Capped: Good Values on Vrana, Krejci, Forsling, and Merzlikins
Jamie Molloy
2022-09-15
With draft season right around the corner, what better time to start discussing potential draft picks to help you acquire the championship in your respective league. While many times your best performances come from the guys that you take in the early rounds of the draft as they often become your core pieces, the players that you select in the middle/late stages of the draft are the ones that give you the depth to be able to make that championship run. It's important to draft well early in the draft, but to me it is far more important to hit on the mid-round draft picks and it is generally harder to hit the nail on the head in the later rounds as there are far more question marks later in the draft than early in the draft.
A sleeper pick to me is a player that will perform better than where they were drafted to in the draft, generally based on their ADP (average draft position). These are also players that if you believe in heavily to perform well for you, don't be afraid to be aggressive in the draft and take a guy a few rounds earlier than projected.
* For this article, I won't be including the stat tables that I'm sure many of you are used to seeing from me. With the nature of this being a discussion about team fit, line chemistry, projected usage, etc. This doesn't require stat tables as this isn't discussing the value of a contract to a real-life perspective. *
#1) Jakub Vrana – LW – Detroit Red Wings
Contract: $5.25M – 2 Years remaining
Vrana has been fairly limited in NHL game action over the past two seasons, only playing in 37 total games (30 points, 21 have been goals). While I don't think anybody expects that goal pace to continue into next season, this is a player who may be playing on a team that may not make the playoffs, but he has always been a solid producer on the second line during his career with the Capitals. I would say in Detroit there is a better chance of him being on the ice in a crucial moment given the Red Wings lack of elite offensive talent. Realistically he will be deployed on the second line that received an overhaul this summer alongside of Andrew Copp and David Perron (both solid players in their own right). If the Red Wings top-six begin to struggle, maybe we see a duo of Dylan Larkin and Jakub Vrana through stretches of the season. Vrana may not be able to help you in the hits and blocks columns, he can sure help in the pure offensive stats, including the powerplay. If the injuries that he has faced don't scare you, I would recommend this player.
#2) David Krejci – C – Boston Bruins
Contract: $1M – 1 Year remaining (expires this upcoming summer)
While Krejci is a 15-year veteran in the NHL and a widely respected player across the league, he did not play in the NHL last year so that leaves some people wondering how well he can do in a return to the biggest stage in the world. In his last NHL season (2020-2021) he had 44 points across 51 games. Given the Bruins seemingly lack of depth in the middle of the ice, I have a hard time believing that he won't be their second line center behind Patrice Bergeron. Expect Krejci to play alongside Taylor Hall and David Pastrnak to start the season. This is a player that won't help you in the hits and blocks areas, or goals, but for a player making not too much more than league minimum, surrounded by elite talent on the wings, only three seasons of his FO% being less than 50%, and finally the potential of putting up 50+ points. That is a lot of value to pass up on as there are players who make far more than him, that will produce less offensively than him. This is a player that I could see going in the VERY late stages of a draft or being undrafted.
#3) Gustav Forsling – D – Florida Panthers
Contract: $2.666M – 2 Years remaining
Forsling produced career highs in goals (10), assists (27), plus/minus (41), shots (145), blocks (86), hits (45), and ATOI (21:13). Expect Forsling to build on those totals now that Mackenzie Weegar is no longer ahead of him on the depth chart, I believe there is a reality where we could see Forsling alongside of Aaron Ekblad on the top pairing, and one where Forsling gets some power play action. Of his 37 points last season, not a single one of them came from the man advantage, while only playing in 71 games for the Panthers last season he had a 42-point pace throughout an 82-game season. The Panthers also have multiple lines that can produce on the offensive side of the puck, so there shouldn't be any lack of opportunity for Forsling to produce. I highly recommend this player as he should produce either around the same as what he did last season, or improve upon his totals given a potential new opportunity in deployment.
#4) Elvis Merzlikins – G – Columbus Blue Jackets
Contract: $5.4M – 5 Years remaining
While posting career highs in games played (59) and wins (27) last season, his GAA and SV% took a bit of a dip from the previous year. Columbus values this goalie highly given the contract they just handed out to him. While the Blue Jackets defensive core remains mostly the same from last season, the team brought in a forward that we all know, this being Johnny Gaudreau. I know he isn't the most defensive player out there, but at times the Blue Jackets struggled to score last year (ranked in the middle of the road in goals for last season) so that didn't help Merzlikins win games at times last season. I has been a long offseason for this team as I don't think many people had this team being that below average last year. On paper, Merzlikins is clearly a starting goaltender in the NHL, he is going to get the majority of the work for the Blue Jackets between the pipes. If you're looking at bolstering your skaters and being a little weaker in net, then this is a goalie that is worth a gamble to be your leading goaltender by acquiring him in the middling stages of the draft. When you bring in an all-star player like Gaudreau, sure it helps the offensive side of the game. But bringing in a superstar like him can influence the entire locker room in the sense of the energy levels and the overall compete levels of the team, regardless of position. I think taking a gamble on Merzlikins is worth it at the end of the day, he can produce league average numbers on a team that is projected to get more wins this year than last year.
These are realistically some of the biggest sleeper players for me this year based on their contracts, the way I view their respective hockey clubs, and the player talent. There are many sleepers out there this year and next week I will have another article coming out highlighting a few more of them, but for now this is my sleeper list!
If you're looking to discuss anything hockey with me, check out my Twitter account (@JamieMolloy_DH), as well as on the articles themselves!