Before I drop the puck on Bubble Keeper Week…

The August edition of the Top 100 Roto Rankings will be posted shortly. In the meantime, please leave any feedback on the rankings. Some of you might be using them for drafts come September, so any input you can provide or even questions about the rankings of certain players is welcomed.

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I'm going to start Bubble Keeper Week with four players that I need to make a decision on this month. The league I'm in doesn't have a flat number of maximum keepers, although there are a bunch of other rules regarding keepers that mean that I can't keep every player. These rules generally have to do with both contract length (when I acquire a player, I can sign the player for multiple seasons, depending on how I acquire the player) and the number of league points the player records in a contract year (above a certain number means they automatically go to free agency, below a certain number means I have the option of keeping them). These decisions aren't necessarily about keeping one player over the other, although the league has a slow draft auction with a salary cap for free agents.

As I mentioned on Twitter, the first two players listed below had some unexpectedly strong stretches through part of the 2021-22 season. The last two players are projected to be backup goalies who you probably wouldn't think about that much, but I'll try to make the discussion on them fantasy-relevant anyway.

Started working on my first Bubble Keeper Week article last night. It involves a real-life keeper decision that I have to make on several players soon. Includes at least two players that had interesting and somewhat unexpected stretches last season. https://t.co/grvy2R5ySV

— Ian Gooding (@Ian_Gooding) August 11, 2022

Jake DeBrusk

Which version of DeBrusk should we expect in 2022-23? DeBrusk had vastly underperformed in the shortened 2020-21 season (14 PTS in 41 GP) and had struggled into the first half of 2021-22 (14 PTS in 35 GP). Not satisfied with his situation with the Bruins, DeBrusk had reportedly asked for a trade last season. Then during the fourth quarter, he was bumped up to a line with Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron and had an outstanding fourth quarter with 10 goals and 16 points in 20 games.

Add to that the fact that it's been an eventful offseason for the Bruins. Marchand and Charlie McAvoy will miss the first part of the season. The uncertainty of Patrice Bergeron's situation also added to forecasting that the Bruins would take a step back in 2022-23, but both Bergeron and David Krejci will be returning, bolstering the lineup. Bruce Cassidy was also let go as coach, which may be a reason that DeBrusk reportedly rescinded his trade request. 

Fantasy Take: Bruins Hire Montgomery as Head Coach

DeBrusk can play both wings, which gives new coach Jim Montgomery the option on moving him up to a top line that would feature Bergeron and David Pastrnak. That could result in production similar to his fourth-quarter output, although he could take a step back if he is moved off the top line. DeBrusk is clearly a better player than he showed during 2020-21, and it sounds like he'll be happier and more productive going forward. That being said, he hasn't demonstrated enough consistency to exceed 50 points at any point in his career. That's probably a reasonable scoring expectation for the 25-year-old winger for the coming season.   

Sean Durzi

Durzi wasn't expected to make much of an impact in 2021-22, but injuries to the Kings blueline necessitated an early callup. Durzi stood out as an effective performer, particularly on the power play, which ensured that he was not sent back down to the AHL.

Only three rookie defensemen recorded a higher point total than Durzi (27 PTS), while only two rookie defensemen (Moritz Seider, Bowen Byram) recorded a higher point-per-game total than Durzi (0.42 PTS/GP). Durzi was particularly effective on the power play, where only Seider posted more power-play points than Durzi (14 PPP) among rookie d-men. In particular, Durzi's 87.5% PP IPP suggests that he is heavily involved in the Kings' power play, which I've also noticed in the Kings highlights that I've watched.

So Durzi should be able to build on that point total, right? Not so fast. Durzi received 66 percent of his team's power-play minutes once Drew Doughty was sidelined in early March with a wrist injury. Prior to that, Durzi averaged only about 40 percent of the power-play minutes while on the second unit. Doughty's return could mean that Durzi is bumped down to the second unit, although it's possible that Durzi's effectiveness on the power play could force the Kings to adopt a 3 F – 2 D first unit to accommodate both defensemen.

You will probably have to wait for Durzi to hit his upside, especially with defensemen such as Doughty, Alex Edler, and Sean Walker returning to the Kings' lineup from extended injuries. The worst-case scenario is that Durzi has trouble consistently getting into the lineup, particularly if his defensive game isn't up to par. The best-case scenario is first-unit power-play time all to himself, particularly with Doughty now 32 and possibly feeling the effects of heavy minutes. I'll be an optimist here and bet the over on him reaching at least 30 points, as he showed plenty of positives from his rookie season.

Antti Raanta

Is it better to keep a starting goalie from a poor team or a backup goalie from a strong team on your fantasy roster? There might not be a simple answer for this, but it depends on what goalie stats your league keeps track of. If your league is heavily concentrated on wins and saves and you're not heavily penalized for goals allowed, then any high-volume starter is ideal. However, if goals allowed and/or poor ratios can sink your goaltending and consequently your entire team, then the strong backup might be better. Ideally as a handcuff.

Frederik Andersen was my number one goalie last season, so his late-season injury came at an inopportune time for me as I was in my fantasy playoffs. Fortunately, I had kept Raanta on my bench all season, and he managed to win three of his last four games of the season. Raanta can't seem to start a string of games without incurring some kind of injury, which is why he seems better suited for a backup role. Since Andersen becomes a free agent due to league rules, I will only try to add Raanta again if I can first reacquire Andersen through the league auction. In many other leagues, Raanta will be an ideal streaming option who should only be kept in deeper formats.  

James Reimer

A Twitter follower asked me whether I think San Jose will have bottom-5 goaltending this coming season. I told him that I didn't think so, but bottom-5 is a more definite possibility. Why don't I list out the teams that I think will have worse goaltending than the Sharks: Arizona and Chicago for sure, then maybe Anaheim, Buffalo, Montreal (if Carey Price remains injured), New Jersey, Philadelphia, and Seattle. Add the two for-sures with half of the maybes and you'd have five teams with worse goaltending than San Jose. The Sharks may not be bottom-5, but they're knocking on the door.

To complicate matters, the Sharks may have a three-headed monster brewing in net. As the new guy with the (slightly) larger contract, Kaapo Kahkonen should be the starter for the Sharks. That leaves Adin Hill and Reimer to fight for the rest of the starts. Hill has battled injuries throughout his career, but he should still have some trade value if the Sharks want to upgrade elsewhere or add more draft picks. It's hard to say what's left for Reimer, who appeared in the most games (48 GP) among any Sharks goalie last season. With Kahkonen now in the picture, don't expect Reimer to reach that total again, barring injury. Although he kept his ratios decent (2.92 GAA, .911 SV%, 58.3 QS%), he can probably be left on the waiver wire in many leagues.

Footnote to this: There's a fifth player I need to decide on as well, which is Mike Smith. It sounds like he will at least start the season on LTIR, so I will automatically not be retaining him and will use the cap space and roster space on active players instead.

The fact that three of the five players listed here are goalies suggests that I have been using a very short-term strategy when it comes to goalies. If I decide not to keep any of these goalies, then I will enter the free agency period without any goalies. I don't like to go heavy on goalie bids both in amount and term simply because of the unpredictable nature of goalie performance. Yet given my potential lack of options at that position, I may be forced to place bids that are larger than I'm comfortable with.

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Some interesting dialog on my Twitter account about the World Juniors after I posted my poll question about whether you are watching. After all that, I managed to catch a bit of Canada's game against Czechia today. In case you missed it, here is a successful lacrosse goal from Kent Johnson.

Kent Johnson puts Canada up late in the first with the Michigan! #WorldJuniors pic.twitter.com/CaS79vMuc8

— TSN (@TSN_Sports) August 13, 2022

Logan Cooley attempted one earlier in the day, but it didn't quite go as planned.

Logan Cooley 👀 #WorldJuniors pic.twitter.com/hnlUZxLsUR

— TSN (@TSN_Sports) August 13, 2022

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Follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding for more fantasy hockey.