Ramblings: 5 Projected Players with Big Jumps and 5 with Big Dips… (Sep 12)

Dobber

2022-09-12

OUT NOW!

I released the Fantasy Guide on August 4, and the last update is September 11 with the latest player tryouts as well as my Calder Trophy rankings (expect these up later today, September 12, as I put the finishing touches in). Pick up the Fantasy Guide here and immediately download both the PDF and the spreadsheet. The Guide will continue to get updates on injuries, signings, camp cuts and more – projections, line combos and notes all get updated throughout.

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Have you checked out the new Goalie Post yet? We are still taking suggestions, notes and errors from users as we get the new site ready for the season. Coming up this week (I hope) – DOBBERNOMICS. Yes, another re-launch/upgrade is on the way. Stay tuned to my Twitter account for the announcement on this.

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This week's Keeping Karlsson episode went through my projections and highlighted some of the bolder ones – both on the high side and low side. You can see the YouTube episode below. I thought I would go through and explain a few of the big jumps or dives in the points-per-game projections that I have and provide some insight.

First, I want to address the points pace. I spend nearly as much time analyzing and coming up with a projection for projected games played as I do for the points-per-game average. I look very carefully at the amount of games a player misses year over year, giving weight to recency (if healthy) and also determining (if injured) whether or not the injury was a one-off or a trend. I agonized over this stuff quite a bit. So if a player is listed as 55 points in 65 games, yes that implies that his full-season pace is 69 points. But, if a player ends up staying healthy and somehow getting in those 17 extra games, I tend to treat it as if he slows a bit and I play it conservatively. So in this case I would draft him like he's 55 points, but if my league has an IR then I would treat him as 65 (not 69). Meaning, I would dial it back just a little. As far as a full-season outlook though, just be comfortable knowing that I really dive into each player's injury trends.

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Big Jump

Jack Roslovic – This is a wildcard here, as it obviously depends on whether he gets