Welcome back to Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, a play on words of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. Instead of there being three bowls of porridge though, I cover three skaters and declare one too hot (i.e., doing unsustainably better than he should), another too cold (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a third “just right” (i.e., producing where he should be). In addition, I also assign each a rating of 1-10, indicating how hot (rated 7-10, where 10 is the most unsustainably hot), cold (rated 1-4, where 1 is the most unsustainably cold), or “just right” (rated 4-7, where 5.5 is the most “just right”) he is.

For this last installment of Goldipucks before the 2022-23 season, I decided let's swing for the fences and cover three of the NHL's best players, namely Cale Makar, Nikita Kucherov, and Aleksander Barkov. Now that I have your undivided attention, the task turns to you to deduce which of the three – for 2021-22 – was too hot, who was too cold, and whose stats were just right. With stars like these in the crosshairs, the stakes are quite high, so let's hope you can sniff out the right answers.

Cale Makar (77 games, 28G, 58A, 240 SOG, 34 PPPts, 25:40 TOI, 3:50 PP, 70.5% PP%)

Drafted fourth overall in 2017, Makar opted to play two seasons of college hockey, where he produced better than a point per game then had six points in ten 2019 NHL playoff games, earning him a spot on the Avs for 2019-20, where he wowed to the tune of 50 points in 57 games. If there was concern about a sophomore slump, those fears were dispelled and then some as Makar bested his 72-point rookie pace with point per game numbers (44 points in as many games). Lest anyone think he was only doing well because he'd yet to play a full season, he saw his scoring rate jump ten points to 92 via 86 points in 77 games for 2021-22. Is it realistic to think Makar has another gear? The answer is a resounding yes.

Looking at 2021-22, Makar had 28 goals and shot 11.3%. That might seem high at first, but he'd been just below double digits for his career entering 2021-22, and, more importantly, hit a combined ten posts and crossbars. Not only does that lend legitimacy to his goal total, but it suggests he could tally even more. Beyond that, the list of defensemen who had 28+ goals in a season by age 23 dating back to 1980-81 includes just Paul Coffey, Ray Bourque, and Mike Green. Makar owners likely got shivers down their spine seeing Green's name; but as we know his career got derailed by injuries. As for Coffey, he had several seasons of over 100 points, while Bourque bested the 90-point rate three times. If I was to liken one to Makar it would be Coffey due to how well he did before age 23 and the fact he played for such a powerhouse offensive team, just like Makar does now.

Makar also shined in the 2022 playoffs, upping his scoring rate to a 119-point pace despite not having an elevated SH% (even though he had 3.6 SOG per game versus 3.1 during the regular season), seeing less PP time but more SH time, and ending up with roughly identical IPPs and secondary assists percentages as he had in the regular season. Yes, the Avs did raise their goals per game from 3.75 during the regular season to 4.25 in the playoffs; but that's only a 13% increase, whereas Makar's playoff scoring rate was 28% higher than his regular season rate; so although he might've received somewhat of a boost due to the team's increased scoring rate, if that had been the only explanation then he shouldn't have had such a marked increase or should've seen some of his luck-based metrics rise, which, as I noted, they didn't. What's more – this occurred in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, where many a veteran has failed amidst the glare of the spotlight. Makar's playoff success, especially at his age, suggests he's not near his ceiling.

Other factors that indicate he could still see more points per game include the PP. Yes, the Avs have excellent forwards who will grab their fair share of PPPts; however, Makar had 34 PPPts on a total of 67 team PPGs, for a rate of 0.507 PPPts per team PPG. Looking at other rearguards among the top five in PPPts for 2021-22, Victor Hedman had 38 PPPts out of 67 PPGs, Roman Josi had 37 out of 63, Adam Fox had 33 out of 55, and Quinn Hughes had 31 out of 58. It turns out Makar had a smaller share of PPPts than any of the other top five defensemen in PPPts. Their average was .571, which, had that been Makar's rate, he'd have tallied five more PPPts, bringing his scoring rate to 97 points just based on that factor.

Shifting back to posts and crossbars, if we look at the five other rearguards who had 15+ goals for the 2021-22 season, their combined goal total was 91, with 22 combined posts and crossbars hit, for a rate of .24 posts and crossbars per goal. Contrast that to Makar's 28 goals and ten combined crossbars and posts, for a rate of .35 posts and crossbars per goal. If his rate had been .24 instead, he'd have potted four more goals. Add that to Makar's PPPt boost, and now his scoring rate would've been an even higher 101 points.

Oh, and let's not forget – Makar has yet to hit his 200-game breakout threshold, ending 2021-22 at game #178. If you add the 35 playoff games he logged in prior seasons, he was at career game 203 right when the 2021-22 playoffs began, and then lo and behold the scoring floodgates opened. Coincidence? I think not. Instead, it suggests that what we saw from Makar is him reaching a higher level which should be sustainable but for a small drop due to the Avs' scoring rate likely retracing from its playoff per game rate.

Another factor that suggests Makar can happen upon more points in the normal course has to do with his defensive partner Devon Toews, who took the ice for 75% of Makar's ES minutes last season. Toews had 45 ES points; but Makar shared a point on only 15 of those, meaning Toews had 30 ES points on goals where Makar did not factor into the scoring. Taking into account that they shared the ice only 75% of the time at ES, let's assume 75% of those 30 points, or 23 points, came when Makar was indeed on the ice at the same time. Toews also had eight goals, so 75% of those would be six, such that let's assume Toews had roughly 17 even strength assists while on the ice with Makar. Why is that important? Because 75% of Toews' assists were secondary assists, which, if it sounds high, is because it is. In fact, of the 11 defensemen who had more assists than Toews for 2021-22, the average secondary assist rate was 56.4%. As such, Toews should've had only nine even strength assists on goals where Makar was on the ice but did not factor into the scoring. It only follows that if Toews didn't get an assist on those nine goals, Makar, whose secondary assist rate was 50%, likely would've had four or five more points in the normal course. If so, and adding those to those extras that should've come via the PP and not having hit crossbars and posts, and now Makar's 2021-22 scoring rate should've been 106 points.

In sum, if you thought Makar significantly overachieved in the playoffs, think again. Yes, he likely got a bit of a boost by his team scoring more goals; however, between points that he should've earned on the PP, those he should've had due to not hitting as many crossbars and posts, and assists that unsustainably went to his defensive partner Devon Toews, not to mention that counting the playoffs Makar is right at his breakout threshold, and you have the ingredients for a defenseman who can – and should – be able to score in the 100-105+ point range. Accordingly, Makar's 2021-22 was TOO COLD, and he gets a rating of 1.75. Not only is he as good as advertised, but he's even better and arguably the best keeper in almost any league format and among all positions. If you own him in your leagues, be grateful.

Nikita Kucherov (47 games, 25G, 44A, 156 SOG, 30 PPPts, 19:59 TOI, 3:54 PP, 74.7% PP%)

Amazingly, given all he's subsequently done in his stellar career, Kucherov had to wait until nearly the end of the second round to hear his name called on draft day in 2011. Thereafter, it didn't take long for Kucherov to shine, as the next season he had nearly two points per game in juniors and then, in 2013-14, 24 in 17 AHL contests. Yet Kucherov only had 18 points in 52 games in the NHL that same season. For 2014-15 however, he made the most of limited action, scoring at a 65 point pace despite taking the ice for just 14:57 per game. All he did in the next four campaigns was see his scoring rate rise in each one, culminating in 128 points for 2018-19, which still stands as the highest point total posted by any player since 1995-96. Just as it seemed Kucherov was going to be an all-time great though, he produced at a 103 point rate in 2019-20, and subsequently missed the entire 2020-21 regular season before returning to post a 114 point scoring rate in the playoffs and then a 123 point rate in 2021-22, before again seeing that total drop, this time to under a 100 point rate in the 2022 playoffs. Will we witness a time when Kucherov produces at the highest level two seasons in a row, or will his totals continue to yo-yo? Based on the data, it looks like Kucherov, now fully healthy again for the first time in a few seasons, should be able to produce at a 120+ point level for 2022-23.

Looking at Kucherov's data from his last three seasons, two of which saw him produce at a 120+ point level and the other at "merely" a 103 point pace, at first it would be difficult to surmise which seasons were which, as his SOG rate was 3.0-3.3 for each, his Shooting Percentage was 15.7-16.7% in the three campaigns, and his PPTOI was 3:33-3:54. Yes, his overall TOI was a minute less in his "off" season; but that should not be enough of a factor to explain a 20% drop in production.

Where, then, does the difference lie? In PPPts. His PPPts per game in his two top seasons were .64 PPPts/game (2021-22) and .58 (2018-19) versus .36 in his "off" season. Before we saw what we did in 2021-22, it was anyone's guess which version of Kucherov was for real. But his output in 2021-22 settled that question, as did the fact that Kucherov's PP IPP has been in the range of 78.3-86.5% in five of the past six seasons, yet in 2019-20 it dropped to merely 71.4%, which, make no mistake, was still a great number; however, it was atypically low for Kucherov, making it so his rates for 2018-19 and 2021-22, when he scored at a 120+ point rate, are indeed representative of what he really brings to the table.

Staying on the topic of IPPs, Kucherov's overall IPP for 2021-22 was amazingly a six-season low at 72.6%, down from the range of 75.9%-82.0% it was in his prior five seasons. And it even had been 78.0% in his "poor" 2019-20, versus 82.6% in his 128 point 2018-19. So the fact he nearly equated his 2018-19 scoring pace even though his IPP overall was markedly lower than his prior best, and even as compared to his down 2019-20, is a positive sign.

But the reassurances don't just end there. Kucherov's secondary assist rate was 40.9% in 2021-22, down from 48.1% in his "off" 2019-20 season and nearly identical to the 39.1% it had been in his record breaking 2018-19 season. And his 2021-22 OZ%, at 58.7%, was the second lowest since he became a full time NHLer, though not by much, as it'd been 59-60% in four of his prior six seasons. In fact, perhaps the only area of concern is that Kucherov's 5×5 team shooting percentage for 2021-22 was 12.9%, after ranging from 10.18-10.95% in his prior three seasons. Still any unsustainable gains he had there likely would be balanced by his unsustainably low overall IPP, for a net wash.

What about player comparables? Going back to 1990-91, just two wingers scored at a 120+ point pace in the same age range as Kucherov: Jaromir Jagr and Brett Hull. Of the two, the more apt comparable would be Jagr, as Hull was a sniper. Jagr did slow somewhat once he reached Kucherov's age; however, that coincided with his time in Washington; and once he went to the Rangers, he rattled off seasons of 123 and 96 points. Let's not forget that Jagr had a lot more mileage on him than Kucherov by age 29, having been a full time NHLer at age 18 and, missing fewer games along the way. As such, the two 120+ point seasons Jagr had at ages 26 and 28, are more similar to what would be expected from Kucharov over the next couple of seasons.

What about Kucherov's linemates and the extent – if any – that they factored into his performance in his best seasons? In 2018-19, Kucherov shared the ice most often at even strength with Tyler Johnson and Brayden Point, while for 2021-22 it was Ondrej Palat and Point. In 2018-19, Johnson had a 48-point scoring rate while Point's was 95, and then in 2021-22, Point's rate dropped to 72 and Palat's was 52. Kucherov was able to excel when he had a successful fellow linemate, and another time when he didn't. In other words, he does not need to be carried by his linemates, but at the same time he can succeed even if one of them does well, further validating his 2018-19 and 2021-22 scoring rates.

The question of who the real Kucherov is appears to have indeed been settled by his output in 2021-22, where he once again excelled on the man advantage and his other metrics were either typical for him or, to the extent any were high (i.e., 5×5 shooting percentage) they were offset by a low metric (i.e., overall IPP). Kucherov is just that damn good, and should be for several more seasons given his that his hockey age is younger than his actual age and his ability to succeed whether or not those around him do so. As such, Kucharov's 2021-22 was JUST RIGHT, and he gets a rating of 4.75. The expectation should be that if he is able to stay healthy he should produce at a 120+ point level.

Aleksander Barkov (67 gms, 39G, 49A, 214 SOG, 26 PPPts, 20:18 TOI, 3:29 PP, 57.2 PP%)

Selected second overall in 2013, Barkov was plopped directly into the NHL and collectively was below the point per every other game mark after his first two seasons. But in his third campaign he scored, in 66 games, just one less point than he had in his first 125 contests. By 2017-18 he was nearly at the point per game mark, and then in 2018-19 he exploded for 96 points. When poolies had concerns after seeing him dip to a 77-point rate in 2019-20, Barkov rose back to a 95-point rate in 2020-21 then to a 108 point pace in 2021-22. With Barkov still in his prime, and him likely being able to center newly acquired Matthew Tkachuk, should we expect Barkov to fare at least as well in 2022-23, or perhaps even better? I'd say neither, as signs point to Barkov having bested a 100-point scoring rate as more likely than not a one year aberration.

Right off the bat there's Barkov's SH%, which, entering 2021-22 stood at 13.5%, but was 18.2% in 2021-22. Had he shot at his normal rate he'd have finished with 29 goals, not 39, dropping his scoring rate to 95, which, no surprise, is right where it'd been in his two prior highest scoring seasons. Yes, Barkov did take fewer SOG per game so it is conceivable he was more accurate in the shots he took; but that doesn't hold water since his rate was 2.6 per game when he dipped to a 77-point pace but also 2.5 per game in his 96 point 2018-19 campaign, and his rate of SOG from 0-15, 16-30 and 31+ feet for 2021-22 was essentially identical as it was in his two prior best seasons. That's one strike against Barkov.

There's also Barkov's PP scoring rate, which, at .388 per game in 2021-22 and like his SOG rates from various distances, was virtually unchanged from what it was in 2020-21 (.380) and 2018-19 (0.378). Moreover, dating back to 2000-01, of the 57 instances of a center scoring at a 1.2+ (i.e., 98) points per game pace in 40+ games, just three had a lower PPPts per game pace than Barkov's, with Connor McDavid doing so twice, and Leon Draisaitl and Henrik Sedin both once. In the case of McDavid, and Draisaitl they did so when Edmonton was still struggling on the PP as a team, while it occurred for Sedin when he was focused more on even strength, which accounted for 83 of his 112 points that season. So Barkov's repeated inability to produce exceptionally well on the PP makes him unlike the vast majority of centers who've scored at a 98+ point pace.

On top of this, 17 of Barkov's 27 PPPts in 2021-22 featured Jonathan Huberdeau also recording a PPPt. Nothing against Matthew Tkachuk, but Huberdeau had the third most PPPts of any forward over the past four seasons, whereas Tkachuk stood 22nd, with 30% fewer. Barkov might even find it tough to reach even his normal .38 PPPts per game rate with Huberdeau no longer in the mix.

Barkov's better 2021-22 production also is not in line with his IPPs, as for 2021-22 they were 57.8% on the PP and 69.8% overall. The 69.8% rate is roughly in the middle of his 74.4% and 66.7% rates from his two prior excellent seasons, while 57.8% is quite a bit lower than the 65.5% it was last season but nearly identical to his 56.4% from his 96-point campaign. Moreover, his secondary assist rate for 2021-22 stood at 46.9%, or more than double his 21.9% rate from 2020-21 and even above the 37.9% it was in 2018-19. Even if we toss out the 21.9% rate from last season as aberrational, if it'd been 37.9% in 2021-22 instead of 46.9%, and none of the lost secondary assists were repackaged as primary assists or goals, then Barkov would've shed five points, further lowering his scoring rate.

Lastly there's the boost Barkov received from just being on the Panthers. In his two prior best seasons Florida averaged 3.22 goals and 3.35 goals per game. Last season, however, that rate exploded to 4.11, making the Panthers the first team since the 1995-96 Penguins to exceed the four goals per game rate. Seeing this, if anything I'd have expected Barkov to perhaps see a bigger boost in scoring, much like Huberdeau and Aaron Ekblad. But the fact Barkov saw more modest gains indicates he's not dialed into the offense to an extent he would need to be in order to score more than 95 or 96 points in a "normal" year.

Barkov is a fine player and has earned his role as a #1 center, but given his numbers in 2021-22 versus his prior two best seasons, looking at player comparables, and taking into account Florida's unsustainable goal scoring binge, Barkov is someone whose ceiling is in the 90s, not 105+ points with the addition of Matthew Tkachuk not changing that. As such, Barkov's 2021-22 was TOO HOT and he gets a rating of 9.25, as he's a 90-95 point player, with a better chance of slipping below 90 than topping a 100 point pace again.

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Questions for Mailbag

My next monthly mailbag still has plenty of room for questions. To get your non-keeper questions to me, you can (1) private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums or, (2) send an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.