Eastern Edge: Fantasy Outlooks for Brock Nelson and Martin Necas

Brennan Des

2022-08-16

It’s Bubble Keeper Week here at DobberHockey! Across the website, you’ll be treated to articles discussing players you're on the fence about keeping in your fantasy leagues. In this week's Eastern Edge, the focus will be Martin Necas but I'll also share a few thoughts on Brock Nelson.

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Martin Necas

The young forward had a strong start to his career, pacing for 46 points in his rookie campaign and 63 points in his sophomore season. Unfortunately, he couldn't carry that momentum into year three, scoring at a mediocre 42-point pace last season. The decline in scoring may have been a product of reduced ice time, as he skated 16 minutes per game last year after averaging 17 minutes the year before. However, I'm hesitant to conclude that a one-minute drop in ice time could cause such a significant reduction in Necas' production – especially considering he still spent most of his time in the top-six, with exposure to lots of high-end talent.

Another number that stands out as we compare Necas' impressive second year with his lacklustre third year is power-play production. In year two, he racked up 11 points with the man advantage over 53 appearances (0.21 PPPs/game). Those are strong numbers considering he was stuck in a secondary role, seeing just 40% of the team's total power-play time. Despite holding a similar volume of power-play time in year three, his production fell off, as he posted a measly four power-play points through 78 outings (0.05 PPPs/game). Now, if his share of power-play time didn't change much, how come his production fell so dramatically? Well, it wasn't about how much he was playing, but who he was playing with. In year two, he spent significant stretches beside Andrei Svechnikov and Sebastian Aho on the top unit, and even had some exposure to Teuvo Teravainen while on the second unit. In contrast, year three saw him spend most of his power-play