Cam Talbot was a tough blow if you were hoping to invest in Anton Forsberg stock this season. In a matter of 24 hours, Forsberg went from getting handed the keys to the number one job when Matt Murray was dealt, to sliding back into a tandem situation and potentially a 1B if he's not careful with the arrival of Talbot. Nobody was more consistent in the second half of the season last year than Forsberg, recording a .900 save percentage or better in 32 of his final 40 games. He would've been a great value option you could've taken later in drafts this fall, but now pinning down his value and playing time is a bit tricky.

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Sticking with Ottawa, there's plenty of excitement heading into next season with the additions of Claude Giroux and Alex DeBrincat into the top six, but don't forget about Drake Batherson. The Senators forward was on a 30-goal pace in each of the past two seasons and figures likely to hit that mark this year if he can stay healthy. Batherson will probably be somewhat under the radar in your drafts and there's a good chance that names like DeBrincat, Brady Tkachuk, Josh Norris, Tim Stutzle, and Giroux will go first, but Batherson will still provide good value.

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I'm really curious to see how Mason Marchment produces this season with the Dallas Stars. It's going to be difficult to project his totals since he scored at a 71-point pace last year, albeit over only 54 games and on a team that averaged more than four goals per game. Still, Marchment only recorded six of his 47 points playing with Jonathan Huberdeau and Aleksander Barkov last year, so it's not like he needed elite players to produce consistently.

The fear here would be Marchment's ability to crack the top-six in Dallas. The top line of Joe Pavelski, Roope Hintz and Jason Robertson is locked in, so he'll have to earn a spot on that second unit if his numbers are going to remain anywhere close to what they were in 2021-22. The Stars bottom six is not full of offensive talent to say the least.

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Lost in the shuffle of free agency was the schedule release for next season and probably the most notable thing was the Arizona Coyotes playing 20 of their first 24 games on the road. The New York Islanders were in a similar spot last year, starting with 13 straight on the road while their arena was being completed. I'm not sure how many Coyotes players are going to be drafted this year given the state of that roster, but it's something to keep in mind if you are debating on taking someone from the Desert. A challenging season in Arizona is going to be even more difficult with the start of that schedule.

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David Perron is often overlooked in fantasy drafts despite being able to consistently produce while entering his mid-30s. Perron has posted point paces of 70, 84, 70, 66 and 77 over the past five seasons and still had an ADP in the 20th round last year. He'll likely be unheralded again this fall after signing with the Detroit Red Wings, but there should be reason for optimism that Perron will continue to produce. Despite the deficiencies the Wings may have, their top six suddenly looks very potent, and Perron may find himself playing with Andrew Copp and Jakub Vrana. That's a great situation for him to turn in another strong season. Until Perron gives you a reason to doubt him, don't do it.

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One draft day trade that piqued my interest was Alexander Romanov heading to the Islanders. He ranked in the top 20 in both hits and blocks last season, averaging nearly three and two per game respectively. The problem with Romanov is he's not a major point producer, topping out at 13 last year in 79 games. But if he can expand on that with a bigger opportunity in New York to let's say 30 points, he'd be very valuable in multi-cat leagues. Keep an eye out for him late in your drafts if you're in a deep league that counts hits and blocks.

For fantasy hockey tips and advice, follow me on Twitter at @amato_mike

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LUKE HUGHES N.J
JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
PATRIK LAINE MTL
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KAREL VEJMELKA UTA
DUSTIN TOKARSKI CAR
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22.2 CONNOR MCDAVID ZACH HYMAN VIKTOR ARVIDSSON
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15.3 JEFF SKINNER DEREK RYAN COREY PERRY

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