Goalies can be so tough to manage and predict year to year. It has gotten to the point that I will not invest heavily in a goaltender, because the ones like Andrei Vasilevskiy and Igor Shesterkin are too expensive to acquire, and anyone after that is too inconsistent to trust, be it Connor Hellebuyck, Robin Lehner, Jacob Markstrom, etc.

Today I wanted to run through goalies based on a few different leagues. The first thing is to understand what your league values, whether that is the volume or the ratios.

Volume

A lot of leagues are purely points based, meaning at the simplest you get a point for a win, and sometimes a shutout, while on the other end of the spectrum there are additional stats for games started, saves, and negative stats for goals against.

In these leagues, the more a goalie starts, the better. That has been getting tougher and tougher to manage over the last few years though as teams have moved away from giving one goalie 60 starts, and have instead been splitting time, making those goalies who do start 60+ games extremely valuable. However, due to injuries and inconsistent play among other factors, sorting out who the 55+ start goalies are that will give you 30+ wins is a challenge year after year.

Last year, there were five goalies who started 60+ games, and four of the five racked up 30+ wins in those games (Connor Hellebuyck with 29 wins in 66 games fell just short). This year, I have seven goalies projected to pass both the 60-game and 30-win threshold:

Shesterkin, Vasilevskiy, Hellebuyck, Juuse Saros, Jacob Markstrom, Jordan Binnington, and Thatcher Demko are the short list, and should make up the majority of the top goaltending options no matter the league. There are some questions with the teams in front of Hellebuyck and Demko though, while Saros has looked overworked at times of late, and Binnington has been very streaky, and seems to tail off after game #30.

If the wins are less necessary, and a high volume of starts and/or saves is almost as valuable, you should be able to find 60+ starts out of Philipp Grubauer and Karel Vejmelka at much more of a bargain, as neither of their teams has another good option. John Gibson also finds himself at the edge of this group too.

Dropping down to the 55-game plateau and still looking for 30 wins, there are a few other options like Frederik Andersen, Jake Oettinger, Jack Campbell, Tristan Jarry, and Sergei Bobrovsky. The problem with these volume goalies though is that they don't come at much of a discount on draft day. Of the 12 netminders listed here projected for 30 wins (assuming generally healthy seasons) there's not really any bargains there on draft day.

If you're looking for some bargains in this area, you might be looking instead at someone with some 50+ start potential, and some upside with their team. The New Jersey Devils have a solid team, and just needed a goalie, well now they have one in Vitek Vanecek. He should be drafted outside of the top 15 or so, and may be the best value in that range. Elvis Merzlikins and Marc-Andre Fleury are also going to be excellent value goalies going into this year as the starters on decent teams. 

Meanwhile, Alexandar Georgiev is likely going to be over-drafted as the Colorado goalie, but he has never been a starter before, and the incumbent Pavel Francouz has shown he can hold his own behind Colorado's skaters. It wouldn't surprise me to see them closer to a 50/50 split in year one, meaning Georgiev's win numbers will be capped a lot lower than other goalies left on the board at the spot you would have to draft him.

Ratios

I have one H2H categories league that started out with seven skater categories, and three goalie categories. If that wasn't enough, the categories for our weekly goalie stats were Wins, GAA, and Save Percentage. By winning the skater categories every week, the goalie stats hardly mattered to begin with, but on top of that, two out of the three of those being ratio stats meant with a couple well-planned spot starts, the majority of the goalie stats were winnable too just on the minimum three appearances per week. Running with only one goalie in our 12-team league with two starting goalie slots, I was able to make the finals each of the first three seasons (winning twice) before a change was made to the scoring settings.

If you have a setup anywhere close to that, don't hesitate to lean into a no goalie approach (heck, do it anyways regardless of the league settings) and you will be amazed at how easy it is to get by without a top goalie, and finding some nice spot starts on the FA pile.

Top goalies like Andersen, Ilya Sorokin, and Jeremy Swayman are all excellent ones to own in a setup that favours per-game stats, but don't grade as highly mainly because they have solid teammates who make it so that they don't need to carry the bulk of the starts, and they can be paced over the course of the season. These goalies are also usually a little fresher come year end, though there will be some weeks they only play one game, meaning their volume stats can hurt you once in a while.

The ratios are very tough to peg year to year though, and even with all of the variables left the same, luck will still wildly change things. Take a look back at a goalie's last three seasons when making decisions, not just last year. Take into account their team, whether there are new or aging defencemen, the coaching staff (and any changes), and especially if the goalie switched teams in the offseason, because they often take longer to adjust to a team's systems/defencmen, and struggle initially as a result.

When to just punt them to the curb

I had a forum member recently ask me which of Fleury or Campbell he should move a point-per game player in his early 20s with multiple plusses for in a dynasty league – my answer was neither. Both are good goalies, but one is 37, and the other just parlayed an excellent one-third of a season into a secured starting gig on a team with a lesser defence in front of him. Sometimes your best option is to zig while others zag, and instead if goalies cost so much to acquire, sell off all your goalies and go after the top of the waiver wire crop, hoping to hit a home run there, and failing that, at least having the best (or at least deepest) core of skaters in the league.

There are always goalies that finish as very valuable fantasy assets who were initially not given the time of day. Last year it was Ville Husso, Vitek Vanecek, Anton Forsberg, Jonathan Quick, James Reimer, etc. This year, we look for something similar, with backups that have some upside, on teams that don't have the ability to be patient if the starter is struggling. This year I'm looking at Connor Ingram (he requires waivers and won't clear, so he will beat out Kevin Lankinen for the backup job), Charlie Lindgren, Adin Hill, Stuart Skinner, Casey DeSmith, Filip Gustavsson, and Dan Vladar. Out of those seven goalies, I expect at least two to become top-20 fantasy assets by the end of next season.

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On a related goalie note, Scott Wheeler just published his top 10 goalie prospects list, and while it can create some fun conversation, it may not be all that useful in your fantasy leagues. Wheeler tends to slant a little towards North America where he is based, and his lists are not impacted whatsoever by timeline. If a goalie may be slightly better, but is still seven years out, he will nonetheless be ranked above a similar goalie that may start getting starts next year. If you want to try rolling the dice with goalie prospects, your best bet is to find ones in the 23-25 age range, because the wait time will be much shorter, and you will know what you have sooner. All it takes is a few injuries and a prospect goalie can immediately become very relevant – we see it every year.

The better spot to find your goalie lists for who is the better bet to stash in your fantasy leagues will always be the DobberProspects report. 

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We had two signings yesterday with Jonas Siegenthaler locking in to a five-year extension with an AAV of $3.4 million per season. Some think it's too much, but I actually see it as an underpayment. Siegenthaler is an excellent defenceman, and though he doesn't put up flashy numbers, he makes a great complimentary piece to those that do, and New Jersey does have a lot of puck movers on the back end with Dougie Hamilton and a pair of top prospects in Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec lined up for the future. The extension shows that he's viewed as a top-four defenceman in New Jersey.

Jesse Puljujarvi also signed a team-friendly one-year deal worth $3 million. This does not mean he will start the season in Edmonton, and in fact makes him an even more desirable asset. He's still very possible (likely) to get moved, which wouldn't necessarily help his fantasy value. Now might be the time to sell, and if not now, then right after Pulj gets moved and he's viewed as the shiny new toy that has a chance to play on the new team's top line (but he likely won't).

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Find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments. See you next Wednesday!