Welcome back to Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, a play on words of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. Instead of there being three bowls of porridge though, I cover three skaters and declare one too hot (i.e., doing unsustainably better than he should), another too cold (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a third “just right” (i.e., producing where he should be). In addition, I also assign each a rating of 1-10, indicating how hot (rated 7-10, where 10 is the most unsustainably hot), cold (rated 1-4, where 1 is the most unsustainably cold), or “just right” (rated 4-7, where 5.5 is the most “just right”) he is.

Of all the Roos Lets Loose columns, Goldipucks is the one most amenable to Bubble Keeper Week; so although there was a regular edition of my Goldipucks column just last week, I'm going back to the well again. On tap for Bubble Keeper Week are Victor Olofsson, Kailer Yamamoto, and Anthony Cirelli. Stop now to guess who was too hot, too cold, and just right for 2021-22, and then, as usual, check to see if you were on the money for all three.

Victor Olofsson (72 games, 20G, 29A, 164 SOG, 12 PPPts, 15:21 TOI, 2:14 PP, 47.6% PP%)

Drafted back in 2014, the now 27-year-old Olofsson didn't make it to the NHL for good until the 2019-20 season, going from virtual unknown to household name thanks to 42 points in 54 games, for a 64-point scoring pace. But as quickly as poolies flocked to Olofsson, he fell out of favor, dropping to a 47-point pace in 2020-21 and igniting whispers that his success in his first full season was due to being tethered to Jack Eichel. But Olofsson rebounded in 2021-22 to the tune of a 56-point pace. Which season represented the real Olofsson? I'd say 2019-20, as Olofsson's sniper ways, coupled with an improved Sabres team, should put his downside at 60 points, with 65 more realistic and 70+ within reason.

When looking at Olofsson, his season-long totals definitely are not representative of the player he had become by the end of the season, amassing 19 points in his final 16 games and tallying five of his 12 total PPPts, plus firing 38 SOG. Even more impressive is this occurred while skating predominantly with Casey Mittelstadt and Kyle Okposo at even strength.

In fact, Olofsson was a big part of Buffalo coming into its own as a team, as although the Sabres finished 2021-22 ranked 22nd in goals scored per game at 2.79, in their last 20 contests of the season – when Olofsson had 21 points – they upped that rate to 3.40 and that was despite being shut out twice. With Olofsson scoring at a 56-point pace when the team finished with 2.79 goals per game, if they had instead been at 3.4 all season then his scoring pace – on paper – would have risen to 68, or even higher than his rookie rate.

Looking at the PP, Olofsson started the season on the top unit, taking the ice for at least 50% of his team's man advantage minutes in all but three of its first 22 games; and in those three, he was never below 47.8%. What did he have to show for it? Just three PPPts, two of which came in the first game of the season. After that, he was failed to see 50%+ of his team PP minutes in the next 16 games, tallying zero PPPts. While he wasn't commanding top PP minutes every game during his Q4 hot streak, he did top the 50% mark for four, in which he had a total of four PPPts. Also, Olofsson ranks 22nd in PPGs among forwards over the past three seasons, with all but two of those ahead of him having played more than his 182 combined games. Plus, his 506 minutes of combined PP time ranked him only 72nd among forwards with only four of the 35 who had more PPTOI but less than 600 total PP minutes having more PPGs than him. What this means is Olofsson should be back on the top unit again for 2022-23, with improved PPPts – and, thus, points – to show for it.

Olofsson also had a career worst 57.1% IPP on the PP; so that renormalizing should help improve his PP scoring and, in turn, his points output as well. On the other hand, his IPP overall was 72.1%, which was up a good bit from the 61.8% and 61.5% that he had in his first two seasons. Part of that was playing alongside less talented players; but it also was likely indicative of Olofsson coming into his own as a player, as was the fact that his hot streak came in games 168-188 of his career, i.e., right as he was approaching his 200-game breakout threshold, which still applies even though he's older than most at this stage of their careers. Together these bode well for him in 2022-23 whether he plays with the more talented Sabre forwards, or not. And although ostensibly he sits behind Alex Tuch in the depth chart for Left Wings, let's not forget that Tuch is a Band-Aid Boy, making it so it is likely Olofsson will get a chance to play with "the big boys" at some point in 2022-23, where if he does well enough he could push Tuch to the second line.

What about player comparables? Looking at forwards who, like Olofsson, potted over 25 PPGs in their first four seasons despite playing under 200 games and not averaging 2.5 SOG per game, no recent players likewise met those criteria. Going back a little further, he compares most favorably to Stephane Richer, Donald Audette, and Steve Larmer, with Larmer becoming a major star, Audette twice scoring over a point per game, and Richer having one 91-point season plus two campaigns over 70+ points. Pretty good company to be in, I'd say.

Olofsson, like Buffalo as a team, does not look great when viewed in terms of the entire 2021-22 season; however, if we focus on what he, and the team, did in Q4, they were firing on all cylinders. Given his performance, and his demonstrated PP acumen, Olofsson should be able to solidify a spot in the top-six and land back on PP1. As such, Olofsson's 2021-22 was TOO COLD and he gets a rating of 2.0, as in 2022-23 he should be able to tally 65+ points, with a better chance of rising to 70 than falling below 60.

Kailer Yamamoto (82 games, 20G, 20A, 114 SOG, 6 PPPts, 16:52 TOI, 0:49 PP, 18.2% PP%)

The diminutive Yamamoto had a nine-game trial in his 2017 draft year. After that it looked like he might be a "tweener" who'd bounce between the AHL and NHL. At the end of 2019-20, however, he proceeded to tally 26 points in 27 games, ending his trips to the AHL. But poolies with visions of Yamamoto succeeding alongside Connor McDavid and/or Leon Draisatl were left sorely disappointed when, in 2020-21 he played in 25 more games but actually tallied five fewer points. Still, Edmonton stuck with him, and he skated for 81 games for 2021-22, nearly reaching the point per game mark. What does the future likely hold for Yamamoto? Probably more of the same as we saw last season.

One key about Yamamoto's 2021-22 was he had nine games of two points and one where he scored three, meaning he had more than half his 40 points in just ten games, with 19 games of one point and 52 contests where he had zero points, including three separate stretches of zero points in 7+ games. Looking at forwards who had under 45 points but likewise ten or more multipoint games while skating in 75+ contests, they consisted of Nicolas Roy, Dylan Cozens, Evan Rodrigues, Evgeni Dadonov, Anthony Cirelli, who'll be covered next, Frederick Gaudreau, Brandon Hagel, Jordan Eberle, and Jack Roslovic. Looking solely at those who, like Yamamoto, have played 200+ games, we see a group of players whose best fantasy days are behind them (Dadonov, Eberle) or those (Gaudreau, Roslovic) who look like they might disappoint, plus Cirelli. Not encouraging.

Another interesting tidbit about Yamamoto's 2021-22 is despite him only skating for 18.2% of his team's man advantage minutes, he was above 57% in 14 games spread throughout the season. The result? Three of his six PPPts. That's pretty good, as is the fact his IPP on the PP was 66.7% both in 2021-22 and his breakout 2019-20 season. The problem is he never could find a permanent spot on the top unit. And even if Jesse Puljujarvi is traded, he still has the likes of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman, and Evander Kane as favorites to stake a claim alongside McDavid and Draisaitl on PP1, meaning that despite Yamamoto being capable of posting good PP numbers, he's unlikely to get a chance on the top unit.

So then Yamamoto slides onto PP2, meaning he likely sees time with not only one of those three (or four if Pool Party stays) but also Tyson Barrie or Evan Bouchard, right? Not so fast. Yamamoto had no PP time whatsoever in 40 of his 81 contests. Yes, half of those were in his first 23 games; however, it shows that he's not going to get PP time by default, which, in turn, means if he doesn't play well he won't get PP time. It's a vicious cycle of sorts, and not a recipe for success. But the good news is it really can't get much worse, since as a whole he ended up with about a minute of PP time in each of Q2, Q3, and Q4. Holding out hope for gains in PP time, or, thus, PP scoring, is not realistic.

The other issue with Yamamoto is his IPP. In that magical last third of 2019-20 it was above 70%, which, at the time, was quite encouraging. The issue is in 2020-21 it was 52.5% and in 2021-22 it was only slightly higher at 55.6%. This shows not only that when Yamamoto is blessed with the opportunity to take the ice with McDavid or Draisaitl he isn't finding a way to score, but when he skates alongside those with less talent, he isn't rising to the occasion. It's a worst of both worlds and doesn't bode well for him upping his scoring.

Looking at secondary assist rate, at first it seems like great news, as Yamamoto's was 35.0% this season, which was a career high. Although it's bad for one's secondary assist rate to be too high, it also isn't ideal if it's too low, as this further underscores he is not a creator of offense since if he is only scoring when he gets a goal or a primary assist, his points total will suffer. Cases in point are forwards in 2021-22 who had a scoring rate of 30-40 points but a lower secondary assist rate than his 35%, namely Dalton Heinen, Sam Gagner and Ryan Donato, who are barely NHLers at this point, Mikael Backlund, whose scoring rate has dropped for two straight seasons, Anthony Beauvillier, who had his second worst full season, Jake Evans and Pierre Engvall, players with under 200 games of NHL experience but little to no realistic upside, Craig Smith, who failed to capitalize on chances in Boston's top-six, Lars Eller, who's a bottom-sixer, Andreas Johnsson, who's looking like a point per every other game player at best, and Frank Vatrano. In other words, lots of subpar players, and only one, in Vatrano, who could have realistic upside, essentially validating that too low of a secondary assist rate, in the face of a likewise low scoring rate, is just as bad if not arguably worse than too high a percentage.

Yamamoto is tantalizing not only because of what he did in 2019-20 but also due to his age and ability to skate alongside Connor McDavid and/or Leon Draisaitl. Unfortunately, the reality is Yamamoto is an inconsistent scorer who fares well on the PP but is low on the PP pecking order, and simply doesn't factor into scoring enough to see improvement. But at the same time, it's difficult to see him faring worse, at least for the time being; therefore, his 2021-21 was JUST RIGHT, and he gets a rating of 5.5. Yamamoto should be considered a point per every other game player in the near term, but someone who also might eventually run out of chances and then be gone from the NHL.

Anthony Cirelli (76 games, 17G, 26A, 166 SOG, 8 PPPts, 18:19 TOI, 1:26 PP, 28.3% PP%)

A former third round pick, Cirelli was in juniors through his teens before a solid season in the AHL that led to him skating in 18 games for Tampa in 2017-18, in which he tallied 11 points and punched his ticket to the NHL for good. Since then though, it's been an up and down journey, which as many seasons of below point per game scoring as above. Having only just turned 25 in July, and on a potent Lightning team, is Cirelli biding his time before he explodes? Quite the contrary, as I think his trajectory suggests his seasons of less than point per every other game output represent the real Cirelli.

Two trends stick out for Cirelli, and not in a good way. First, his shooting percentage has dropped every season he's been in the NHL, and this despite his shooting rate holding fairly steady from 1.4-1.9 every campaign. Second, as 2021-22 unfolded, Cirelli's ice time fell with each passing quarter, such that by Q4 he was taking the ice for nearly four minutes less per game than he was in Q1. Moreover, Cirelli was able to stake out a regular PP spot in Q1 and Q2, averaging 2:24 and 2:00 per game, respectively, with the man advantage. But there too the bottom fell out, as he failed to see even 45 seconds of PP time per game in Q3 or Q4.

Why the change? Simple – Cirelli fell out of the top-six both overall and, to a large extent, on the PP as well. He played well in his new role in the bottom-six, helping shut down the opposing team's top line. But that came at the expense of his offense, as he had 17 points in his final 38 games, which, unfortunately, seems like a preview of things to come.

Cirelli's shut down role extended to the PK, with him taking the ice for 41.9% of his team's SH minutes. That was not new, as in fact he had a higher percentage in two of the prior three seasons. The issue is that after 2020-21, when his SH% went down and PP% went up, both numbers reversed direction in 2021-22. And looking at the 29 forwards who skated in 60+ games and had a higher percentage of SH minutes than Cirelli's 41.9% and but likewise didn't take the ice for 33% or more of their team's PP minutes, none scored at a pace higher than 30 points, with all but two not averaging a point per every three games.

Also, like Yamamoto, Cirelli's points – when they did come – tended to be in bunches. Of his ten games of two points, only three came in the second half, which is consistent with him taking on a less offensively-focused role. The forwards who also scored in bunches but not a lot, as already alluded to above, do not make for favorable comparisons.

Perhaps most troubling of all Cirelli's issues though is his IPP, which only once was even 60%, and then was only 60.3%. This suggests Cirelli's scoring has been bolstered by the Tampa offense, rather than by his talent. With Cirelli having shared the ice with a variety of skaters in his career, some of which – including Steven Stamkos in 2019-20 – being quite talented, the takeaway is Cirelli is a passenger not playmaker, relying on talent of others to give him the points he manages to get. With Cirelli looking like he's now going to be in a purely bottom-six role, that will make it tougher for him to put up points, even on a team as stacked as Tampa Bay and especially since Cirelli's PP time appears to be evaporating.

It's likewise bad news when looking at OZ%, which for Cirelli was 44.1% in 2021-22 and only once in the past three seasons has been above 50% and even then was only 50.1. Moreover, his secondary assist rate was 69.2% in 2020-21 and 50.0% this past season, so he stands more likely to lose points than gain them due to that factor.

Having only turned 25 last month, and on the high scoring Lightning, the future should be bright for Cirelli. But he has morphed into a role that puts him squarely in the bottom-six and, on special teams, focusing far more on the PK than the PP. Beyond that, he's never shown traits of being a scorer due to a low overall IPP, and his secondary assists percentage being, if anything, unsustainably high. It might just be that 2021-22 will mark the last time, at least for a while, that Cirelli reaches the point per every other game mark. As such, his 2021-22 was TOO HOT, and he gets a rating of 8.25, with the expectation being that he will score closer to a 40-point pace, or even below that threshold, in 2022-23 and beyond. Given this, plus Cirelli being out until late 2022 or early 2023 while recovering from surgery and his salary set to rise from $4.8M to $6.25M per season in 2023-24, you'll almost assuredly have better keeper options for your team in any league, but especially cap leagues.

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Questions for Mailbag

My next monthly mailbag still has room for a couple more questions. To get yours to me, you can either (1) private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums or, (2) send an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.