Fantasy Hockey Poll: Playoff Scoring Barometers

Rick Roos

2022-07-27

It's usually sound advice to not put too much stock on a skater's performance during the Stanley Cup playoffs, what with it being a smaller sample size plus games being played under conditions less similar to the regular season due to factors such as gutting through injuries, teams focusing more – or less – on offense as compared to normal, etc. Despite this, some players do break-out in the playoffs, and having a poll that focuses on playoff production as a barometer for 2022-23 may help us make some sense of the range in production from these players.

The following 20 skaters had scoring rates during the 2021-22 regular season and 2022 playoffs that differed enough to wonder which version we'll see in the 2022-23 regular season: the 2022 playoff version or the 2021-22 regular season version. Your task is to vote for whomever you believe will produce, in the 2022-23 regular season, closer to how they did in the 2022 playoffs versus how they did in the 2021-22 regular season. In other words, don't vote for anyone if you think his 2022-23 regular season scoring rate will more closely match his 2021-22 regular season scoring rate than his 2022 playoff scoring rate.

Let's look at two hypothetical examples to illustrate things. First is where a skater did better in the playoffs, finishing with a scoring pace of 65 in the 2021-22 regular season but a scoring pace of 87 in the 2022 playoffs, making the midpoint between those numbers a 76 point scoring pace. So if you think that skater will have a 2022-23 regular season scoring pace of 77 points or higher, then you should vote for him since that would be closer to his higher playoff scoring rate. On the other hand, if you believe the same skater's scoring rate for the 2022-23 regular season will be 76 or lower, then don't vote for him since it would be closer to his 2021-22 regular season scoring rate.

Second, is where a skater did worse in the playoffs, finishing with a scoring pace of 66 in the 2021-22 regular season but only 42 in the playoffs. That means the midpoint is 54, such that you should vote for him if you believe his 2022-23 regular season scoring pace will be 53 points or less, since his lower 2022-23 rate would be closer to his comparatively worse 2022 playoff scoring rate than his 2021-22 regular season scoring rate. But you should not vote for him if you think he'll have a 54 point or higher scoring pace for 2022-23 since that would be closer to his 2021-22 regular season scoring rate.

Note that for all assessment purposes, you should consider a skater's scoring rate (i.e., his 82 game point scoring pace) not his actual points scored. Also, this is a poll with no limit to how many or how few skaters you can vote for.

Now that the voting criteria are clear,