The Fantasy Prospects Report was updated late last week, as I jotted down a brief note if a player moved to another organization or league. I didn't plan on any more updates to the FPR, but I'm reading it anyway as I work on the Fantasy Guide. When I go through a team I like to review the prospect pool thoroughly. Since I'm there anyway, I make tweaks. So you may see a couple more minor updates to the FPR yet. It's my OCD brain.

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ANNOUNCEMENT: As a surprise on Saturday, I released the Draft List. Yes, that's right. My projections are out! So you can get a jump start on your own lists, and my colleagues in the industry can go over what I have and adjust their own draft kits for when they release theirs in a few days. I have to be first, it's in my DNA.

While the Draft List is now available, the Fantasy Guide is still slated for a Friday release at the usual 3pm release time. But between you, me and the computer screen – I am working hard to push this out on Thursday. With the projections done, the Advanced Stats analysis done, the columnists work already in, the line combos and other charts done – I just have a few blurbs to write for each team, as well as final adjustments.

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One caveat to releasing the Draft List several days before the Guide (something I've never done before) is – that I am tweaking the odd player. When I put each team into the Guide in their proper line combinations, and go through the game logs of each key player, I occasionally see something that makes me want to adjust. I'm that obsessive-compulsive guy that you want doing this for you. I need to get it right. Since releasing the Draft List, I've already updated it twice – about one or two players per team have been tweaked. With over 900 players projected, by Friday (or Thursday?) when I release the Guide I will probably have changed about 50 of those players. No more than three to six points.

In the Guide itself I denote every change I do. But right now, the price for getting the draft list early is that there are a handful of players that I will tweak. No lower-lineup guys, just the top-end.

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On that note, I wanted to discuss four of them here and disclose what I found and how it changed my thinking.

Jake DeBrusk – After doing his projection, which involved looking at his analytics, studying his track record for goals and games played, and applying my formula based on a small improvement in his situation, I looked at his game log more closely. I was aware that he had secured a spot on the Brad Marchand/Patrice Bergeron line. I didn't know that he had 27 points in his last 34 games. That's a pretty big sample size. I tweaked the variable in my formula to increase improvement likelihood and it spit out another three points on his projection. He's in the Guide as a strong sleeper for more, so that will be denoted in the Draft List as well. His 5on5 S% of 6.7% also indicates a strong likelihood of an upswing at even strength.

Tage Thompson – I knew Thompson got off to a bit of a slow start and picked it up later. Nonetheless, for the most part I had figured that overall his production was fairly steady. I didn't know that he had 50 points in his last 48 games. I mean, he genuinely picked it up to star-caliber numbers. That's a large enough sample size to warrant a bump in what I had originally given him. His tweak was for an additional five points. And his linemate Jeff Skinner got five more points as well. It's time to treat both of them like true first-line point producers, and not second-line producers who fluked a good year.

Noah Hanifin – He's an exceptional-sized player by our definition (6-3, 215 pounds) and last year was to be his breakout year (436 games heading in). In fact, he was a little late. And when there was no tangible increase in his numbers in the first half, I guess I was guilty of writing him off. But he ended up with 21 points in his last 21 games. That's with no change in defense partners (remained Rasmus Andersson) and no tangible increase in ice time (maybe an extra minute or so). He just…went off. I had averaged his numbers over the past couple of seasons and did not adjust for an improved situation. After looking more closely at everything, I made some adjustments and he got a six-point bump over what I had given him earlier.

Seth Jarvis – Jarvis had a strong rookie year, but he was up and down the lineup. I thought he did well to post 40 points on different lines, even producing on the weaker ones, getting scratched a couple of times. In the final quarter of the season though, he actually stuck on the top line with Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen. He picked up 20 points in 22 games in that situation. Carolina line combinations will be pretty fluid this year I think, but if he gets even half of his shifts on that big line then he's going to do better than you'd think. I adjusted the appropriate variable in my formula and it bumped him up by another six points.

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As I continue pounding through the Fantasy Guide this week I will no doubt find other little tidbits that result in small tweaks to one or two players for each team.

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I really wish Bergeron and David Krejci would announce one way or the other what they were doing. Having to re-write much of the Boston section is not overly appealing to me. But what they plan to do will obviously have a huge domino effect across the lineup.

Ditto for Nazem Kadri.

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There are a few unrestricted free agents that I'm curious about. Where will they land? There is a 99.9% chance that, regardless, nothing will come of it. But never say never! I'll be keeping an eye out for:

Sam Steel, Rocco Grimaldi, Zach Aston-Reese, Daniel Sprong, Evgeny Svechnikov and Keith Yandle.

Here are the UFA's who could actually do well, better than 0.01% chance I note above, if put in the right situation:

Evan Rodrigues, Jonathan Dahlen and Paul Stastny.

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As we enter August, it's almost time to keep an eye out for training camp invites. Heading into late-August they should start rolling in. I expect Stastny, Rodrigues, Aston-Reese, PK Subban and Steel to get firm contracts. I expect the rest of the above list, along with Phil Kessel, to get a training camp invite. Kessel will get a contract if he settles for a very (very) low number, otherwise he's looking at a tryout. I can’t see a team giving him any kind of big number if they have an analytics department.

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Short Ramblings today. Back to work on the Guide. See you next Monday.

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