Wild West: Goaltending Tiers from Saros to Grubauer
Grant Campbell
2022-09-12
As Brennan Des looked at the different tiers of goaltending in the Eastern Conference last week, we will do the same for the Western Conference this week. Just a reminder that these tiers are subjective and meant as a guide to help you for fantasy purposes, not necessarily the level of skill of each goalie.
Tier 1A
No one – I don't think there is anyone in the West who measures up to Andrei Vasilevskiy or Igor Shesterkin. They are elite goalies who can play 65-70 games and churn out 35-40 wins every season. Saros has done it for one year and if he does it again this season, we will re-visit next year. The same holds true for Markstrom and Demko.
Tier 1B
Juuse Saros – Nashville Predators – I must admit that I was a little skeptical of Saros and his ability to play more than 40 games in a season and play well. He converted me into a believer last year when he played 67 games and had 38 wins, a 91.8 save percentage and his second consecutive season with a GSAA (goals saved above average) over 20. He's the real deal and just a bit above the rest in the West.
Tier 2
Connor Hellebuyck – Winnipeg Jets – The great thing about Hellebuyck is that you know if healthy he is going to play 60-65 games next season. He might not duplicate his 2017-18 season when he played 67 games and had 44 wins but he should get 30-35 wins next year. His GSAA of 7.42 was the lowest he has had since 2016-17. He would be tier one if Winnipeg was a better team.
Jacob Markstrom – Calgary Flames – Markstrom played a career-high 63 games last year and had 37 wins, a 92.2 save percentage and a GSAA of 26.12. He had a phenomenal year but he has an injury and getting fatigued history. I've said this many times, but the Flames should limit him to 50-55 games a year to get the most out of him over the season. I think he's a lock for 30-35 wins next year.
Thatcher Demko – Vancouver Canucks – Demko had never played more than 35 games in a year before playing 64 last season. He did tire a little towards the end of the season but was still able to get 33 wins, a 91.5 save percentage and put up a GSAA of 14.93. I think the Canucks will try to limit him to 55-60 games next year, but they do have question marks with Spencer Martin and Collin Delia as backups, which might elevate Demko's appearances once again and he should get 30-35 wins.
Jake Oettinger – Dallas Stars – He ended up with 48 games last year which was his second in the NHL, but started 38 games in the second half of the season, which bodes well for his workload this year. He managed 30 wins in his 48 games with a 91.4 save percentage and a 9.60 GSAA. He should see 55-60 starts this season and could be good for 30-35 wins.
Jack Campbell – Edmonton Oilers – Campbell played a career-high 49 games last year with Toronto and had 31 wins, a 91.4 save percentage and a GSAA of 9.99. Now that he is in Edmonton, I think they will try to get him to 50-55 games, where he should win 30-35 games on another very good team. The only thing keeping him from Tier one or two is the number of games I think he can play in a season is limited. His record in Toronto in 77 games was 51-14-9 which is pretty impressive.
Tier 3
Marc-Andre Fleury – Minnesota Wild – Fleury played 56 games last season split between Chicago and Minnesota where he won 28 games, had a save percentage of 90.8 and a GSAA of 3.75. In 11 games in Minnesota, his record was 9-2-0. I think the Wild will try to slot him in for 45-50 games and he should see 25-30 wins on a much better team than Chicago.
Jordan Binnington – St. Louis Blues – Since his fantastic rookie season in 2018-19 when the Blues won the Stanley Cup, Binnington hasn't started more than 50 games in a year. Last season he had 37 games and had 18 wins and struggled a little with a save percentage of 90.1 and a GSAA of negative 6.45. With the departure of Ville Husso, it opens the door for Binnington to play 50-55 games and get back up to 25-30 wins. He just needs to walk through that door and play well enough.
John Gibson – Anaheim Ducks – Gibson was a former Tier one goalie but has had three down seasons in a row. Last season he did play 56 games and had 18 wins with a save percentage of 90.4 and a GSAA of negative 5.62. The Ducks should be a little better this season but need Gibson to elevate his game. If he does that, he should play 55-60 games and get 25-30 wins. This is a situation where if Gibson struggles, Anthony Stolarz could grab those starts and run with it.
Pavel Francouz – Colorado Avalanche – I'm not sure how much higher someone who missed all of 2020-21 and only played 21 games last season could be? Even though he missed so much time, he didn't seem to miss a beat, albeit on an excellent team. He managed 15 wins with a save percentage of 91.6 and a GSAA of 5.55. Even if he manages 40-45 games on this team, he should get 25-30 wins.
Tier 4
Adin Hill – Vegas Golden Knights – Goaltending in Vegas is an unknown quantity at this point after Robin Lehner went down with an injury and will miss the season. Hill has a career-high of 25 games in five NHL seasons. He's been average across the board, but maybe average is all that Vegas needs at this point. I'm going to put him down for 40-45 games and 23-28 wins.
Phillip Grubauer – Seattle Kraken – Much like Binnington above, the Kraken is in too deep with Grubauer to not give him the majority of the starts in the net. His struggles last season are well-documented in the 55 games he did start, where he managed 18 wins, a save percentage of 88.9 and a league-worst GSAA of negative 26.64. I think both Grubauer and Seattle will be better this season and if he starts 55-60 games he should be good for 20-25 wins. Last year was the only time in his 10 NHL seasons that he had a negative GSAA.
Andrei Georgiev – Colorado Avalanche – After five seasons with the Rangers, Georgiev is now with Colorado. There is a tremendous opportunity for him next year to play over 35 games for the first time in his career. If he can manage that he should be good for 20-25 wins, but there is potential for more here. I'd have him up a tier, but his play last season was sub-par, so he'll need to turn it around.
Jonathan Quick – Los Angeles Kings – After three down seasons in a row, Quick had a surprisingly resurgent year last season. He managed to play 46 games with 23 wins, a 91.0 save percentage and a GSAA of 3.41. He is entering the last year of his contract with the Kings and could be traded at some point or the Kings might want to give Cal Petersen the starting role or look externally. I can't see Quick playing more than 35-40 games next year which might translate into 20-25 wins.
Cal Petersen – Los Angeles Kings – Petersen had a chance last season to grasp the starting role with the Kings, but he struggled for the most part. He played 37 games and had 20 wins with a save percentage of 89.5 and a GSAA of negative 11.81. He might get another shot at it this season, but if he struggles again the Kings will be forced to explore the trade or free agent route. If he can play 35-40 games again he should be good for 20 wins once again. He does have a small chance to play 50-55 and see 25-30 wins.
Tier 5
Karel Vejmelka – Arizona Coyotes – One thing we know is that Vejmelka should get 55-65 games this year if healthy. The unfortunate part is that he could get 100 starts and still only have 25-30 wins. Last season he played 52 games (34 in the second half) and had 13 wins with a save percentage of 89.8 and a GSAA of negative 12.97. This is a prime example of most of those stats being team stats as he was actually pretty good. I'm going to put him down for 15-20 wins.
Petr Mrazek – Chicago Blackhawks – Mrazek played 20 games for the Maple Leafs last year and struggled but still managed 12 wins with a save percentage of 88.8 and a GSAA of negative 9.64. There is a good chance he will be the starter in Chicago as he does have experience in that role with Detroit from 2015 to 2017 where he played 54 and 49 games. Even if he plays 50-55 games with the Blackhawks he will be limited to 15-20 wins.
Filip Gustavsson – Minnesota Wild – Gustavsson will get a shot to be the backup in Minnesota after coming over from Ottawa in the Cam Talbot trade. He has only played 27 career games in the NHL over two seasons, but Fleury might not be capable of anything more than 55 games, so he could see 30-35 games next year and could see 15-20 wins.
Logan Thompson – Vegas Golden Knights – Thompson was impressive in the 19 games he played for Vegas last year as a rookie. He won 10 games with a save percentage of 91.4 and a GSAA of 3.92. The questions are now, can he duplicate his play again and how many games will he get this year? He hasn't been a starter since his WHL days with Brandon in 2017-18. At this point, I'm putting Adin Hill slightly ahead of him, but Thompson could see 30-35 games with 17-22 wins this year.
Kaapo Kahkonen – San Jose Sharks – Kahkonen joined the Sharks from Minnesota and played 12 games with San Jose down the stretch and went 2-10-0, but played relatively well. Overall he played 37 games and had 14 wins with a save percentage of 91.2 and a GSAA of 5.21. He might get 45-50 games next season and could see 15-20 wins, but his GSAA might take a beating on a team not projected to do well.
Thomas Greiss – St. Louis Blues – Greiss played 31 games last year with Detroit and struggled albeit with a weaker-than-average defense. He had an 89.1 save percentage and a GSAA of negative 11.97. He will have the benefit of playing behind a much better defensive team in St. Louis and with Binnington as the starter, he could see 30-35 games next season which should be 15-20 wins.
Anthony Stolarz – Anaheim Ducks – The 28-year-old Stolarz turned pro in 2014-15 and has played 155 games in the AHL since then and 62 in the NHL since 2016-17. In his 62 NHL games, he has a save percentage of 91.5 and a GSAA of 12.2. Last season saw him play 28 games in Anaheim with a record of 12-8-3, a save percentage of 91.7 and a GSAA of 8.24. If Gibson stumbles again, Stolarz deserves a chance to play more games. As it stands he could see 30-35 games with a chance to win 15-20 of them.
Tier 6
James Reimer – San Jose Sharks – As Reimer is set to become an unrestricted free agent after this season, I thought that the Sharks would move him rather than Adin Hill. I was wrong. In his 12th NHL season, Reimer played a career-high 48 games last year and had 19 wins, with a save percentage of 91.1 and a GSAA of 5.85. I think he might get 35-40 games this year, but the Sharks might struggle which will keep his win total between 12-15.
Stuart Skinner – Edmonton Oilers – The backup job should be his in Edmonton this season. With Campbell, the starter and pegged to play 50-55 games that might leave Skinner to play 25-30 games. He has 14 career NHL games with a save percentage of 90.9 and a GSAA of 0.60. He could get 12-18 wins next year.
Dan Vladar – Calgary Flames – As the backup to Jacob Markstrom in Calgary last year, Vladar played in 23 games and had 13 wins, a 90.6 save percentage and a GSAA of negative 0.46. If the Flames do what I think they should and only start Markstrom 50-55 games, he could see an increase to 25-30 games this year where he would be in the 13-18 win territory.
Scott Wedgewood or Anton Khudobin – Dallas Stars – The Stars went with Braden Holtby at the start of last season and then with Jake Oettinger in the second half, so Khudobin was the odd man out and only played in nine games. With Oettinger in goal, the backup position in Dallas should only see 20-25 games, but that might be worth 12-17 wins. The 30-year-old Wedgewood had only played 40 NHL games before last season. Split between New Jersey, Arizona and Dallas he played 37 games with a record of 13-15-6, a save percentage of 91.0 and a GSAA of 3.27. He's earned himself the chance to be the backup in Dallas over Anton Khudobin and could play 20-25 games where he would be in line to win 12-17 times.
Tier 7
Kevin Lankinen or Connor Ingram – Nashville Predators – Lankinen joined Nashville after spending last season with Chicago. He struggled last year in 32 games after going 8-15-6 with a save percentage of 89.1 and a GSAA of negative 15.60. Ingram played 54 games in the AHL last season and played well with a 91.5 save percentage. At the age of 25, he could be ready for the NHL as a backup. The Predators just need either to be average and they should see 15-20 starts. He could win 10-12 games next year.
Martin Jones – Seattle Kraken – From 2015-16 to 2018-19, Jones had four years in a row with 30 wins or more while with San Jose. In the last season in 2018-19, he won 36 games in spite of a save percentage of 89.6 and a GSAA of negative 21.39. The last three years haven't been any kinder as he has struggled in both San Jose and Philadelphia with a negative GSAA each season. With Grubauer's play uncertain, Jones could get some more games before Chris Driedger returns in January of 2023. Right now, I think Jones will see 20-25 games and get 10-12 wins.
David Rittich – Winnipeg Jets – Rittich played 17 games last season with Nashville and 19 games the year before that split between Toronto and Calgary. With Hellebuyck in Winnipeg, expect more of the same with 15-20 games. He could win 8-12 games next season.
Spencer Martin or Collin Delia – Vancouver Canucks – Martin did everything you can ask of a goalie in the six games he played last year for the Canucks. His save percentage was 95.0 and his GSAA was 9.27. Obviously, he won't be able to maintain those numbers but he did have a save percentage of 91.4 in 25 AHL games as well. I think Martin has a leg up on Delia who was brought in for depth, but one never knows. The backup in Vancouver should see 15-20 games and could get 8-13 wins.
Tier 8
Below are some of the other goalies that might get a look at some point this season, but I don't think they are fantasy worthy. Of course in saying that, one of them will play 45 games and get 25 wins this year.
Joel Hofer – St. Louis Blues
Ivan Prosvetov – Arizona Coyotes
Jon Gillies – Arizona Coyotes
Alex Stalock – Chicago Blackhawks
Josef Korenar – Arizona Coyotes
Laurent Brossoit – Vegas Golden Knights
Robin Lehner – Vegas Golden Knights – Injured for the season
Chris Driedger – Seattle Kraken – Injured until January 2023
Thanks for reading and if you have any questions or players you'd like me to look at please message or follow me on Twitter @gampbler15.