It’s Bubble Keeper Week here at DobberHockey! Across the website, you’ll be treated to articles discussing players you're on the fence about keeping in your fantasy leagues. In this week's Eastern Edge, the focus will be Martin Necas but I'll also share a few thoughts on Brock Nelson.

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Martin Necas

The young forward had a strong start to his career, pacing for 46 points in his rookie campaign and 63 points in his sophomore season. Unfortunately, he couldn't carry that momentum into year three, scoring at a mediocre 42-point pace last season. The decline in scoring may have been a product of reduced ice time, as he skated 16 minutes per game last year after averaging 17 minutes the year before. However, I'm hesitant to conclude that a one-minute drop in ice time could cause such a significant reduction in Necas' production – especially considering he still spent most of his time in the top-six, with exposure to lots of high-end talent.

Another number that stands out as we compare Necas' impressive second year with his lacklustre third year is power-play production. In year two, he racked up 11 points with the man advantage over 53 appearances (0.21 PPPs/game). Those are strong numbers considering he was stuck in a secondary role, seeing just 40% of the team's total power-play time. Despite holding a similar volume of power-play time in year three, his production fell off, as he posted a measly four power-play points through 78 outings (0.05 PPPs/game). Now, if his share of power-play time didn't change much, how come his production fell so dramatically? Well, it wasn't about how much he was playing, but who he was playing with. In year two, he spent significant stretches beside Andrei Svechnikov and Sebastian Aho on the top unit, and even had some exposure to Teuvo Teravainen while on the second unit. In contrast, year three saw him spend most of his power-play time beside forwards like Nino Niederreiter, Seth Jarvis, and one of Max Domi or Jesperi Kotkaniemi.

As Necas enters year four, I don't expect his power-play fortune will improve much. Although Vincent Trocheck's departure creates an opening on the team's top unit, Necas has a fair amount of competition for that spot. If Carolina wants someone to replace Trocheck's net-front presence, Jordan Staal has the right tools for the job and has had success in that role before. If they're looking for the most offensively gifted option, Seth Jarvis likely gets a shot. If they're looking to boost the confidence and facilitate the development of a young player whom they've committed to long term, then maybe Kotkaniemi is the guy. Whoever gets the call to start the season could very well be replaced by Max Pacioretty whenever he returns from injury.

When the Hurricanes traded for Pacioretty last month, Necas was bumped out of Carolina's projected top-six, and his fantasy value fell. However, last week, we learned that Pacioretty will be sidelined for the first four months of the 2022-2023 campaign while he recovers from a torn Achilles. As a result, Necas should have a role in the top-six to start the year – likely beside Kotkaniemi and Andrei Svechnikov. The thing is, Necas produced poorly last year despite holding a top-six role, primarily skating beside Trocheck and Svechnikov. Trocheck last year is a better player than Kotkaniemi is projected to be this year. So, although recent news of Pacioretty's injury and extended absence makes it seem like Necas' fantasy outlook has improved, when you widen the scope, it appears that Necas will be in a worse situation this season than he was in last year. Even though he should start in the top-six, he'll likely fall to the third line with less talented linemates once Pacioretty returns.  

From a fantasy perspective, I'm not incredibly optimistic about Necas this season. I think there are too many obstacles between him and a consistent role on the top power-play – which, in my mind, is key for his fantasy value. In addition, he might be relegated to the bottom-six when Pacioretty returns from injury. With those factors in mind, if I'm in a keeper league and looking to contend for a title this season, I'd probably be willing to cut ties with Necas. However, I still believe in the player and think he'll be a valuable asset in the medium to long term – maybe even as soon as the 2023-2024 campaign. So, if that timeline works for you, then keeping him might be the better option.

Brock Nelson

I'm optimistic about Nelson because the Islanders finally seem to have a strong power play, quarterbacked by Noah Dobson. Significant production with the man advantage is something that Nelson hasn't really had throughout his career, but it could go a long way in helping him remain a consistent 65-point player over the next few years. That seems like a lofty projection, but he's scored at such a pace in two of the last three seasons – although I don't think public perception of Nelson has yet risen to reflect recent accomplishments.

To contrast the positivity, there are also reasons to be concerned about Nelson's fantasy outlook going forward. For starters, last year's impressive 37-goal campaign was achieved on the back of a 21.6% shooting percentage. In previous years, Nelson had been scoring on 14-15% of his shots, so last year's high shooting percentage will be hard to replicate this year. Another factor to consider is that recent rumours have linked free agent center Nazem Kadri to the Islanders. If Kadri signs with the Islanders, Nelson would likely fall down the depth chart and see less offensive deployment. I may be putting too much stock into rumours, but I've seen enough reports that I'm willing to take a leap of faith and cut ties with Nelson in keeper leagues if push comes to shove.