Ramblings – PGR, Replacement Level, Recency Bias and the PTO

Grant Campbell

2022-08-29

Once again I got the call from the ECHL as an EBUG and am filling in for Dobber today. I'm going to focus on a few issues that have either been on my mind for a while or things I'm curious about going forward.

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First, a big announcement. It's finally launched – the all-new Goalie Post! Be sure to take a look, and you'll have re-sign up for email notifications of any goalie/team you're following for starting goaltending changes. You'll also find the latest Top 100 rankings there.

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Second, the obligatory Fantasy Guide plug. It's out, for the 17th year, and it's updated. Some of your opponents may have another Guide in hand. You'll have this one. You'll win. It's that simple. Pick it up here.

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I last did the Ramblings in July of 2021 and talked about my website www.playergameratings.com and my wish to provide game ratings for players and teams. I made the decision at the start of the 2021-22 season to not incorporate an eye-test component so that I could include all 32 teams and the 1,000 players that played last season. I believe at the end of the day, the comparative nature outweighs the increased accuracy of an eye test, which was subjective, to begin with.

My newest pet project within the site is that I've created a google sheet of each team with the player game rating of each player to give an idea of how each team measures up using a projected lineup. I'm hoping to integrate the sheet in the future outside of google sheets or Excel and hyperlink players to the Dobber Frozen Tools. Baby steps. Team PGR Linked 3 Year.xlsx

Important context for the ratings is that 6.41 is the average skater rating and 6.51 for goalies whereas 6.2 to 6.3 is the replacement level. I've also taken game ratings over the past three seasons rather than just last year as I think this gives a more level representation.

Highlighted players in blue are impending UFA.

Here is an example of Toronto: