Ramblings: Signing/Trade Impacts On Laine, Eklund, Chabot, and Heiskanen – July 19

Michael Clifford

2022-07-19

Free agency has settled considerably and though there still are some significant names left, even outside Nazem Kadri, many teams have done most of the shopping they're going to. Or, at least, all the significant shopping they're going to do. For anyone who wants to read on the individual impacts from the signings, we covered a couple dozen signings/trades over the last week or so here.

Other than the player getting signed or traded, and the void he leaves behind, there is obvious impact that comes to his new team. Players on either side are going to be affected. The articles the editing team has posted covers these but don't go too far in depth. After all, they're time-sensitive articles and getting good, brief thoughts is generally the approach.

For that reason, I want to go over the impact on players that will come from these signings and trades, other than the signed/traded player themselves. Data will be taken from our Frozen Tools and Natural Stat Trick, and cap information from Cap Friendly. Other sources credited as they first appear.

Patrik Laine

Clearly, one of the names that comes to the top of the list because of Johnny Gaudreau's signing is Patrik Laine. After a poor start to his Blue Jackets tenure with 21 points in 45 games last season, Laine was a point-per-game player in 56 game this season, managing 26 goals. It was a great turnaround, but it does feel like he has more that he can give, especially in the goals department.

One area Laine should improve greatly is power-play scoring. His goals per 60 minutes at all power-play strengths (5v4, 5v3, 4v3) was 1.57, by far the lowest of his career (2.2 in 2019-20). We can thank a bottom-10 Columbus power play for that.

The Jackets had a big issue in that Jakub Voracek was their only significant playmaker on the power play, according to tracking data from Corey Sznajder; there is a reason he had 23 PP assists in 79 games, after all. But he was doing all the heavy lifting and if Voracek wasn't setting up players for clean shots, few other Jackets were. That puts a lot of pressure on the soon-to-be 33-year-old. The addition of Johnny Gaudreau gives the team another significant power-play playmaker:

The issue they could run into is that both Gaudreau and Laine play the same spot on the power play, which is the top of the left circle. One of them will have to move, and the best guess is it will be Gaudreau, as they want Laine in his spot for one-timers. Regardless, if they can move Gaudreau below the goal line, that gives them two great playmakers to setup Laine for those shots. I suspect he'll improve greatly in his power-play scoring in 2022-23.

It really will be fascinating to watch the elite skill guys from Columbus this year. We could see big seasons from the likes of Laine and Zach Werenski, but we may not get 115 points again from Gaudreau. But it's hard to deny what he could do for them on the power play, and Laine should be a big recipient of that. He averaged a PP goal roughly every six games in Winnipeg. He should get closer to that mark this coming campaign.

Carter Verhaeghe

It really is hard to get some 2022 Playoff thoughts out of my head, and one of them was just how good Verhaeghe was for Florida. According to the same tracking data set referenced earlier, he was sixth in the entire postseason in game score per 60 minutes, which takes into account shots, controlled zone entries/exits, and playmaking. The only players to rank higher were Gaudreau, Connor McDavid, Jake Guentzel, and the Colorado duo of Nathan MacKinnon and Nazem Kadri. Aside from the great production, he was just a monster for them all over the ice.

That is really nothing new for Verhaeghe. He has been Aleksander Barkov's partner in crime for a couple years now and they're spectacular together: more goals for, fewer goals against, and better expected goals numbers when together than when apart (which would include Barkov skating with Jonathan Huberdeau). Verhaghe's offensive impacts over his three seasons, per Evolving Hockey, are quite literally off the charts:

His problem in the fantasy game has been a lack of PP production, which is a function of his lack of PPTOI: he gets less than one-third of the power-play ice time that Huberdeau and Barkov get, being largely stapled to the second unit, if at all. With Claude Giroux moving on, though, there could be a role for him on the top PP unit.

It would be a leap for him. To finish the 2021-22 season, he was getting less PPTOI on a per-game basis than Joe Thornton, for reference. Assuming the trio of Barkov/Huberdeau/Sam Reinhart are stapled to the top unit, there is one spot open. It could easily go to Anthony Duclair or Sam Bennett, but we have a new coaching regime in Florida. They don't have favourites to play and could move Verhaeghe to the top. "Could" being the operative word here. Maybe they try the five-forward formation again.

In his two Florida seasons, Verhaeghe has averaged 62 points/82 games, and that's with five total power-play points. He is a top PP role away from pushing for a point-per-game. It's the last missing piece and there is, ostensibly, a spot for him. We'll see if they go through with it, but he's closer now than when Giroux was on the roster.

Bo Horvat

The addition of Ilya Mikheyev probably won't have the power-play impact that adding Johnny Gaudreau would, obviously. But one area Horvat needed some help was having a good defensive winger alongside him. Not because he didn't have any – Conor Garland and Tanner Pearson are good in their own end – but because they needed them elsewhere. Players like Brock Boeser, Elias Pettersson, Nils Hoglanger, and Vasily Podkolzin are all varying levels of fine-to-bad defensively, and that left the rest of their lineup a little weak in that one area.

Mikheyev being signed means there are now, at least, three good defensive wingers the team can deploy, pending further trades. They can have one alongside J.T. Miller or Pettersson and give them a bit of stability in that sense. Not that every line needs to be great defensively but being able to limit the opposition and effectively turn pucks over is a big key to generating offence. Mikheyev can do that, and it should only benefit all the centres on this roster.

Whether he has more fantasy upside than he did in Toronto is up for debate. It is unlikely he gets top PP minutes, and the Canucks are a team that relies on a heavily-used top unit. Without that top PP time, there is still a big piece missing from his fantasy value. But there could be a domino effect throughout the team that gives them a bit more on the defensive end, which should lead to better offensive 5-on-5 results. I guess we'll wait to see if anyone gets traded before relying on this, but it could be a very big signing for the team.

William Eklund

Trading Brent Burns did one thing to the San Jose roster: it opened a top PP role. Since acquiring Erik Karlsson, it was generally Burns or Karlsson (and often both) on the top power play. With Burns gone, this cements Karlsson into the top PP role and likely forces the team to roll with a 4F/1D power play. Assuming Karlsson, Logan Couture, Tomas Hertl, and Timo Meier are four of the five components, it leaves one spot open.

The open power-play role could go to Alexander Barabnov. When Karlsson missed a couple months from January-March, it was Barabanov who was often used with the top forwards. That was without William Eklund on the roster, though, and if he makes the team out of training camp, he could easily take that top PP role, too. It would make sense: Eklund is a supremely talented offensive player. To have him make the roster but not have him on the power play would seem like a misuse of his skills. Just last year we saw Matthew Boldy get a fair amount of top PP time sliding onto the Minnesota roster halfway through the season. We also saw the same things for Trevor Zegras and Cole Caufield in recent campaigns. It might be asking too much for Eklund to perform like those players in his first full year, but that's what the Sharks are expecting of him. If he can do that, there's no reason not to give him that top PP time.

We could see Eklund walk onto this team and skate on the second line and first power-play quintet. That would give him 60-point upside right out of the gate. It might be a lot to lob onto a 20-year-old rookie but again, this is what the team (and fans and fantasy owners) are expecting of him. He'll at least have the opportunity to make good on it.

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Thomas Chabot

When I wrote about Chabot's 2021-22 season back in May, two areas of concern were team depth scoring and the power play. As for the latter, Chabot has 31 PPPs in his last 179 games going back three seasons. For reference, Cale Makar had 34 PPPs in 77 games while Quinn Hughes had 31 in 76 games this past season. Adam Fox had 33 PPPs, Roman Josi had 37, and Victor Hedman had 38. If Chabot wants to leap to nearly the top of the production standings among blue liners, being considerably better on the power play is a must.

The two big offseason additions Ottawa made in Alex DeBrincat and Claude Giroux should help immensely. Again from Evolving Hockey, they both had significant expected goals impacts with the man advantage over the last three years, with the former having a big actual-goals impact:

It is exactly what Chabot needed to ascend to the next level in the fantasy game. He cannot post 17 PPPs, or thereabouts, in an 82-game season and hope to be a 70- or 80-point guy. The additional depth scoring at 5-on-5 should help as well, no doubt, but adding guys who draw penalties and are also good on the power play should help even more. If this team can climb into the top-10 of power-play goal scoring, Chabot stands a good chance of cruising past the 60-point mark. He can bring adequate peripherals, too, so he could really be one of the more valuable defencemen in 2022-23. I won't be doing projections for a couple months yet, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him somewhere among the top-15 defencemen when all is said and done.

Miro Heiskanen

A big question that Dallas will need to answer this year is whether Heiskanen can be The Guy for them on the power play. John Klingberg is all but assured to be moving on and that leaves the top PP QB role open for Heiskanen to step in and run. Whether he's capable of running it is another matter and that's why we're here.

Evolving Hockey has both Heiskanen and Klingberg being over two standard deviations above the league average in expected goals impact on the power play over the last three seasons. The difference is Klingberg has, quite literally, the largest actual-goals impact of any defenceman over the last three years while Heiskanen's is actually in the negatives, in the range of guys like Matt Dumba and Adam Boqvist.

One reason could be just the quality of players Heiskanen gets on the second PP unit, but the team's goal scoring when he's been with Jason Robertson on the power play is not very good, and is in line with his secondary PP unit duties. Robertson with Klingberg, meanwhile, sees the team's scoring rise by roughly one-third when they're on the power play together. And, for posterity, Klingberg's on-ice goal impacts are constant no matter the PP unit he's skating on. There is something else going on besides bad luck, which is odd because Heiskanen is generally a good puck mover.

The power play is a different skill set and it's one that has to be developed. If I were to look for a comparable, it's Victor Hedman, who had really good impacts with the man advantage earlier in his career, but also had a negative actual-goals impact (from 2013-16):

That has all changed, obviously. Not only have Hedman's impacts gotten better, but his impact on actual goals scored is among the best in the league these days (just behind Klingberg, actually). Maybe this isn't something that Heiskanen picks up immediately, but he will be (or should be) in this role for years to come. It probably comes eventually, but I have my doubts for 2022-23.

It isn't to say he won't pick it up right away. There is a large range of outcomes. All I'm trying to use is his history and how that can illuminate the road moving forward. It could be rough going for a couple years, but dynasty owners shouldn't give up. In 2-3 years, we could be looking at one of the premier PP blue liners in hockey.

*

The Sharks re-signed goalie Kaapo Kahkonen:

A reminder that this is a team starting a pseudo-rebuild and they already have James Reimer and Adin Hill under contract. Maybe one of them is moved, but a platoon goalie on a bad team is not something to get excited about in fantasy.

*

Montreal signed a goalie of their own:

It was important to get a Montembeault deal done because of the ongoing health concerns with Carey Price. At the least, it’ll give them their newly-signed goalie and Jake Allen to start the year if Price is not available.

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