There are a handful of prominent restricted free agents left to sign with their teams, among them Jason Robertson in Dallas, Rasmus Sandin in Toronto, Barrett Hayton in Arizona, and Kirby Dach in Montreal. One of those guys was locked up for four years on Wednesday morning:

Les Canadiens s'entendent sur les termes d'un contrat de quatre saisons (2022-2023 à 2025-2026) avec l'attaquant Kirby Dach.#GoHabsGo https://t.co/6GwyaMFhgL

— Canadiens Montréal (@CanadiensMTL) September 7, 2022

This doesn't seem like a bad bet from the Habs. If he lives up to his potential, those four years could be a great value for the team. If he doesn't, it's not a huge average annual value that will cripple their cap space beyond the 2022-23 season. It also gives Dach a bit of security and gives him the chance to cash in huge four years hence.

Dach has an important year ahead of him. He basically lost a season to his wrist surgery in COVID 2021, breaking it at the World Juniors and then, it appeared, rushing back to the regular season. He had shoulder problems in 2021-22 and was subsequently traded. He really hasn't been able to show his potential for a couple years now.

As for the offensive upside, there was a good article by former AHL coach Jack Han about Dach's reluctance to use his size to his benefit in the opponent's zone. Standing 6'4" and over 200 lbs (depending on your source), using that size should be a staple for him when dealing with defenders 1-on-1. If he can start to protect that puck and driving the net, good things should come for him.

He basically lost a year of development, was playing for an awful 'Hawks team, doesn't turn 22 years old until January, and has just 152 regular season games to his name. There is more growth to come and if he can tap into that offensive potential, a very good two-way centre is yet to come as well. He has to prove it first, but he'll have lots of opportunities to do just that on a rebuilding Montreal team. Just don't expect much fantasy goodness yet. He hasn't been a big goal scorer/shooter at any level, so he could end up more valuable in the real world than in the fantasy game.

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There was a significant signing made by another Canadian team, as Ottawa locked up one of their core pieces for the better part of a decade:

Deal for Stützle is 8 years, $8.35 M AAV.

— Ian Mendes (@ian_mendes) September 7, 2022

This is part of a trend we've seen emerge from the last few years, which is teams giving huge extensions to non-generational players right out of their entry-level deals. Ottawa did this with Josh Norris and Brady Tkachuk already, while there's Nico Hischier and Jack Hughes in New Jersey, Andrei Svechnikov in Carolina, Clayton Keller in Arizona, plus a few others. None of them are in that Auston Matthews/Connor McDavid tier but also aren't being paid as if they are. At the same time, it's a massive commitment that teams really can't get wrong and that puts a lot of pressure on both sides.

For now, if Stützle continues his upward trajectory, this should be a very good thing for the Senators. They have him, Thomas Chabot, Tkachuk, and Norris all locked up for over a half-decade, and none of them with double-digit AAVs.

I'm going to write more at length about this contract and Stützle's game, with fantasy potential, tomorrow.  

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For more on Dach, Stützle, and every player/team in the league from a fantasy perspective, be sure to grab our 2022 Dobber Hockey Fantasy Guide!

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If there is one thing that I don't really like discussing in fantasy hockey, it's goaltending. The position is fairly random and my personal opinion is that there might be 5-6 great goalies, a couple of them in not-so-great spots, and the next 20 guys are relatively the same, with their respective teams being a big influence. Most of what differentiates them is a hefty dose of luck over a six-month fantasy season.

But it is a very important part of the fantasy game so be sure to read what other writers and editors are saying around here. Alex MacLean took part of his Ramblings yesterday to talk about bargain goalies while Brennan's 'Eastern Edge' column tiered the East's goalies from elite to forgettable.

Let's take a bit of time to look at some potential landmines. For now, we'll keep using ADP data from Underdog Fantasy and focus on top-25 goalies.

Connor Hellebuyck

This has nothing to do with Hellebuyck as a goalie. He's long been a personal favourite of mine to watch and when he's at the top of his game, there might only be a couple goalies in the league I'd rather have on my team. The problem is what surrounds him.

Last year, per Natural Stat Trick, the Jets were 26^th in expected goals against at 5-on-5. What saved them were Hellebuyck and Eric Comrie combining for a .923 save percentage, nestled between Calgary's and Tampa Bay's duos. From Evolving Hockey, over the last three years, Hellebuyck leads all goaltenders in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx, 48.3). That number is more than double Andrei Vasilevskiy's (22.7) in a similar amount of ice time. One reason for that is Winnipeg has been so much worse defensively than Tampa Bay that Hellebuyck has to do a lot of extra work to just keep the Jets afloat. And, despite Helle playing so well individually, the Jets' poor defensive play has led to him having an overall save percentage in those three seasons (.916) worse than Vasy's (.919).

Pierre-Luc Dubois could be traded at anytime during the season. The Jets did almost nothing in the offseason to improve the roster, despite having traded Andrew Copp last year and missing playoffs. If Hellebuyck is anything other than an elite goalie, this team will likely be poor enough defensively to absolutely torpedo his fantasy value. If I don't draft a goalie from the Igor/Vasy/Juuse tier, this isn't where I'm spending my draft capital.

Tristan Jarry

Over his three full-ish seasons, Jarry is tied with Philipp Grubauer and Carter Hart in high-danger save percentage at 5-on-5, one indicator of goalie talent. His overall save percentage has been strong but it's also worth noting his GSAx in those three years slightly edges Jordan Binnington and is lower than Jonathan Quick. I would wager a good chunk of his performance has been from a very good team in front of him.

The big issue is what to make of the Penguins. Jeff Petry turns 35 in December, at which point he, Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang will all be 35+ years old. There is always the question of when the floor falls through, whether injury, under-performance from age-related decline, or both. If the team in front of him isn't high-end defensively like they were last year, can he be great? Anything can happen with goalies, but this is a nervous situation for me. He's going late enough that he's unlikely to be a top-10 netminder off the board, so the draft capital isn't Hellebuyck-esque. With that said, the questions about the age of the core of the Penguins will persist and he'll be someone's number-1 fantasy goalie rostered, just not mine.

Elvis Merzlikins

There is a lot of hubbub about the Blue Jackets heading into the season, largely because of the Johnny Gaudreau signing. We should note that the only team in 2021-22 with a worse goals against and expected goals against rate at 5-on-5 than Columbus was the Arizona Coyotes. To address this problem, they traded Oliver Bjorkstrand and signed Erik Gudbranson. As a couple friends of mine might say, "Ok *thumbs up*".

I get that once we get past the first dozen goalies (I'd argue earlier but generally speaking), we're taking a lot of chances on our goalies anyway. With that in mind, taking Merzlikins after names like Jarry, Bobrovsky, or Binnington doesn't feel like a reach in any sense. I guess my problem is just how good will Columbus be defensively in 2022-23? They'd have to improve over half the league just to be average on the back end and that's a significant one-year jump. It's the Hellebuyck problem magnified.

Merzlikins is the number-1 goalie here and I do think he's good enough that if the Jackets improve in their own zone, he can be a top-20 fantasy goalie. There are also some young, developing players that could help a lot in this regard if they start realizing their potential. But if he's not playing to an elite level, and the team doesn't take a big step forward, this could end up being a mess.

John Gibson

Once upon a time, Gibson was one of the most reliable goalies in the league. In his first five full-ish years, he never posted a save percentage lower than .914, and was .920 or higher in three straight campaigns. It seems some people still think of him as a high-end goalie despite him not posting a single .905-or-better season in three straight years. In that span, his GSAx is much worse than Sergei Bobrovsky's in a similar TOI total. By high danger save percentage, he's in the middle of the league. He hasn't been elite for quite some time now.

We can't blame it all on a bad Ducks team, either: Darcy Kuemper had a .922 save percentage from 2018-2021 in Arizona while Hellebuyck hasn't been below .910 for five straight seasons. I wouldn't have a problem saying, "Gibson didn't have a good season because of the team in front of him." I do have a problem saying, "Gibson hasn't been good since 2018-19 because of the team in front of him."

The question is how much we think they've improved. Jamie Drysdale, Trevor Zegras, and Troy Terry are all a year older, they added Ryan Strome, Frank Vatrano, and John Klingberg in the offseason, and have Mason McTavish on the way. It is obvious they got a lot better offensively but how much better is this bottom-10 team defensively?

I would wager Gibson will be a popular goalie fantasy choice among people that wait to take their goaltending duos/trios. He's the unquestioned number-1 on a team that looks to be improving. But the Kings are also improving (and were much better last year anyway), Calgary and Edmonton are looking to run it back, Seattle did a lot of work in the offseason, Vegas could rebound, and Vancouver was much better under Bruce Boudreau. Anaheim could improve and still not be a top-5 team in their own division. How much belief the individual has in the progress of the Ducks will likely determine whether to draft Gibson, we're just not sure if he's still elite or not.

Matt Murray

First, I will say that the ADP is a lot more palatable than I thought it was going to be. His Underdog ADP is 21^st goalie off the board, in a tier with names like Ville Husso and Pavel Françouz. Considering last year at this time, Jack Campbell – a 30-year-old with 78 career starts – was going as a top-10 or top-12 goalie off the board, being able to take Murray somewhere between the 18^th and 25^th goalies is much more acceptable.

There have been injuries and setbacks that have marred Murray's NHL career. With that said, he's had one really good season and that was 2016-17. That's five years ago. It feels like he's been around forever, but he's still just 28. There isn't reason to write him off, but there is a question of whether he can recapture his old Pittsburgh magic. Playing behind an elite Toronto team will afford him the opportunity to find his game, but that's a double-edged sword. Neither he nor Ilya Samsonov will start 60-plus games, but this is a Cup contender. The majority of starts will go to the goalie that is playing well. Nothing is guaranteed for Murray.

Again, at his ADP, it's hard to really argue with drafting him. Even if he's average, an elite team in front of him will pay off his fantasy value. But he needs to be better than he's been for years now (in aggregate) and Samsonov could greatly cut into his workload. There are concerns here.

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When talking about some of these later goalies, I do think the better idea is to just grab the tandems. Draft both Murray and Samsonov and have them be the aggregate second goalie on your fantasy roster. Ditto with Françouz/Georgiev in Colorado and Swayman/Ullmark in Boston. Though the Boston injuries worry me, it's worth remembering this team started slow in 2021-22, being 16^th in points percentage through Christmas; they were 7^th from Christmas onward. Even if the team has another slow start this year, they could be a completely different team after the first month or so.

This is a unique year, it seems. Colorado, Toronto, and Boston all look to be running some sort of tandem and if Boston can get healthy, they could all be Cup contenders. Being able to lock down one of those duos could be a cheap way to lock up the goaltending situation from an (hopefully) elite team. If injuries or under-performance hit either goalie in the duo, you have the other as a sure-fire starter on a contender. To me, this seems an especially good year to try to go the tandem route with your second goalie slot in the fantasy game.