Ramblings: Thompson’s Extension; Wild Forwards; Hill in Vegas; A Three-Way Deal & More (Aug 31)

Alexander MacLean

2022-08-31

After covering for Ian this weekend this is going to be the fourth time in eight days that I'm rambling. Not sure how Ian and Cliffy do multiple days every week. It's especially tough in the middle of August. Luckily though we have had a bit of news the last couple days though, most recent of which is the Tage Thompson extension.

Thompson is currently under contract for one more year at a $1.4 million cap hit, and after last year's breakout he's a huge bargain on that deal. However, he has been signed to a lucrative extension, and will be making $50 million from 2023 to 2030. That's a seven-year deal with a cap hit of $7.1 million and change.

The six-foot-seven centre will likely be lining up as the first-line pivot for the Sabres, and will be trying to prove that his 68 points in 2021-22 was no fluke. He hit his breakout threshold early, passing 200 games in the middle of last season, but as a larger player we would have anticipated his big jump to come later. This isn't me trying to say that he should have another big jump in two seasons, and moreso would be the opposite, that a big jump at this point might actually signal that there was some unsustainability to his production.

Thompson jumped from a 30-point-pace in 2020-21 to a 70-point-pace in 2021-22. He did so by adding four minutes of ice time per game (one and a half of which was on the power play), by upping his shot rate to over three per game, and by doubling his shooting percentage from a career around 7% to 15% last year. His seconard assist rate was a little high at 50%, and his on-ice shooting percentage was a slightly inflated 11.3%. Thompson's best quarter came when he put up 23 points in 20 games to finish off the season though, right after passing the 200-game threshold.

Overall, there may be a little regression from the percentages leveling out, though it could be covered or even built upon with a better team around him, and the possibility to continue to add more ice time. He only saw 57% of the team's available time on the power play last year, so that could certainly be a spot where he gets more opportunity this time around.

The extension may be a bit early, and a bit much, but $7 million is not a terrible bet with the cap due to rise very soon. Buffalo needs to retain their top talent, and Thompson putting up 70 points per season while adding the physical style that his large frame lends itself to, there is a solid floor here that the 24-year-old shouldn't age out of even by the time the deal is in its final season.

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In a completely unsurprising move, Adin Hill was traded to Vegas two days ago in exchange for a fourth-round pick. I have a feeling they would have been willing to give up more than that, but they also knew that San Jose didn't want to carry three goalies into the season, and weren't getting offers elsewhere for him – thus the cheap price tag.

Hill has had an unremarkable career the last few years, but when you're playing 74 career games for Arizona and San Jose, and you're not labelled as a bad goalie, that can quietly be very heavy praise. It reminds me a little of how Darcy Kuemper fared in Los Angeles and Arizona before ultimately ending up in Colorado and suddenly becoming a top-tier goalie. I'm not saying Hill is going to cruise to 40 wins, but the upside is there, the team in front of him should be strong, and goalies are prone to huge fluctuations in value, so you might as well roll the dice somewhere like this.

Fellow Vegas goalies include: Logan Thompson who is waiver exempt, Laurent Brossoit who is not going to be ready for the start of the season due to rehab from offseason surgery, and Robin Lehner who will return for the 2023-24 season at the earliest. If there is a team that (when healthy) can contend with Colorado in the West, it is this Vegas team. Owning a volume goalie on a top-team is gold, and it feels even better when that asset is very cheap to acquire or can be had later in drafts.

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Sam Steel finally signed a contract. There's some ultimate upside for him, but even just in the short term he could be useful for fantasy leagues. He is not far removed from being looked at as a future first-liner, and he's just games away from his breakout threshold at the age of 24. Minnesota does not have their top-nine, or even their top-line set in stone, and Steel plays centre which is where Minnesota has the most uncertainty.

More likely though is that Steel ends up in the bottom-six and sees a small bump to a 35-point pace or so.

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On a related note from the Steel news, there should be even more room in the lineup to start as Jordan Greenway is expected to miss the beginning of the season after he had a second procedure on his AC joint. All that seems to be available at this point is that he will be back "early in the season".

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The Penguins extended coach Mike Sullivan's contract for three years. Sullivan has been the coach of the team since December 2015, winning the cup in his first season with the team. As usual in Pittsburgh, the goaltending should be good, Kris Letang is elite, and the top-six is as good as any other in the league. However, the depth leaves a lot to be desired, making them a risky bet to make the playoffs this year. That being said, Sullivan has produced very positive results, and should be able to keep the bottom from falling out with the aging core. The consistency is good news for the Penguins, and the fantasy managers that own their players. Projectability is something that can be hard to come by, so knowing exactly what we're getting with deployment and style of play can make drafting a player like Jake Guentzel, Bryan Rust, or Kris Letang a lot easier.

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I pulled off a three-team deal in one of my fantasy leagues (24-team, cap dynasty) a few days ago. This isn't the first one I have pulled off, but it is the biggest. The gist of the deal was me sending Patrick Kane and a decent pick to team two for Dougie Hamilton and Martin Necas, then flipping Necas with Mathieu Joseph and some other pieces to team three for Patrice Bergeron, Nino Niederreiter, and parts. There was also a small exchange between teams two and three included, and looked at on the whole it's easy to get lost in all the moving pieces.

Trades like this are difficult to pull off, and only happen to come together when you're dealing with GMs that you have a decent rapport with, and can bounce things off of. Initially, both team two and I were bidding to get Bergeron from team three, and team three made me aware of what the offer was that I had to beat (Necas). Knowing I didn't have the (futures) pieces available to beat that, I pivoted and talked directly to team two, and said that I would add a small asset to his Necas to help him land Bergeron, if I could continue to flip Joseph and a pick for Niederreiter from team three, and receive a pick in return from team two that I knew I could use to fill my centre position elsewhere. Ultimately that fell through, but team-two came back to me the next day, and asked about reviving our Kane for Hamilton+ talks from the month prior, with the asset sent with Hamilton being Necas, who I could then flip for Bergeron. It snowballed from there, and was done in a matter of hours.

I'm curious to hear in the comments, or on Twitter where you can find me @alexdmaclean, what fantasy hockey deals of yours have been your favourite, the biggest, or just the most convoluted. There have to be some other special ones out there.

See you next Wednesday!

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