In this week's Eastern Edge, we'll discuss a couple of players to avoid in this year's fantasy drafts.

Chris Kreider

The 31-year-old forward is coming off a career-best season that saw him finish third in league goal-scoring, lighting the lamp 52 times. I don't think anyone predicted the offensive explosion from Kreider. Prior to scoring at nearly a point-per-game pace last year, he was pacing for 50 to 60 points throughout most of his career. When a player produces at a certain level for eight years and then sees their production increase astronomically in year nine, it's tempting to think of them as a one-hit wonder and expect regression in year 10. While I do think Kreider takes a step back this year, I don't think it'll be a massive step.

When comparing last season to the rest of Kreider's career, there are a few important numbers that stand out. Firstly, he saw nearly 19 minutes of action per game last year – a significant increase from the 17 and a half minutes he averaged in recent campaigns. Last year was Gerard Gallant's first year as the Rangers head coach and it seems he trusted Kreider with more ice time than former coach David Quinn would have. With Gallant behind the bench again this year, Kreider should continue seeing a high volume of action.

Another important stat to consider is shot rate. After averaging 2 to 2.5 shots per game in recent seasons, Kreider posted 3.2 shots per game last year. Intuitively, the more you shoot, the more you score. That's especially true for a player like Kreider who spends a lot of time in front of the net – where shots tend to be more dangerous.

A final number worth mentioning is power-play production. Last year, Kreider racked up 35 points with the man advantage (0.42PPP/game). That represents a sizeable increase from his previous career-high of 14, which he managed over 50 appearances in 2020-2021 (0.28PPP/game). It's not like he saw significantly more time on the power-play, or that the Rangers' power-play clicked at a way better rate than years past. Rather, it seems Kreider was a more important piece of New York's power play last year than he had been before. He registered a point on 67% of power-play goals scored while he was on the ice. In contrast, recent years saw that number range from 40-45%.

I get the sense that opposing teams will make more of an effort to neutralize Kreider on the power play after taking note of his impressive showing last year. Opponents may place more of an emphasis on defending the front of the net and preventing Kreider from cashing in on net-front deflections as he did so often last season. The Rangers have enough star power to try different looks on the power-play, so don't be surprised if Kreider becomes a less prominent piece of the top unit at some points. While I don't expect it to have a huge effect, keep in mind that Ryan Strome is no longer with the team, so New York's top unit will look a little different this year than it did last year.

Now, I've spent much of this article explaining why Kreider's production shouldn't fall off a cliff this year, so you're probably wondering why I've listed him as a player to avoid in fantasy leagues. Well, simply put, I think he's being overrated based on one strong season. I've seen Kreider ranked and drafted as a top-30 player – ahead of proven stars like Patrick Kane, Johnny Gaudreau and Jake Guentzel. I'm not willing to pay a premium for a player who has had one great season and is more likely to regress than take another step forward. I'd be much more comfortable spending a high pick on a player with a track record of excellence, even if their situations currently seem less favourable than last year – as would be the case for Kane and Gaudreau.  

Sergei Bobrovsky

A goalie's numbers are heavily influenced by the team in front of them. As a result, in fantasy formats, we tend to value goaltenders that play for good teams. Florida was the best team in the league during the regular season last year, so it makes sense that Sergei Bobrovsky would be highly regarded in fantasy leagues this year.

Bobrovsky's stock is not solely based on the team in front of him. His performance last year represented a significant improvement from his first two years in Florida. Year one saw him post a 3.23 GAA and .900 save percentage through 50 outings. In year two, he took a step forward but still finished with a lacklustre 2.91 GAA and .906 save percentage over 31 appearances. Last season was his best as a Panther as he registered a 2.67 GAA and .913 save percentage over 54 games. Although last year's numbers look decent, it's worth noting that Bobrovksy wasn't all that great for most of the year. His numbers are inflated by a strong start that saw him post a .942 save percentage and 1.78 GAA in his first 10 games. After that impressive first month of action, he posted below-average numbers, holding a .906 save percentage and 2.87 GAA over his next 44 games.

In all fairness, there's one important statistic which Bob excels in that I've ignored thus far –

wins. As the starting goalie on a good team, Bobrovsky has had no trouble racking up wins in recent years. He'll still be the starting goalie on a good team this year and should post a lot of wins again. With that being said, the Panthers got worse during the offseason, having lost elite defenseman Mackenzie Weegar. Without Weegar, Bobrovsky's job becomes a bit more difficult, so his numbers may take a hit this year. To make things worse, the Atlantic Division is now more competitive as Ottawa, Buffalo and Detroit are all projected to be better than they were last year. Although the Panthers are still a really good team, I wouldn't be surprised to see them win fewer games this season.

I've seen Bobrovsky drafted as a top-10 goalie and ranked in the top-75 overall. At that price, I think there's way too much room for disappointment. I'd prefer using a later pick on a more underrated option like Elvis Merzlikins.