Fantasy Take: Oliver Bjorkstrand Traded To Seattle

Michael Clifford

2022-07-22

There was news on Friday afternoon that Columbus had extended Patrik Laine for four years with an average annual value of $8.7M. That put the Blue Jackets in excess of $6M over the cap and while being over the cap is fine in the offseason, it's often better to take care of the trades necessary while teams still have some cap space of their own. Once rosters are set, it becomes a more difficult task.

With that in mind, Columbus has shipped winger Oliver Bjorkstrand to Seattle:

All things considered, not really a bad haul. We just saw Dylan Coghlan and Max Pacioretty moved for nothing and Philadelphia clearly couldn't move James van Riemsdyk's deal. Bjorkstrand just finished his best season in the NHL with 28 goals and 57 points. He turned 27 in April and has four years left on his contract at $5.5M a season.

Let's dig into what this means for both teams. Cap information from Cap Friendly, and data from both Frozen Tools and Natural Stat Trick.

What Seattle Gets

The first thing to note about Bjorkstrand is he has never averaged 18 minutes a game in a season. Also, he typically hasn't been a power-play producer; his 19 PPPs in 2021-22 isn't far off from the 24 he managed in his first 302 NHL games. His 250 minutes on the power play were over 100 more than his previous high of 142 back in 2017-18. In his first season as a top PP option he produced career highs. The relative lack of PPTOI has kept his season totals meagre, even while he scored at a rate commensurate with top-line wingers – he is top-50 in the league in goals/60 at even strength in his five full seasons. Over just the last three seasons, he's tied for 26th. Those three seasons have also seen him sit just outside the top-50 in shot rate at even strength. All this is to say is that if he can get top-line minutes with top PP exposure, 25 goals and 60 points with over 200 shots seems reasonable.

Our sticking point is going to Seattle. They were 28th in scoring last year and they ran two even-ish power play units, with 1st and 8th among forwards being separated by just 46 seconds in PPTOI per game. Seattle also changed their approach to ice time in the second half of the season. Up until New Year's, they had their top-4 forwards all skating over 18 minutes a night. After New Year's, only Yanni Gourde skated north of 18 minutes a night, with only three forwards total over 17 minutes (Jaden Schwartz was also injured). The Kraken added Andre Burakovsky in free agency and Jared McCann finished the season as a winger. Not that Bjorkstrand will be stuffed on the third line, but second-line minutes on this team could mean 16 minutes a game, not 18. With Schwartz healthy, Shane Wright drafted, Matty Beniers looking like an offensive star, plus all the other incumbents, top PP minutes aren't guaranteed. Again, they basically split the two PP units last year so it's not a big deal but losing 30-45 seconds a night in PPTOI is a medium-sized deal.

What this does ultimately give Seattle is very good winger depth. Between Jordan Eberle, Schwartz, Burakovsky, McCann (if they leave him on the wing), Joonas Donskoi, Brandon Tanev being hopefully ready to go, and now Bjorkstrand, this is a deep team on the wing. Even if McCann moves to centre, they have their top three lines locked up on the flanks. It's a matter of which centre Bjorkstrand ends up with. My guess is he starts with Beniers getting sheltered minutes, which is a good spot, really, but again, the minutes are a worry.

Bjorkstrand is a low-end top-line winger, meaning he's likely a second-line winger on a very good team. Seattle took advantage of their cap space and now they have depth up front that seemed almost unimaginable four months ago.

What Columbus Gets

Well, they get a kick in the teeth, first off. The new Kraken winger has scored at a low-end first line rate on a per-minute basis for much of his career, whether coached by John Tortorella or on a team that is soft-rebuilding. He always seemed good defensively as well and HockeyViz seems to agree (positive up top is good, negative on bottom is also good):

Yes, they brought in Johnny Gaudreau, and he's the better player. But this team is much better with both of them and all of a sudden, signing Erik Gudbranson for $4M a season doesn't seem like a great idea. Paying to get rid of Gustav Nyquist's contract (one year left at $5.5M) apparently wasn't in the cards either.

Bjorkstrand was also, arguably, their best defensive forward. His Evolving Hockey impact certainly thinks so, and he always looked like it watching their games. This was a team that allowed the second-most expected goals and second-most actual goals at 5-on-5 last year. Adding Gudbranson and Gaudreau, but trading Bjorkstrand, is not going to make them a great defensive squad. They'll need the young skaters to step up in big ways without having a go-to guy like Bjorkstrand to insulate them.

Columbus is looking to take another step but this move hurts. Defensively responsible 25-goal wingers are not in abundance. This should give Yegor Chinakhov a real shot at top-6 minutes and a big PP role if he takes another step in development. This could also allow Kirill Marchenko to slide into the top-9. The reality is that now, after the top-line winger duo, they have nothing but aging veterans and unproven kids. Whoever grabs the brass ring wins.

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In fantasy, it seems a fairly lateral move for Bjorkstrand, though we'll have to watch his minutes.

Who this helps

Yegor Chinakhov

Kirill Marchenko

Matty Beniers

Jakub Voracek

Who this hurts

Cole Sillinger (if Boone Jenner isn't healthy come September)

Joonas Donskoi

Jared McCann (if he stays on the wing)

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