The Journey: Bubble Prospect Keepers (Jenik, Andrae, Primeau)
Ben Gehrels
2022-08-20
Welcome back to The Journey, where we follow hockey prospects and their paths to the NHL, providing fantasy predictions and analysis along the way.
This week is Bubble Keeper week where the writers at Dobber weigh in on tough keeper decisions, so we will push the next edition of the Exploiting Short Memories series about thoughtfully leveraging Breakout Thresholds (read Part 1 here) to next week. Instead, we will consider a few prospects who might be right on the edge of earning a place on your farm team.
Dobber's rankings for each player are included to provide some context about how highly they are valued in general.
Jan Jenik, RW, ARI
Dobber's rank: 42nd overall
It has been a slow but steady burn for Jenik since 2019-20 (his Draft+2 year) when he first popped onto fantasy radars after scoring just over two points per game—albeit in a limited 27-game sample. I take notice whenever a player in junior, even an overager, hovers around a two ppg pace because it is such a rare milestone.
Mathew Barzal, for reference, scored 79 points in 41 WHL games in his D+2 (not quite two ppg) before exploding for 85 points the following year as an NHL rookie. Dylan Guenther, Jenik's fellow Arizona prospect, also hit two ppg but in his draft year (only 12 games).
Of course, Jenik plays a very different game than both Barzal and Guenther. He is a skilled pest who loves to throw hits and agitate his opponents while also hurting them on the scoresheet with slick hands and a wicked wrist shot.
He excels at elevating the puck in tight with both his forehand and backhand.
Ever since spending his draft year in the second-tier Czechia league, Jenik has been a year or two behind in his development from where we would want a high-end NHL prospect to be. He seemed to take a year to acclimate to the OHL in his D+1 before exploding in his D+2. Then he showed the same pattern in the AHL: he took a year to adjust, then busted out last year for 47 points in 51 games.
One thing that makes Jenik an attractive keeper is that his wait time is minimal. He is heading into the final year of his entry-level contract with Arizona and has a decent chance of sticking with the big club in 2022-23. He has more scoring upside than he gets credit for in fantasy and profiles as a Max Comtois type who can play in the top six and collect a haul of points, shots, PIMs, and hits.
In his brief 13-game NHL audition last year, Jenik recorded three points, 25 hits, and 22 shots with just over 10 minutes on ice per game. Those are 82-game totals of 20 points, 157 hits, and 138 shots.
With more ice time, even if his rates lag a bit, those totals will be even higher. Although he has fallen off the radar of late, Jenik might be worth a keeper slot on your farm for one last year. Even if his ultimate ceiling ends up being lower than some of his peers (Dobber projects his upside in the 70s), there just are not many prospects who can offer his immediate blend of physicality and scoring.
Emil Andrae, D, PHI
Dobber's rank: 50th overall
Standing at only 5-9, Andrae has endured a predictable gauntlet of doubt in fantasy circles. Increasingly predictable too are the counter-arguments that mention "the modern blue liner" who relies more on speed and hockey sense than size to excel.
Both are true for Andrae. His size will be a hurdle that he is more than capable of overcoming with his notable quickness and next-level hockey sense.
The other knock on Andrae historically has been a long wait time. He played for HV71 in the Allsvenskan, Sweden's second-tier league, last year in his D+2, which is a bit odd to see for a top prospect. But he also played for HV71 the year before when they were in the SHL—the problem was they got relegated after that year and had to earn their way back. They did so and will play in the SHL again in 2022-23 partly on the strength of Andrae's phenomenal 33 points in 41 games.
Andrae is an excellent, high-upside prospect to sit on in dynasty formats. But in a keeper league where farm spots are limited, you will want to look elsewhere for now despite his incredible season and promising trajectory. He will likely cross over to the AHL in 2023-24 and then make the jump to the NHL a year or two after that, which is a long time to keep a player parked on your farm.
Another consideration, however, is his value as a trade chip. Andrae has consistently excelled for Sweden internationally, and this year's World Junior Championship was no different. Heading into Saturday's bronze medal match, Andrae was eighth overall in tournament scoring, second amongst defencemen behind Olen Zellweger (ANA), with eight points in only six games.
The WJC buzz is real, and it is in full effect about Andrae right now.
If you have an open spot on your farm in a keeper format, you might be able to capitalize on the tournament hype by keeping and flipping him to another manager who sees the skill but does not realize (or care) that Andrae will not see meaningful minutes in the NHL until maybe 2025-26.
Cayden Primeau, G, MTL
Dobber's rank: 15th overall
Outside of the top goalie prospects like Jesper Wallstedt and Yaroslav Askarov, I would not usually advocate filling a farm keeper slot with a goaltender given their obscene average wait times and grim odds of success. However, with the news that incumbent Carey Price will likely miss the entire 2022-23 campaign, Primeau stocks just went up.
Primeau currently sits third on the Canadiens depth chart behind Jake Allen and Sam Montembeault, neither of whom has ever been a reliable NHL option. After two sparkling years at Northeastern in the NCAA, Primeau then turned in three solid AHL campaigns, including brief looks at the NHL level.
Although he got absolutely lit up in his 12 games of NHL action last year, it is important to remember that he was backstopping one of the worst teams in the league. Take those numbers with a grain of salt.
In fact, don't read into them at all. Just watch him make this sweet, sweet glove save on Kevin Fiala instead.
Montreal should take a step forward in 2022-23, and Primeau is fresh off a dominant playoff run to the conference finals with Laval where he posted 14 wins, 2.17 GAA, and 0.936 SV%.
He likely will only hurt fantasy squads this year, especially given how thin Montreal's defence corps looks on paper, but he makes an excellent speculative keep moving forward if you can fit him given the uncertainty in Montreal's net with Price possibly out of the picture for good.
Thanks for reading! Follow me on Twitter @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.
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