Eastern Edge: Analyzing Free Agent Signees Tony DeAngelo and Ondrej Palat
Brennan Des
2022-07-19
In this week's Eastern Edge, we'll discuss the fantasy impact of some recent signings. In particular, we'll get into Tony DeAngelo's new contract with the Flyers and Ondrej Palat's deal with the Devils. The cap information is taken from Cap Friendly.
Signed: $5 Million x 2 Years with Philadelphia
DeAngelo had a strong showing last season, tallying 51 points in 64 appearances, which translates to 65 points over 82 games. It was the second time he scored at such a pace, as he managed similar numbers with the Rangers during the 2019-2020 campaign. There's a small gap in his resume as off-ice issues and questions of his character kept him on the shelf for most of the 2020-2021 campaign. Despite defensive shortcomings and questionable conduct, DeAngelo has now shown he can produce offensively in two different markets. The only problem is both of those markets featured strong rosters and competent power plays. The Rangers had Artemi Panarin and Mike Zibanejad, while the Hurricanes were headlined by Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov. It's worth noting that Carolina's power-play ranked second in the league (25.6%) during the 2020-2021 campaign – before DeAngelo arrived. They ranked 13th this past year, with a success rate of 22% while DeAngelo was on the roster.
Now, I'm not suggesting that DeAngelo made the power-play worse. However, while he's posted solid numbers with the man advantage in two different markets now, I don't think there's enough evidence to prove that he is the catalyst of a team's overall power-play success. Sure, he's a good puck-moving defenseman that may be able to mesh well with other talented players, but I don't think he's the straw that stirs the drink. That's important because DeAngelo is joining a Flyers team that features much less offensive talent than the teams he's played with recently. We're talking about a team that posted a league-worst 12.6% success rate with the man advantage last year. Sure, adding a competent power-play quarterback should help, but I don't think DeAngelo has the game-breaking ability to single-handedly turn things around. A power-play headlined by some combination of Sean Couturier, Cam Atkinson, Travis Konecny, James van Riemsdyk, Kevin Hayes and/or Joel Farabee just doesn't seem destined for success – especially with Couturier and Farabee coming off major surgeries, and Hayes' health still up in the air.
Given the fact that the Flyers gave up assets to acquire DeAngelo and then signed him to a lucrative contract, I don't expect Ryan Ellis will be healthy enough to play a major role with the Flyers this year. That means DeAngelo probably won't have much competition for the role of top offensive defenseman on the team, and he should see a high volume of power-play time. Now if DeAngelo starts falling in fantasy drafts – and I expect he will due to the significant downgrade in his surroundings – he could represent a low-risk/high-reward option. A high volume of offensive opportunity can sometimes help players produce in unfavourable surroundings. Just look at Shayne Gostisbehere in Arizona last year. Ghost managed 51 points in 82 games. Even though the Coyotes had an abysmal 13.9% success rate on the power-play, he managed 19 points with the man advantage thanks to a prominent role that gave him 68% of the team's total power-play time. That's just one example, and there are also plenty of circumstances where playing for a bad team limits a player's offensive ceiling.
One final thing to keep in mind is that DeAngelo's reputation as a defensive liability may cause him to fall out of favour with defensively minded coach John Tortorella. As a result, I'd be hesitant to use an actual pick on DeAngelo during upcoming fantasy drafts. However, if he's sitting on your league's waiver wire to start the season, you may benefit from taking a chance on him, even if it's for a short while. At that point, the acquisition cost would be low enough that dropping him should be easy to stomach if things go south.
Signed: $6 Million x 5 Years with New Jersey
Palat is fresh off a regular season that saw him pace for 52 points, skating 16 and a half minutes per game, while seeing 41% of Tampa's power-play time. Given his career numbers, most would say Palat performed to expectations last year. However, others might call his production slightly underwhelming given the great heights he achieved the year prior. During the 2020-2021 campaign, Palat scored at an impressive 69-point pace. His output was bolstered by a prominent role with the man advantage as he saw 64% of Tampa's total power-play time. He tallied a career-high 20 power-play points through just 55 appearances. A combination of injuries resulted in an increased power-play role for Palat that year, but he went back to a reduced role this past season and managed just eight power-play points through 77 games.
Given the magnitude of his contract, I expect Palat will see a much bigger role in hist first year with the Devils than he saw in his last year with the Lightning. At present (with Jesper Bratt still a restricted free agent), Palat possesses the fourth-highest cap hit on New Jersey's roster and is one of three forwards signed long-term – the other two being cornerstone pieces in Jack Hughes and captain Nico Hischier. The Devils must maximize the return on their investment here, so I'd say a top-six role for Palat is virtually guaranteed, and I'd anticipate he'll be on the ice for more than last year's average of 16:29 a night. I'm hesitant to project exact line combinations because there are still a lot of pieces up in the air, but given Palat's experience playing beside offensive stars in Tampa Bay, I'd expect him to skate beside Hughes rather than Hischier. As a result of his sizeable contract and previous power-play success, I imagine Palat will also start the season on New Jersey's top PP unit.
Overall, I'm optimistic that a more favourable role in New Jersey will lead to improved production for Palat. However, I feel as though that optimism has boosted his fantasy stock before we've even seen the on-ice product. As his fantasy value rises, the likelihood of disappointment also increases, making me more and more hesitant to invest sight unseen.