Ramblings: Laine, Roslovic with Gaudreau; Hellebuyck; Caufield & more (July 23)
Michael Amato
2022-07-23
Things are looking up for Elias Lindholm. Despite losing 2/3s of arguably the best line in hockey last year, getting Jonathan Huberdeau and his 85 assists from a season ago as a consolation prize isn't too bad. A top unit of Huberdeau/Lindholm/Tyler Toffoli should still be very fruitful for the Calgary Flames and there's a decent chance Lindholm is once again a 40-goal scorer. What once looked like a disaster for Lindholm's fantasy value suddenly has a lifeline.
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Now that Patrik Laine has re-upped with the Columbus Blue Jackets, is 50 goals too unreasonable of an expectation for him next season? Playing with Johnny Gaudreau, who notched 75 assists and was the league leader in even strength points last year, is only going to make Laine that much more formidable. With all due respect to Laine's past teammates, Gaudreau is probably the best talent he's ever played with and Laine's fantasy value is officially at an all-time high.
It’s also going to be very interesting to see who gets the coveted centre spot in-between the two. Jack Roslovic may have the inside track on the role, closing the 2021-22 campaign with 10 goals and 13 points in his final 14 games. Keep an eye on notes from Blue Jackets training camp, as whoever gets that slot is someone you'll want on your squad.
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In order to clear cap space for the Gaudreau and Laine signings, the Blue Jackets shipped Oliver Bjorkstrand to the Seattle Kraken on the cheap. Bjorkstrand was a very useful 25-30-goal scorer on some thin Columbus forward groups, so it remains to be seen how he'll do in the Pacific Northwest. The Kraken are much thinner but they suddenly have a fun forward group. Matt Beniers, Andre Burakovsky, Jared McCann, and Shane Wright to go along with Bjorkstrand will give them a few more draftable players up front than they did a year ago.
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Is Connor Hellebuyck still a top-10 goalie in drafts this year? At this point you'd have to say no. The Winnipeg Jets netminder is coming off arguably the worst statistical season of his career and the team seems poised to take a step back next season. Had Barry Trotz taken the Jets job things may have been different, but now with a few significant players potentially being on the trade block, it seems unlikely Winnipeg will be more competitive than they were a year ago.
Factor in the emergence of goalies like Ilya Sorokin, Igor Shesterkin and Jake Oettinger, and you'd be hard-pressed to make an argument that Hellebuyck should be one of the first 10 goalies taken in 2022-23.
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One player that isn't fading on the Jets is Kyle Connor. Somewhat quietly, Connor had an incredible season, scoring a career-high 47 times and recording the second most even strength goals in the entire league next to Auston Matthews. Some may prefer players that produce more on the power play since most leagues have that category, but even strength production is a good indicator that a player won't have too many lengthy cold streaks and can generate offense in almost any situation. I think you can consider drafting Connor as high as the second round in deep leagues.
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A career high 37 goals and 59 points for Brock Nelson last year, should put him higher on your radar this season. Nelson was both a consistent and explosive scorer last year, recording four two-goal games, a hat-trick and one four-goal game. Those huge outings can really shift the balance of a weekly matchup and Nelson was great for those in 2021-22. It seems weird to say but I think Mat Barzal is probably the third skater you'd draft on the New York Islanders now, being passed by Nelson and Noah Dobson.
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It’s going to be challenging drafting Boston Bruins players this fall. With Patrice Bergeron's future still up in the air and significant injuries to key players like Brad Marchand and Charlie McAvoy to start the season, figuring out what to make of the Bruins in 2022-23 will be no easy task. Perhaps the most concerning is the loss of Bruce Cassidy and the impact he had on Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman. Under Cassidy, Boston ranked 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd and 4th in goals against in five seasons. Cassidy's goalie-friendly structure will be missed by the Bruins netminders and when you factor in the key players they'll be missing, Swayman and Ullmark's value is likely going to take a hit.
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I'm really curious to see what Alex Tuch can do in a full season with the Buffalo Sabres next year. Rasmus Dahlin, Tage Thompson and Owen Power will be the sexiest names on draft boards, but Tuch has plenty of value. He scored at a 62-point pace last season and averaged nearly three shots per game. High volume shooters are great to have on your roster because shooting that frequently can't help but lead to points and they fill up the shot category as well. The Sabres appeared to take a step forward last year and if they continue on that path, it's only going to help everyone's numbers in Buffalo.
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The Montreal Canadiens shipping Jeff Petry to the Pittsburgh Penguins last weekend caught my eye because of how it may impact Cole Caufield. I know Petry had a terrible season last year and didn't produce much at all with the man advantage, but his departure leaves the team without anything close to a true power play quarterback. Caufield is no doubt going to set up shop on the left side of the ice on the power play and a bounce back season from Petry could've bumped his numbers.
Not only is a quarterback pivotal for puck distribution, but the threat of an option from that spot can free up Caufield and force the opposition to not devote as many resources to covering him. I don't expect this to greatly impact Caufield's overall numbers, as he still scored at a 49-goal pace after Martin St. Louis took over, but having an effective option to run the power play can only help his production.
For fantasy hockey tips and advice, follow me on Twitter at @amato_mike