Eastern Edge: Wide Range of Outcomes for DeBrusk, Dvorak, and Holtz

Brennan Des

2022-08-30

In this week's Eastern Edge, we'll discuss a few players with a wide range of plausible fantasy outlooks this year. In other words, there's some uncertainty surrounding their situations, which makes their fantasy outlook tough to predict.

Jake DeBrusk

Now 25 years old, and with 321 games under his belt, DeBrusk's status as a 45-50-point player is becoming more concrete. This season brings one last opportunity for him to change our perceptions before they're set in stone. Although it's a tall task, conditions will be favourable as he'll no longer be playing for a coach that he clashed with (Bruce Cassidy) but will instead enjoy a clean slate under new coach Jim Montgomery. DeBrusk showed signs of life late last season, tallying 27 points in his final 34 appearances. He benefitted from playing on a line with superstars Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron. That isn't a luxury DeBrusk experienced often in previous years, as coach Cassidy usually loaded up the top line with the team's best players, deploying David Pastrnak with Marchand and Bergeron. During the second half of last season, we saw Cassidy share the wealth more frequently, playing Pastrnak on the second line with Taylor Hall, while DeBrusk rode shotgun on the top line.

With Brad Marchand expected to miss the first month or two of this season, there will be an opening on Boston's top power-play unit early on and DeBrusk sits atop the list of candidates to fill such a role. A sustained stretch on the top unit could help DeBrusk produce more with the man advantage, leading him to loftier overall point totals. Over the past two seasons, he's been stuck in a secondary power-play role, seeing less than 30% of the team's total time with the man advantage, resulting in just seven power-play points through 118 games. Although he may lose his spot on the top unit once Marchand returns, spending those first 15-20 games on the top unit could go a long way.

Although Marchand's eventual return might hurt DeBrusk on the power play, it would likely help him at even strength, as the two players would probably skate together on the top line. While Marchand is out, that spot on the top line will probably be filled by Pavel Zacha – who obviously isn't as talented as Marchand. Now there is a world in which Zacha outperforms DeBrusk early in the season, so that once Marchand returns to the lineup, it's Zacha who stays on the top line with Marchand while DeBrusk falls to the third line. I'd personally bet on DeBrusk maintaining a top-six role all year, but competition from Zacha makes the situation more complicated.

All thing considered, I think there are more reasons to be optimistic than pessimistic, so I'll go out on a limb and say that DeBrusk will flirt with the 60-point mark for the first time in his career.  

Christian Dvorak

When discussing the impact of last year's coaching change, improved production for youngsters Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki is top of mind. However, there were also plenty of low-profile players who saw their fortunes improve under coach Martin St. Louis. One such player is Christian Dvorak, who quietly posted 17 points in 22 games under MSL (0.77 points per game), after tallying 16 in 34 under Dominique Ducharme (0.47 points per game). If you asked me a couple months ago, I would have told you Dvorak was a good sleeper pick this year because of his strong, under-the-radar performance to close out last season. However, following Montreal's acquisition of Kirby Dach at this year's draft, Dvorak's fantasy outlook becomes harder to project as his spot in the lineup is harder to pinpoint.

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On one hand, I expect the Habs to prioritize the development of their two young centers this season, so Dach and Suzuki will probably see more favourable deployment than Dvorak. However, relegating Dvorak to a purely defensive depth role would be poor asset management. He's on contract for three more years with an AAV of $4.45 million. Montreal would be wise to showcase Dvorak in a prominent role this year, giving him a chance to increase his stock so that he can be traded for picks to further accelerate the team's rebuild. In most fantasy leagues, Dvorak will probably be sitting on the waiver wire to start the year. The cost to get him on your roster will be low, but I think he could provide some sneaky value – especially in deeper leagues.

Alexander Holtz

Holtz is an offensively gifted young player, who possesses the talent to enjoy a productive rookie season, but may not get the deployment necessary to reach his ceiling right away. If you're a winger in New Jersey, you want a spot on one of the top two lines to guarantee exposure to star talent (Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier). Now, there's certainly a path to the top-six for Holtz, but he'll have some competition.  

As it stands, wingers Ondrej Palat and Jesper Bratt are locked into top-six roles, presumably flanking Nico Hischier on one line. I'd say the wing slots beside Jack Hughes are less concrete, but there are many candidates for the role. Holtz is a strong contender, but he'll have to compete with more established entities like Yegor Sharangovich – who has shown good chemistry with Hughes, Dawson Mercer – who had a great rookie campaign last year, and Tomas Tatar – who has shown strong two-way ability with great offensive upside in the past. I personally think Holtz has the talent to crack the top-six and make some magic with Hughes at even strength. However, with so much uncertainty surrounding Holtz's place in the lineup, his fantasy outlook is incredibly difficult to predict. That uncertainty prevents me from spending a top pick on him in one-year leagues, but if he's still available in the late rounds of your draft, I'd definitely take a chance on him.

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