OUT NOW!

I released the Fantasy Guide on August 4, and the last update is September 4 with the Kulikov trade, Steel signing, plus my projected NHL standings. Pick up the Fantasy Guide here and immediately download both the PDF and the spreadsheet. One more feature article left and you can expect it this week – my top Calder Trophy picks. Otherwise, the Guide will get updates on injuries, signings, camp cuts and more – projections, line combos and notes all get updated throughout.

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Have you checked out the new Goalie Post yet?

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In reviewing the teams again last week in terms of projected standings and projected offense, I got a really good feel for the haves and the have-nots. And the list of teams is, of course, obvious. But let's review the situation and give some odds.

Let's get one thing out of the way right now. I don't have last year's bottom dweller in the mix. Montreal is in the clear. They're not a playoff team. Not even close. But they aren't going to be in the mix. In fact, I have six teams finishing below them in the standings and five of those teams have a real shot.

Some significant oddsmakers offer the following odds as of last week: Arizona and Chicago each at 3-1, Montreal at 5-1 and Buffalo at 10-1. Way off. Buffalo is safely out of the mix and are closer to a playoff spot than they are to finishing last overall. No, they'll still fall about 13 points short of a playoff spot and finish 13^th in the East – but they'll be nowhere near last overall.

Website "Tankathon" has Chicago at 18.5%, Arizona at 13.5%, San Jose at 11.5%, Montreal at 9.5% and Buffalo at 8.5%.

All these people are wrong. I'm the only one who will be right, of course. Let me help you place some fun little wagers on whatever gambling site gives you the nicest odds. My partners, if you want to support me with any clicks (hint hint) are: BetMGM, bet365, Caesars and Unibet.

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Out of the mix:

Buffalo – Come on. This steadily improving team is coming off a 75-point season. A full season of health from Alex Tuch and Casey Mittelstadt, full seasons from Jack Quinn, Owen Power, Peyton Krebs – and to me they upgraded in net with Eric Comrie, who will begin the season as the backup but end it as the starter make no mistake. And oddsmakers think that this team will take a step back? How stupid are these people? To get in the Bedard mix, at least in terms of the best lottery odds, you have to be at 60 points or less. Buffalo just had 75 and they're a better team this season. So stop putting the Sabres into this conversation.

Montreal – The Habs finished the season 14-19-3 under Martin St. Louis. They were 8-30-8 before that. The 'real' Cole Caufield has arrived, Jonathan Drouin is healthy and entering his contract year, plus the team added Kirby Dach. If they trade a forward to clear some room, then Juraj Slafkovsky can also be added to the roster too. Subtract Jeff Petry but add Mike Matheson and Justin Barron. This team won't make the playoffs but they're safely above the 60-point threshold.

NY Islanders – I probably have the Isles ranked lower than most teams. Yes, they have a new coach and they also boast the second-best goalie in the league for my money, so this could go in either direction. But honestly, after Matt Barzal and Noah Dobson, this team has zero star power. And they did nothing this offseason. Literally nothing. By that logic, I could move them all the way to dead last. But this is also the team that made it to the semi-finals a year ago (quite literally the same team – Lou really does change absolutely nothing), so there is no way they get that low. Expect plenty of 2-1 victories – just not enough to get into the playoffs.

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In the mix for Bedard:

Arizona – Nothing much has changed for the Coyotes, who finished with 57 points last season. But I have them improving simply from within their current roster. Not nearly as much as the Sabres, but definitely more than the Islanders. Clayton Keller has really come into his own, starting at about the 20-game mark last season. Ditto for Nick Schmaltz. And Barrett Hayton appears to be ready to take another step. They don't have a Krebs nor a Quinn, but they do have lesser-lights such as Nathan Smith and Jack McBain. They also have addition by subtraction, no longer having to play Phil Kessel or Loui Eriksson. Give them a slight uptick in their final total for 2022-23. Odds: 15-1

Seattle – A full season from Matty Beniers and Jaden Schwartz, plus the additions of Oliver Bjorkstrand, Andre Burakovsky and Shane Wright have made this a better team. But they are in a division against Edmonton, Calgary, Vegas, Los Angeles and Vancouver. To me, those five teams either outright improved on the ice, or they got their act together enough (i.e. Vancouver hiring Bruce Boudreau) to ensure that more wins will be had. I think Seattle has some tougher games this year, albeit with a better roster to face it. Odds: 12-1

San Jose – Somehow, this underwhelming roster cobbled together 77 points last season. They did well in adding Kaapo Kahkonen and I think he'll do a good job. But they traded away Brent Burns and oddly released their top rookie last season in Jonathan Dahlen. Their most promising rookie coming this year (in my books), Sasha Chmelevski, didn't even bother negotiating a contract – he just fled to the KHL. And he was born in California! I don't know how the Sharks got 77 points, but they're getting less this time around. Perhaps as few as 60. Odds: 12-1

Philadelphia – The bottom line is that the Flyers lost Claude Giroux and Oskar Lindblom and added Tony DeAngelo and technically Sean Couturier (who missed much of last season). They have Joel Farabee and Bobby Brink starting the season off sidelined. Carter Hart still hasn't gotten his act together. Philadelphia earned 61 points in 2021-22 and I'm not sure they're going to add anything to that. In fact, look for them to sink a little further. Odds: 8-1

Chicago – Only a lottery win from another contender will take Bedard from this team. The new GM Kyle Davidson is running this team like a fantasy squad. He's made the decision to tank. And while most NHL GMs make this decision and then carefully trade their assets over the course of a full year, fantasy GMs tend to do it all at once in what we call a "fire sale". Kyle Davidson is a fantasy GM. Gone are Dylan Strome, Alex DeBrincat, Kirby Dach and Dominik Kubalik. Inbound are castoffs like Max Domi, Andreas Athanasiou, Jack Johnson and Colin Blackwell. Their goaltending duo will be Petr Mrazek and Alex Stalock. And while I don't mind the skill level of that pair, both of them are quite injury prone and neither can be counted on to start 40 games. Davidson isn't even trying to hide the fact that he's tanking. Odds: 3-1

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Dynasty/Keeper leagues can expect serious tanking this year. My one league already has a GM with it in the bag, with a roster stacked with youth who will get very few points this season. I have no problem with dynasty league tanking. Unlike in real hockey, we don't have fans watching games. If a GM wants to pay his dues and give up a shot at winning or placing for what will amount to several years – go for it. In fact, often that's the best way to turn things around. In a competitive dynasty (keep everyone), recovering from a full tanking could take upwards of seven or eight years.

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See you next Monday.