Ramblings: Fantasy Guide Now Available! Best and Worst Goals Saved Above Average (Aug 5)

Ian Gooding

2022-08-05

Dobber pleasantly surprised us all on Thursday by releasing the Fantasy Guide a day early. Maybe you've already checked out the spreadsheet with projections, but now you get the PDF guide complete with the articles, team-by-team analysis, projections, and more! Download or purchase yours today if you haven't already.

I wrote the Goalies to Watch article and contributed to the team-by-team sections on potential injuries, contract year, hits, and goaltending. Due to my own personal schedule, I had to start the team-by-team writeups about a month ago while knowing that information could change in a very transaction-packed July. At the same time, I learned a ton about each team's situation that I hope to be able to apply to my own fantasy teams. Through the rest of the offseason, I hope to take the opportunity to share in the Ramblings a bit of what I've learned. I'll start with goaltending here shortly.

The Sharks have signed Mario Ferraro to a four-year contract with an AAV of $3.25 million. Ferraro doesn't provide a ton of scoring from the blueline, but his hits and blocks totals are high because he receives plenty of icetime (23:00 ATOI in 2021-22). Even though he played just 63 games in 2021-22, Ferraro led the Sharks and finished in the league's top 30 with 291 hits plus blocks. In 2020-21, only six players finished with a higher hits-plus-blocks total than Ferraro (251 HIT+BKS).

Late Thursday, the Devils signed Miles Wood to a one-year contract worth $3.2 million, avoiding arbitration. Wood played in only three games in 2021-22 because of a hip injury.

Even later Thursday, the Flames took care of one very important piece of business, signing recent acquisition Jonathan Huberdeau to an eight-year contract extension with an AAV of $10.5 million. I’ll break this one down some more in tomorrow’s Ramblings.

Last week I discussed quality starts (QS) and really bad starts (RBS), pulling out certain goalies who fared higher or lower than expected with these stats. You can read about it here. In Frozen Tools, you'll see another interesting stat listed along with QS and RBS – a stat known as Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA), which I'll break down today.

Frozen Tools describes Goals Saved Above Average as Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA) as the following: "Calculates goal differential between goalie and league average (positive is better)."

First, here are the top goalies according to total GSAA.

NameAgeTeamGPQSQS%RBSRBS%GSAAGSAA/60
IGOR SHESTERKIN26NYR533769.847.544.850.88
ILYA SOROKIN26NYI523669.2713.529.520.58
JACOB MARKSTROM32CGY633860.369.526.120.42
DARCY KUEMPER32WSH573154.4712.325.120.46
JUUSE SAROS27NSH674364.2811.922.950.35
FREDERIK ANDERSEN32CAR523159.659.622.080.43
TRISTAN JARRY27PIT583763.8610.321.120.37
ANDREI VASILEVSKIY28T.B633961.9711.117.720.28
ANTON FORSBERG29OTT46296361316.220.38
VILLE HUSSO27DET40246037.514.950.38
THATCHER DEMKO26VAN643554.7812.514.930.24

The GSAA stat emphasizes how Igor Shesterkin was far and away the deserving winner of the Vezina Trophy. Shesterkin was tied for fourth with 37 quality starts, which may not stand out on its own. However, his four really bad starts in 53 games is quite remarkable while also demonstrating his reliability. Of the goalies with four or fewer really bad starts, only two (Linus Ullmark, Ville Husso) played 40 games. Barring injury (he missed eight games with a groin injury in December), Shesterkin could reach 60 games for the first time in his career in 2022-23, which would only help his win total.

Anton Forsberg might be a surprise on this list. He was mentioned last week when I wrote about quality start percentage in the Ramblings. 

Next, the worst overall total GSAA among goalies.

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NameAgeTeamGPQSQS%RBSRBS%GSAAGSAA/60
PHILIPP GRUBAUER30SEA551832.71120-26.64-0.51
JOONAS KORPISALO28CBJ22522.7731.8-19.04-1.01
SAM MONTEMBEAULT25MTL381128.9718.4-17.47-0.54
KEVIN LANKINEN27NSH321237.5618.8-15.60-0.52
KAREL VEJMELKA26ARI522242.31528.8-12.97-0.28
ILYA SAMSONOV25TOR441431.81022.7-12.52-0.32
THOMAS GREISS36STL311445.21032.3-11.97-0.48
CAL PETERSEN27L.A372156.8924.3-11.81-0.33
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD25N.J25832312-11.02-0.47
ALEX NEDELJKOVIC26DET592847.51118.6-10.97-0.20
JON GILLIES28ARI20630420-10.85-0.65

Although Philipp Grubauer was going to lose value moving from Colorado to Seattle, goaltending was supposed to be the strength for the Kraken, meaning Grubauer could still be a half-decent option. Yet it seemed like Grubauer could never gain any traction in the expansion team's net. He had a fairly decent stretch from mid-January to mid-March, where he posted a sub-3.00 GAA and .900 SV% with eight wins in 20 games. Okay, I'm really reaching for something here because his numbers potentially destroyed fantasy teams more than any other goalie could in 2021-22. If the Kraken can improve somewhat from their inaugural season, then he may have some hope. Otherwise, he should be one of the last starting goalies drafted.

Next are the top-ranked goalies for GSAA/60 (minimum 15 GP).

NameAgeTeamGPQSQS%RBSRBS%GSAAGSAA/60
IGOR SHESTERKIN26NYR533769.847.544.850.88
ILYA SOROKIN26NYI523669.2713.529.520.58
DARCY KUEMPER32WSH573154.4712.325.120.46
FREDERIK ANDERSEN32CAR523159.659.622.080.43
JACOB MARKSTROM32CGY633860.369.526.120.42
ERIC COMRIE27BUF191052.615.37.150.42
ANTON FORSBERG29OTT46296361316.220.38
VILLE HUSSO27DET40246037.514.950.38
TRISTAN JARRY27PIT583763.8610.321.120.37
JUUSE SAROS27NSH674364.2811.922.950.35
ANTHONY STOLARZ28ANA281553.6414.38.240.33

There's Shesterkin again with a commanding lead in this category. This number shows that he saved his team nearly a goal per game. In a league where one goal can often be the difference between winning and losing, Shesterkin was the Rangers' most valuable player in 2021-22.

I'll also take this opportunity to bring up Eric Comrie. The Sabres' goalie situation is hardly ideal, but Comrie could emerge as the starter after being Connor Hellebuyck's little-used understudy in 2021-22. A total of 19 games is hardly a large sample size when it comes to goalies, so Comrie barely made this list with its 15-game minimum. In addition, Comrie has played only 28 career games with not more than three games in any of his previous five seasons. Yet if cap hit and term are important criteria to determine who will start, Comrie has the upper hand on both Craig Anderson and Malcolm Subban with the two-year, $1.8 million contract he signed this offseason as a free agent.

Anthony Stolarz finished just outside of the top 10 on this list. It's worth mentioning that he has posted better numbers than John Gibson for two consecutive seasons, albeit with a much lighter workload. I don't see Stolarz challenging Gibson for the starting job, as Gibson has the big contract (five more seasons at $6.4 million per). Yet maybe he can cut into Gibson's workload a little more in 2022-23.

Finally, the worst GSAA/60 (minimum 15 GP).

NameAgeTeamGPQSQS%RBSRBS%GSAAGSAA/60
JOONAS KORPISALO28CBJ22522.7731.8-19.04-1.01
DAVID RITTICH29WPG17423.5317.6-9.01-0.66
JON GILLIES28ARI20630420-10.85-0.65
PETR MRAZEK30CHI20735525-9.64-0.56
SAM MONTEMBEAULT25MTL381128.9718.4-17.47-0.54
KEVIN LANKINEN27NSH321237.5618.8-15.60-0.52
PHILIPP GRUBAUER30SEA551832.71120-26.64-0.51
FILIP GUSTAVSSON24MIN18738.9633.3-8.62-0.49
THOMAS GREISS36STL311445.21032.3-11.97-0.48
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD25N.J25832312-11.02-0.47

Joonas Korpisalo turned what was the league's worst GSAA/60 into a one-year extension worth $1.3 million. Fine work, if you can get it. It's fair to say this is Korpisalo's final chance at the NHL, and he'll have to improve those numbers significantly to stay in Columbus with Elvis Merzlikins starting and Daniil Tarasov knocking on the door. Korpisalo also had the second-worst overall GSAA behind Grubauer and could have had the worst number had he played more games. But from what he played, Korpisalo allowed one more goal than the average goalie. Korpisalo was also the only goalie with at least 15 games played to post more really bad starts (7) than quality starts (5). He wasn't the right streaming option if you added him at least once.

I should qualify all of this by saying that Korpisalo was dealing with a hip injury that eventually ended his season and required surgery. Hip injuries can be especially problematic for a goalie, especially if he did in fact try to play through it.

Follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding for more fantasy hockey.

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Mar 28 - 19:03 OTT vs CHI
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Mar 28 - 19:03 CAR vs DET
Mar 28 - 20:03 MIN vs S.J
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Mar 28 - 20:03 WPG vs VGK
Mar 28 - 21:03 EDM vs L.A
Mar 28 - 21:03 COL vs NYR
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Starting Goalies

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TAGE THOMPSON BUF
JJ PETERKA BUF
ANTHONY DUCLAIR T.B
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ALEKSEI KOLOSOV PHI
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17.9 YEGOR SHARANGOVICH ANDREI KUZMENKO JONATHAN HUBERDEAU
17.6 CONNOR ZARY MARTIN POSPISIL NAZEM KADRI
16.6 ANDREW MANGIAPANE BLAKE COLEMAN MIKAEL BACKLUND

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