Top 10 Players Who Recently Lost Fantasy Value

Tom Collins

2022-07-18

The last few weeks have seen plenty of player movement, and most fantasy general managers prefer to look at the optimistic side of things.

A free agent signing means a player will get a top-six role on a new team with top power-play usage or a major trade opens things up for other players to step into a bigger role. But things can't always be rosy.

For every promotion, there has to be a demotion. For every player getting more ice time means someone else is moving down the lineup. Those players should see their production drop and therefore see a decrease in their fantasy value. If you were looking to offload them in fantasy leagues, you won't get as much in return as you might have a month ago.

Below are 10 players who might suffer a drop in production next season and therefore see a drop in fantasy value. For young players on this list, it's important to stay patient as this may only be a temporary blip.

Note that we're not including restricted free agents or unrestricted free agents who re-signed with their team, as no dynamic has changed in those cases.

10. Stuart Skinner

Anyone hopeful that Skinner would be the backup to Mike Smith and potentially start a minimum of 25-30 games for Edmonton had their hopes dashed a week before free agency even hit. In maybe the worst-kept secret in years, everyone knew that Jack Campbell would sign with the Oilers. With Mike Smith signed for one more year, there's no room for Skinner with the big club. This means another year in the AHL, where he has posted improving numbers each season. Note that there are still rumors that Smith may retire. If that happens, Skinner gets a value boost. But until that potentially transpires, he'll be stuck in the minors.

9. Chandler Stephenson

The trade of Max Pacioretty to Carolina for nothing will have a significant impact on Stephenson. When Jack Eichel was traded to Vegas, many believed that Pacioretty and Mark Stone would be automatically shifted to Eichel's line. That's not what happened. It's tough to tell because of all the various injuries Vegas dealt with, but Pacioretty played 18 games once Eichel got into the lineup on February 16. The line of Pacioretty-Stone-Stephenson was on the ice for 32.7 per cent of Pacioretty's even strength minutes, the most frequent line for Pacioretty over those games. The line of Pacioretty-Stephenson-Eichel was his second most common line at 15 per cent. Stephenson was on the ice for every one of Pacioretty's even-strength points in those 18 games and three of his five power-play points. Now Stephenson will be stuck without the player he had the most chemistry with. Maybe Stephenson gets a promotion to the top power-play unit, but losing his most frequent linemate will be a large blow unless he is a regular alongside Jack Eichel.

8. Jakub Vrana

Vrana missed most of this past season with a shoulder injury, but was productive when he did make it back into the lineup, posting 13 goals and 19 points in 26 games on the second line. Five of those goals and six of those points were with the man-advantage, where he played on the top unit for a good chunk of that time. However, the Red Wings worked this offseason at bringing in more veterans. Andrew Copp signed a five-year deal that sees him get $5.6 million per season. David Perron signed a two-year deal that pays him $4.75 million per year. Dominik Kubalik signed a two-year deal at $2.5 million each campaign. All three of these could make up the second line in Detroit this season, and odds are Vrana will be moved to the second power-play unit.

7. Drake Batherson and Tim Stützle

Batherson and Stützle should both continue to pile up points in Ottawa with a much-improved top-six, but they are more than likely the odd-men out on the power-play. That's what happens when the team trades for Alex Debrincat and signs Claude Giroux. Right now, the top power-play unit most likely consists of Thomas Chabot, Brady Tkachuk, Debrincat, Giroux and Josh Norris. That leaves Stützle and Batherson on the second unit. This past season, Batherson had 14 power-play points in only 46 games, which would equate to 25 power-play points over an 82-game season. Meanwhile, Stützle had 27 power-play points. If they are off the top unit, it wouldn’t be a shock to see a 10-15-point decrease in power-play production, which will also impact their points totals.

6. Mackenzie Blackwood

My condolences to anyone who bought high during the Blackwood hype of 2019-20. That season, he had a 22-14-8 record with a 2.77 GAA and a .915 SV%. Since then, his numbers have gotten worse each year. He had a major heel injury this season that caused him to miss 39 games. He's only 25 years old, so there was still hope he could be the team's number one netminder when the Devils took that next step, which will probably happen sooner rather than later. However, the team traded for 26-year-old Vitek Vanecek a couple of weeks back. At best, Blackwood has gone from the bona fide number one starter to a platoon tandem.

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5. Alex Nedeljkovic

It's been a tough few seasons for anyone who has had Nedeljkovic in keeper or dynasty leagues. Like most goalies, he was brought along slowly, but he put up great numbers in the AHL (career 89-45-11 record with 14 shutouts). He was finally given the opportunity in Carolina due to injuries and he was excellent, finishing 2020-21 with a 15-5-3 record with three shutouts, a 1.90 GAA and a .931 SV%. He was then traded to Detroit, where he had a great first half (12-10-4 with a 2.69 GAA, a .918 SV and one really bad start in his first 28 games) followed by a poor second half (8-14-5 with a 3.89 GAA, .884 SV% and 10 really bad starts in 31 games). There was still hope the 26-year-old could be Detroit's goalie when they became good again, but the trade for Ville Husso and drafting of Sebastian Cossa last summer have put a big kibosh on those plans. With Husso signed for three years for just under $5 million per season and Nedeljkovic a UFA next summer, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Ned play backup this season and move to another squad in a year.

4. Ryan Strome

Strome has been one of those underrated players the last few years, but he's proven he can be productive when playing alongside an elite player. He had 163 points in his last 200 games with the Rangers, which averages out to an 82-game pace of 67 points. That's pretty good production from someone that you could normally pick up late in drafts. In those 200 games, he also averaged more than two shots per game and had 49 power-play points. However, he's now going to a team with no elite players. If he continues to play centre, odds are he won't be on the top line with Trevor Zegras. Being away from the team's best offensive player isn't a good way to continue putting up points.

3. Darcy Kuemper

There might be a concern that he'll be similar to Phillip Grubauer next season, as he's leaving the best team in the league. No matter where he signed, it was going to be a downgrade. After all, Colorado just scored 3.76 goals per game, fourth in the league. That meant a lot of wins for the team’s netminder, even on nights when he might not have deserved it. Now he's going to Washington, who scored 3.29 goals per game this year and might be without Nicklas Backstrom for quite a while. While many of Kuemper’s overall numbers (goals against average, save percentage, etc.) may not be impacted much, he will see a downgrade in wins.

2. Elias Lindholm

In a season where everything goes perfect with the Flames, Lindholm put up 42 goals and 82 points in 82 games. Now the Flames are in a little bit of disarray after Johnny Gaudreau left for Columbus. How tight were Lindholm and Gaudreau? According to Natural Stat Trick, Gaudreau was on the ice for 1,047 of Lindholm's 1,144 five-on-five minutes (91.5 per cent) this past season. In the previous three seasons, Gaudreau was on the ice for 1780 of 2798 of Lindholm's five-on-five minutes (63.6 per cent). Moving onto Gaudreau's line in a more permanent fixture was a boon for Lindholm as Gaudreau led the league five-on-five in assists, primary assists and points this past season. Losing Gaudreau will have a major impact on Lindholm's five-on-five production. That doesn't take into account the rumors that Matthew Tkachuk might be dealt. None of this bodes well for his future production.

1. Patrick Kane

It's a fire sale in Chicago, and Kane is the one getting burned. Sure, Kane is elite, but he has quickly lost all of his top teammates. This past season, his most frequent linemates at five-on-five were Alex Debrincat, Dylan Strome, Brandon Hagel, Kirby Dach, Jonathan Toews and Dominik Kubalik. Toews is the only one that remains, and the Blackhawks generally try to keep the two of them on separate lines (last season, they played together for only 156 minutes of 1,116 minutes of Kane’s five-on-five play). That means Kane might start the season with some combination of Henrik Borgstrom, Lukas Reichel, Philipp Kurashev, Tyler Johnson, Taylor Raddysh and Max Domi. Although Kane may be dealt, with a $10-million cap hit, that may not happen until the trade deadline. Kane has had at least a 96-point pace in each of the last four seasons, but that streak is in jeopardy this year.

3 Comments

  1. Striker 2022-07-18 at 09:45

    Smith is heading to LTIR, his career is over.

    • Tom Collins 2022-07-19 at 13:06

      Thanks guys. I Googled him and saw stuff about potential retirement, but nothing about LTIR.

  2. Frode Lyshaugen 2022-07-18 at 14:09

    Mike Smith is not expected to play next season, so Skinner will probably backup Campbell. Not the worst situation to be in. https://oilersnation.com/2022/07/13/ken-holland-doesnt-expect-mike-smith-to-play-in-2022-23/

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