We are making our way through the last unofficial week of summer, with Labour Day just around the bend. That means training camps are on the way soon, with rookie camps first, so draft season is nearly upon us. Some may have happened already, but September is when things really start to get rolling.

Unfortunately for us, fantasy hockey data lags far behind other major sports. It is just the nature of having a much smaller fan base. For that reason, I wanted to look at some data that we do have at this early portion of draft season.

Underdog Fantasy is a website I've mentioned before in these Ramblings. They have Best Ball formats for NHL, which is a variation of a season-long league. There are no trades, waivers, or free agency – the team you draft is the team you're stuck with. Only a certain percentage of the roster counts towards final standings and that gives some flexibility to the lineup. What they do have is ADP data for over 1000 entries, which can give us a guide as to where fantasy players stand on certain players at this point in time in a multi-cat format. Let's go through some of these ADPs, what the reasoning would be, and where we might find some value.

The scoring in these leagues is a points format that has the following parameters for skaters:

• Goals – 6 points
• Assists – 4 points
• Power play points – 0.5 points
• Shot on goal – 1 point
• Hit – 0.5 points
• Blocked Shot – 1 point

And for goalies:

• Wins – 6
• Goal Against – (-3)
• Save – 0.6

When it comes to raw points, elite goalies tend to have a lower ceiling than elite skaters. Roman Josi out-pointed Igor Shesterkin using this scoring last year by 90 points, and Connor McDavid out-pointed Igor by around 180 points. Value is relative to position, but raw points do matter to an extent. In that sense, prioritizing goalies isn't really necessary for a top finish.

To that end, let's look at some ADP data for multi-cat points leagues where plus/minus isn't a factor. One final note: there is a Best Ball league they're offering where there is a playoff at the end of the regular season (like regular H2H leagues do). Scores are reset and the best scores each week advance in a tournament-style format. To that end, guys that may miss significant time this year (like Brad Marchand or Max Pacioretty) can still be league-winners if they come back in full flight, which is why they may have higher ADPs here than on other sites.  

The Big Four, Plus Two

It probably doesn't need to be said but the top four players by ADP are Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, Auston Matthews, and Leon Draisaitl. If they all play 80 games, it's easy to see these four as the four most productive skaters and regardless of format, you may see all four go at the top of every draft this fall.

The 'Plus Two' here are Kirill Kaprizov and Cale Makar. They are usually going after those four centres and they are at the top of the winger and defencemen ADPs. Kaprizov had a monster season in 2021-22 and it's a question if he can repeat his near-50-goal performance with triple-digit points. There isn't much concern about Cale Makar being the top defenceman, provided he can stay healthy. Those top-6 players are guys we'll often see be the first six off the board unless the league in question favours goaltenders heavily. Alex Ovechkin and Nikita Kucherov also have high ADPs and will likely be inside the top-10 off the board.

David Pastrnak and Mikko Rantanen

This is where things get interesting as these wingers round out the top-10 by ADP. David Krejci is back for Boston and could be Pastrnak's centre to start the year. They will also be without Brad Marchand and Charlie McAvoy for a good chunk to start the season. Can Pastrnak out-perform guys like Matthew Tkachuk and Jonathan Huberdeau with a power play that has McAvoy and Marchand missing for at least a month? It's a gamble.

As for Rantanen, I'm on the record multiple times saying I think he ends up the 2C behind MacKinnon at some point. This team still has Cup aspirations, Alex Newhook hasn't shown he's ready to handle that role (yet), and J.T. Compher just doesn't provide a lot of hope as the 2C on the reigning Cup champions. If Rantanen slides down to the 2C role, he'll naturally be playing away from MacKinnon for most of the game. Per Natural Stat Trick, the team scores about a half-goal less per 60 minutes when he's not with MacKinnon or Kadri, which is something I do believe happens this year. Just something to think about if you're picking at the end of the first round and you have the Tkachuk brothers, Roman Josi, Aleksander Barkov, and the elite goalies left on the board.

Evander Kane

In just 43 games last year, in this format, Kane put up 432.5 points. Had he played 75 games at that pace, we're looking at over 750 points, roughly equating Patrick Kane's output. A reminder that of his 39 points, Edmonton's Kane had just four of them come with the man advantage. If he can somehow become a staple of that lethal power play the Oilers have, it's not far-fetched to think he comes in as a top-10 winger in this scoring system and certainly has top-5 winger upside if all goes right. He's often going outside the top-15 wingers and that seems like good value.

Jack Eichel

The Vegas forward (perhaps winger?) is going just inside the top-12 centres in this format. To be a top-12 centre in this scoring, it's likely to need roughly point-per-game status – or better – in a full season with three shots per game. That is certainly in Eichel's range, but it also seems like he's being drafted at his upside rather than his expectation. To really bring draft value here, he'd likely need a 100-point season. I do think Eichel is going to rebound from his less-than-stellar performance in his abbreviated 2021-22 season but it seems like the value is being sucked out of his ADP, at least on Underdog. At that point, I'd probably just look at other positions and wait for guys like Roope Hintz or Elias Pettersson a few rounds later.

Valeri Nichushkin

Speaking of having value sucked out of his ADP, Nichushkin was one guy I was worried would fit that bill coming off his breakout season. His 82-game paces in 2021-22 were for 33 goals, 36 assists, 238 shots, 118 hits, and 12 PPPs. The concern, obviously, is that he is stuck on the second line without MacKinnon but again, I think Rantanen might end up the 2C. Also, with Kadri gone, Nichushkin looks to be in line for top PP status (as long as Artturi Lehkonen doesn't steal away that spot). He is going around the 125^th player off the board and could skate most of the season alongside MacKinnon both at 5-on-5 and on the power play. As long as he can stay healthy, I would rather have him than guys going ahead of him like Zach Hyman, Mats Zuccarello, Lucas Raymond, Tim Stützle, and others. This could be a tremendous value if he’s consistently going in the 9- to -12-round range.

Mason Marchment

It seems there isn't a lot of belief in Marchment's breakout as he's sometimes going undrafted on Underdog. There could be good reason, as he's likely to be skating on the second line with aging veterans like Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin and may not earn a top PP role. With that said, he did not need a top PP role for success last year and was good at creating chances for both himself and his teammates. His 82-game pace in this scoring system had him as, roughly, a top-25 winger; hits and shots help here. With more ice time, those peripherals should only grow. If he can somehow earn a top PP role as the season wears on, he could be big in the second half. This is a winger to target late in drafts.  

Aaron Ekblad

The top of the defenceman board often sees the same four blue liners get drafted in this order: Makar, Josi, Victor Hedman, and Adam Fox. (The order may vary among drafts or between sites, but these are usually the first four off the board.) At the top of the next group is Ekblad. Had it not been for his broken leg that caused him to miss the final quarter of the season, he may have been a Norris Trophy contender. There are issues here, of course. First is that Jonathan Huberdeau – possibly the top playmaking winger in the league – is in Calgary. Matthew Tkachuk is his replacement but it remains to be seen if the power play can be as effective without Huberdeau. Second is that Ekblad doesn't bring much for peripherals, averaging fewer than two hits-plus-blocks per game over the last three years. If he can't replicate his point production, can he really be a top-5 defenceman? This seems like a gamble not worth taking with a fourth- or fifth-round pick.

Dougie Hamilton

We don't have to go back very far to a time when Hamilton was an elite fantasy defenceman: in the COVID 2021 campaign, over on Yahoo! (which, admittedly, is a bit different in format), he was the top blue liner on the season. At his best, in an 82-game season, Hamilton could bring 250 shots and 200 hits+blocks, setting aside his point production. Injuries caught up with him last year and he was infrequently on the top PP unit. Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier, and Jesper Bratt are all a year older, Hamilton is presumably 100% healthy, and all that could see him return back to the fantasy Promised Land. He has 60-point upside with great peripheral production, which means he absolutely has top-5 defenceman fantasy upside. He is frequently going outside the top-10 defencemen (later on other sites) and that seems like a good risk to take for anyone that doesn't get Josi, Makar, Fox, or Hedman.

Jared Spurgeon

While I am muted on Minnesota's upside this year, they should still have two good scoring lines, a great checking line, and Spurgeon should be running the top PP unit. It is worth pointing out that a guy that averaged four PP goals/82 games from 2018-2021 scored exactly zero in 65 games last year. He had four straight seasons of double-digit shooting percentage at 5-on-4 heading into 2021-22 but failed to score even once. His peripherals don't stand out, but we could have a 50-point, 20-PPP defenceman going well outside the top-30 blue liners. That is another risk that seems worth taking.

Mike Matheson

Without a season that comes out of nowhere, even I have to admit that top-12 defenceman upside for Matheson is a stretch. With that said, it's worth noting that he'll likely play in Montreal's top-4 defencemen this year, which means a TOI increase from the 18:48 he played per night last year in Pittsburgh. That means he could threaten triple digits in both hits and blocks with over two shots per game. Beyond that, there really isn't much that he needs to overcome to be the team's top PP defenceman. My assumption is that Chris Wideman gets the first crack, but Matheson is right behind him, and he could even start with the role from the first game of the season (you know what they say about assumptions). I wrote recently about 40 points not being worth as much from a defenceman anymore, but a guy who can put up 40 points with good peripherals going virtually undrafted? Time to swing for the fences.

Ilya Sorokin

Here is where there is divergence from some other sites. Depending on where you play – Yahoo, ESPN, Fantrax – Sorokin could easily be one of the top-5 goalies off the board. Over here on Underdog, he's the 10^th goalie off the board by ADP, behind goalies like Marc-André Fleury and Thatcher Demko. In a sense, it's understandable: the Islanders did not greatly improve the roster in the offseason and were a non-playoff team last year. With that said, the team was 17^th in the league by points percentage once their extended road trip and COVID postponements finished in the middle of January. With a healthy roster, a normal schedule, and adding Alexander Romanov to the blue line, it's not hard to envision them being a playoff team in 2022-23. As long as they don't split starts with Semyon Varlamov, Sorokin absolutely has top-5 goaltender upside. If you're in a league where he slides outside the top-5 goalies, I would have no problem rostering him as my first goalie. For posterity: Evolving Hockey has him second among all regular goalies over the last two years in goals saved above expected per game. With a (hopefully) better defensive squad in front of him this season, Sorokin could soar.

Philipp Grubauer

Oh, it was a bad year for Grubauer in Seattle's inaugural season. Among 39 goalies with at least 30 starts, he was *squints* 39^th in save percentage. As veteran fantasy hockey owners know, however, one season doesn't make or break a goalie's career. Which is why we should note that from 2018-2021, a span of 108 starts, he was (.918 SV%) a shade behind Juuse Saros (.919) in overall save percentage. By goals saved above expected, he was average, and even average would be a big boost this year. Seattle added some good scoring in the offseason and were a good defensive team last year. He will likely be drafted well outside the top-20 goalies off the board and is one of the netminders worth taking a risk on. At that point, we're talking about the Carter Hart/Jonathan Quick tier and it wouldn't take much to convince me that Grubauer will outperform those guys.

Cal Petersen

Speaking of Quick, let's talk the Kings goaltending situation. Again, from Evolving Hockey, from 2018-21, Petersen was third in the league in goals saved above expected per game. Of course, that was a span of just 50 starts, but we have seen him play well before. The Kings are a team that wants to get back to the playoffs, and this is Quick's last season on his contract. If Petersen plays better of the two early in the season, he could really grip the starter's job for a roster with postseason potential. Quick will likely be drafted first in most leagues and despite a decent 2021-22 season, he's turns 37 in January and hasn't been elite for years now. Once we're getting to third-goalie-on-the-fantasy-roster status, Petersen is the type of goalie to swing for. Maybe Quick keeps the 1A goalie job, but that's a risk worth taking at this point of any fantasy draft.

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A little note on Mark Stone buried in a story from NHL.com on Jack Eichel: Mark Stone will miss training camp. His health might make or break Vegas's entire season and this isn't a great start. Just put a start beside his name in fantasy drafts, especially as there seems to be a bit of confusion here:

Lots of chatter about Mark Stone's avail for training camp and some of it may have gotten twisted.
While VGK has said Stone would be ready for the regular season, that does not mean that he's expected to miss training camp. Simple miscommunication there.

— gary lawless (@garylawless) August 29, 2022