We have been busy here at Dobber Hockey over the last month. First, we are coming off what we fondly called Bubble Keeper Week, where we discuss players and answer questions about those guys at the bottom of everyone's potential keeper list. To get started, be sure to check out all our Ramblings from the last eight days or so. Dobber, Ian, Alex, and I replied to a lot of questions sent in via social media or found on our Forums. There were also a lot of articles from our writers covering this as well so be sure to check out what was written about some bubble keepers from across the league.

We also released our 2022 Dobber Hockey Fantasy Guide. This will be updated all through the offseason and training camp so that our readers get constant access to up-to-date information. It is a great way to support what we do all year long so go grab your copy!

Finally, we have been doing our team-by-team review of each franchise's offseason. Which guys left the organization, which were brought in, and what the fantasy impact of all that is. We're all the way up to the M-teams, so there is a lot to catch up on if you haven't been reading already.

Despite it still being August, we are gearing up fast for the 2022-23 NHL season. Be sure to go through everything we have already because there's a lot more to come. Thanks for following along, everyone.

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With Nazem Kadri signing in Calgary last week, the major free agents have all been snapped up. That doesn't mean there still isn't some value left on the free agent board, though, and now would be the time to talk about some of these players. We will be taking contract information from Cap Friendly and data from our Frozen Tools or Natural Stat Trick.

Two guys we won't be discussing are Evan Rodrigues and Sonny Milano. I have talked at length about both of those players already this offseason and don't want to keep repeating myself. For more on Rodrigues, check out this deep dive that I did on him back in May. Now that Kadri is officially gone from the Avalanche organization, I think it makes a lot of sense for them to sign him. He may be able to hold down a second-line centre role and even if he can't, he'll bring some scoring to the third line, which they may need.

As for Milano, I wrote about his scoring chance generation back in June. For more on him and what he can bring to a team, check out that link. He would make a lot of sense for a playoff team that might want to add some middle-6 scoring like Minnesota or the Islanders.

With all that out of the way, let's talk about four forwards that are still available for any team to sign them and what they could bring in the fantasy game.

Phil Kessel

Sometimes I wonder if someone like Kessel hasn't signed because he's asking too much, teams don't want him or, as is often the case, some combination of effects like this. It is worth noting he had 52 points last year despite shooting a career-worst 4.6% and just does not miss games, having played over 900 consecutive games without being absent.

Of course, one problem that has persisted Kessel throughout his career, fairly or not, is his defence. Going into his age-35 season, there is legitimate concern he just can't contribute enough offensively to make up for defensive issues. This isn't conjecture, as most players allowed roughly the same-or-more expected goals against with Kessel on the ice than without him (via HockeyViz):

It is worth mentioning that playing for an awful Arizona team for years now has done him no favours. He's infrequently skated with Clayton Keller and the Coyotes just haven't had the depth to give Kessel talented line mates. If he were to sign with Minnesota, Ottawa, or even Buffalo, this wouldn't be as big of a problem. He is still a very good playmaker and that's worth something, defensive issues aside. Stick him with talented line mates in a sheltered role and see what he can bring. If that shooting percentage can rebound (and it will), we could be looking at a 20-goal, 60-point middle-6 winger who can help a power play.

At this point of the offseason, every player has concerns about their game. No player will be perfect and it's about looking for the right fit. He can still be a useful fantasy asset, he just can't re-sign with Arizona or all this goes out the window.

P.K. Subban

It has been quite the fall for the former Norris Trophy winner who also possesses two other top-3 Norris Trophy finishes. He has seen his 5-on-5 ice time be cut by 2 ½ minutes since his highs in Montreal and was largely kept off the power play last year in New Jersey. He had just 59 points in 189 games with the Devils, a precipitous fall considering his 2014-15 season saw 60 points alone. His per-game shot rate fell off a cliff in 2021-22 as he lost four minutes of ice time per game, and even his shots per 60 minutes were a seven-year low.

His team didn't do him many favours, either. Over his first two seasons in New Jersey, as the team was rebuilding, they finished 25^th in scoring per minute. That was behind teams like the Islanders and Coyotes, to give reference to just how poor they were at scoring. That greatly affected Subban's assist rates early in his Devils tenure, as his 0.44 assists per 60 minutes in 2019-20 was nearly a quarter of what he posted in his Norris-winning season (1.66), and about one-third of his rate in his heyday with the Habs (and even in Nashville).

It is important to note that it can't all be blamed on his team. From CJ Turtoro's tableau, in Nashville from 2016-18, Subban was inside the 80^th percentile in shot assists (passes leading to shots), 75^th percentile in controlled entries, 82^nd percentile in controlled exits, and the 97^th percentile in denying controlled entries against:

That was four years ago, which doesn't feel like a long time, but a lot can change in four years. As recently as 2021-22, from Corey Sznajder's Patreon, Subban's zone entry defence wasn't elite, but rather well below average. He was still strong with shot assists and zone entries, but his controlled zone exits fell off a cliff:

While some of the ratios change, it was the same story in COVID 2021; well below average in zone entry defence but strong shot assist and zone entry numbers. Subban was long maligned for being poor in his own end but that's been a more recent development. He can likely no longer be a big contributor in a team's top-4, playing 21 minutes a night. That doesn't mean he's useless, though. Evolving Hockey has him as a similar expected goals-for impact as Quinn Hughes over the last three years, for example. As mentioned, it's just the defence that has fallen off the table. As long as he's not tasked with shutting down top players and skating a lot of minutes, he can help teams offensively.

There are teams that could use his help on the third pair like the Rangers and Jets. Because of his peripheral prowess, he doesn't need 22 minutes a night to have some value in multi-cat formats. I would pay attention to where he signs because the right spot could see 30 points with strong shot, hit, and block rates, despite 18 minutes a night in TOI.

Paul Stastny

He turns 37 years old in December but it isn't as if Stastny's game has fallen completely off the map. In his two-season return to Winnipeg, he averaged 48 points every 82 games and won 55.5% of his faceoffs. That he's still a free agent feels a little curious to me.

Going back to Evolving Hockey, over the last three seasons, Stastny is top-25 in the league (!!!) in expected goals for/against impact. He is tied with Blake Coleman and just ahead of Johnny Gaudreau. He was still good at both ends for Winnipeg last year by these impacts, too:

He might not be the top-line centre he was 5-6 years ago, but he's still a very capable middle-6 centre who can also play the wing if it's necessary. A versatile player like this that can contribute at both ends is still a free agent as we approach the end of August. The NHL is wild.

The strength of Stastny game is turning defence into offence, something every team can use. Even as some of his underlying metrics (shot assists, for example) have declined over the last few seasons, he's still very strong by controlled zone exits. Being able to get the team going in the other direction is more valuable now than it has ever been and even if he's not the playmaker he used to be, this is still important. It's a reason why his expected goals impacts are still strong and speak to how there's more to the offensive game than playing in the offensive zone.

Stastny isn't a player that provides across-the-board stats so he may only have relevance in deeper points-only formats. With that said, he could boost the profile of whatever third line he ends on and that could help others around him and their fantasy value. Pay attention to where he lands.

Rocco Grimaldi

The last guy we're going to discuss is likely the least fantasy-relevant of the players we've reviewed today but is still an interesting case. From 2018-2021 in Nashville, a span of 159 games, Grimaldi scored 25 goals playing fourth-line minutes. That is roughly a 13-goal pace every 82 games, not a bad pace, really. It worked out to 0.8 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, tied with David Perron and Mike Hoffman. In other words, good goal scoring from a depth role.

He fell out of favour with Nashville and spent most of 2021-22 in the AHL, where he had 26 goals and 52 points in 44 games. He's clearly too talented for the minor leagues and my hope is that he gets a PTO somewhere, makes good on his scoring, and finds his way to an NHL roster for opening night.

His problem is he's kind of one dimensional. Think of someone like Brett Connolly: he can score goals at a good rate and that's something that should be valued. But that's about all he brings to the table and NHL coaches just won't accept that. It is worth noting that despite his goal scoring and playing a depth role against weaker competition, Nashville was out-scored with him on the ice in two of his three full-ish seasons.

The lack of wide-ranging skills to offer is why he's remained an NHL tweener for much of his adult life and I'm not sure it gets better. With that said, he can still score goals, and that matters for deeper fantasy leagues. Maybe he lands on a good third line somewhere off a tryout offer. It's a longshot but in leagues with several hundreds players drafted, longshots are what we're looking for.

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The New York Islanders finally decided to do something this offseason and re-signed Noah Dobson, Kieffer Bellows, and Alexander Romanov, their three remaining RFAs. Bellows got a one-year deal ($1.2M) while the other two got three-year deals. Romanov's number came in at $2.5M a season, which is important for cap leaguers to note. His peripherals can be monstrous and that number makes him very worth it. Dobson's cap hit works out to $4M a season, a very good bargain for salary league players.  

Bellows finished the 2021-22 season leading Islanders forwards in shot rate at 5-on-5, which is a good start. The problem is he finished fourth in expected goal rate, slightly exceeding Mathew Barzal, so there were a lot of wasted shots. That is something I discussed back in March, so go read more on Bellows there. He is going into his age-24 season, having played parts of three seasons in the NHL now. Time is running for him to prove himself and on a team that spreads out ice time and could have at least five wingers ahead of him on the depth chart, he needs to impress quickly.

Romanov is a defence-first defenceman, which isn't a bad thing. What could be bad is a decline in ice time. He was over 20 minutes a game for Montreal last year, getting up to 22+ minutes a night over the final third of the season. The best he'll do with the Islanders is playing on the second pair behind Adam Pelech, which might keep him around the 20- or 21-minute mark. Should he be moved down to the third pair at any time, we're looking at a big decline. I think he starts on the second pair but where he ends is up in the air. His massive peripherals will keep him in play in multi-cat leagues regardless.

I am going to take some time to write more extensively about Dobson in my next Ramblings. For now, it's worth remembering he had just seven points in 20 games to start the season as the Islanders struggled mightily to score goals early in the season. As the team improved offensively, so did Dobson's production, finishing the year with 44 points in his next 60 games.