Frozen Tool Forensics: Potential Disappointments

Chris Kane

2022-09-16

With the fantasy season fast approaching, draft prep is key. You have your projections, your spreadsheets, your tiers, or maybe you are just going to wing it. Either way it is important to have an idea which players might be overvalued at the draft table. There are lots of articles out there analyzing Yahoo's rankings, or mock ADPs, but I wanted to touch in on a few stats that can be helpful, especially when viewed together, and to flag a few names that we maybe shouldn't be reaching for in drafts.

There are lots of great places to look to analyze performances, and the player profile pages contain them all. What is a little trickier is running a large report so that you can filter and sort, but that is what we are going to run through today.

For the purposes of these tables my target stats were personal shooting percentage, team 5-on-5 shooting percentage, IPP, and secondary assist percentage. I also was interested in time on ice, and expected goal numbers, but the table got a little unwieldy for this format so I slimmed down my criteria a bit. I chose a lot of these stats because with the exception of time on ice and expected goals (which I ended up not including) there is a lot of variance baked in to the result. If players are showing deviations from their norm in these stats chances are at some point it is going to regress back to the mean.

I used the Big Board Report to grab time on ice, games played numbers, point pace numbers, and time on ice (I used the point pace and games played numbers to account for small sample sizes and make sure we were focusing on fantasy relevant players). I then pulled the Advanced Stats report to get 5-on-5 shooting performance, IPP, and secondary assist percentage. I also used the time frame feature on the reports page so that I could compare 2021-22 data to that player's recent average. I ran a report for the 2021-22 season, and then a three-year report to get the reference point.

The table below shows the top scoring players who had positive numbers (meaning performed higher than their average in 2021-22).

    Change in Performance
NamePosAgeTeamS%5on5 S%IPPSec Asst %
ALEKSANDER BARKOVC27FLA3.10%0.530.208.10
MATTHEW TKACHUKR24FLA2.92%2.03