To follow up on my recent analysis of ADPs, a Twitter follower messaged me about Mark Scheifele's ADP being as low as it is because of his decreased value in multicategory leagues relative to points-only leagues. True, Scheifele is more valuable in points leagues. In fact, Dobber has him projected to be a top-25 scorer. Scheifele has been a reliable point-per-game scorer for each of the last six seasons, and he is still only 29 years old. Although he is not in the McDavid/Draisaitl/Kucherov stratosphere of scorers over that period, Scheifele has been in the top 20 in both points (432) and points-per-game (1.04) over those six years.

Again, it's understood that Scheifele would fall in multicategory leagues due to light peripheral coverage. He's clearly not a top-25 option in multicategory leagues, due to a light hits total (less than one per game), a good-but-not-great power-play point total (outside the top 50 last season), and a relatively low shot total (never taken 200 shots in a season). However, Scheifele being valued below 100 for those reasons seems excessive. He appeared at #60 on a Fantasy Hockey Geek report that I ran for one of my multicategory leagues (G, A, +/-, SOG, PPP, HITS, BKS).

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It's been a while since I've written about some of the top Frozen Tools searches of the week. There were some interesting names at the top of the list this week, so I thought I'd use the opportunity to discuss why they might be players of interest.

Daniil Tarasov

This might be the most surprising name, and he's at the top of the list. Not Alexei Melnichuk surprising (if you remember a couple years ago when he was at the top of the list for some strange reason), but probably not who you were expecting. In case you've never heard of Tarasov, he is the Blue Jackets' top goaltending prospect. Although his AHL numbers last season were relatively average (3.06 GAA, .893 SV%), he might be appearing in a lot of searches because his save percentage in four NHL seasons was rather high (.937 SV%).

The Jackets already have their two goalies for the season in Elvis Merzlikins and Joonas Korpisalo. The latter goalie posted abysmal numbers (4.15 GAA, .877 SV%), although a hip problem that required surgery might have had something to do with it. Coincidentally, Tarasov also underwent hip surgery, so the AHL might be the best place for him to work his way back and gain experience. In the event of an Elvis injury, watch for Tarasov, particularly later in the season. Under normal circumstances, though, he's more likely to make an NHL impact in 2023-24.

Elias Pettersson

Pettersson's fourth season was last season, and it didn't start off well. After 22 games, Petey had scored just three goals with seven assists. Bruce Boudreau was just two games into his tenure as Canucks coach at that point, and Canucks fans and Pettersson owners were crossing their fingers that his fortunes were about to change under the enthusiastic new coach. They did, as Pettersson was a point-per-game player for the rest of the season (58 points in 58 games, including 29 goals).

During the COVID-shortened season, Pettersson had been having issues with his wrist, which forced his season to end in early March. The rehab for that wrist issue combined with an unresolved contract situation that nearly dragged into the regular season seemed to cause the slow start. The thinking with Pettersson is that with a proper offseason schedule, he should be on track to perform at full potential, which would result in his first point-per-game season.

Pettersson isn't strong in peripherals, and he seems to profile similarly to the aforementioned Scheifele in categories like shots and hits. For that reason, he generally isn't a player that I target in multicategory single-season drafts (even though I have admitted time and time again that I'm a Canucks fan). His ADP in both Yahoo and Fantrax is around 50, and I would wait for him to fall to at least that spot until I'd pick him. A breakout season would place him well inside that top-50, so you could pick him before 50 if you are extremely bullish on him. Yet the Frozen Tools Player Compare (link below) shows them as extremely similar players in spite of the wide gap in their ADPs on Yahoo (Scheifele Yahoo ADP 132).

Player Compare: Pettersson/Scheifele

Tim Stutzle

If you're looking for players to potentially break out this season, Stutzle seems like a good one to bet on. Stutzle started his sophomore 2021-22 season slowly with just one goal and eight points in his first 21 games. He then managed to slowly increase his production to 31 points over his last 27 games. Some of that had to do with Drake Batherson's injury, although Stutzle managed to keep it going even after Batherson's return.

Whether Stutzle is in fact ready, the future is now for him. The Sens recently signed him to an eight-year contract extension with an $8.35 AAV. Those contracts reward the player, but they also carry the weight of high expectations. Fantasy leaguers are starting to notice, as Stutzle has an ADP of just below 100 in both Yahoo and Fantrax. I had picked him at 92 in one mock draft, as he fit a positional need for me at both center and left wing. Should his second-half production carry over to this season on what is now a loaded Senators attack, Stutzle could be drafted much higher than that by this time next season.

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I finally tried a Fantrax mock draft on Saturday. Here are my results:

Scoring categories are A, G, Hit, SHG, SOG, PPP, GA, SW, SHO, W, and even goalie assists. Also note that Fantrax does not distinguish between C, LW, and RW, instead using the F position. As well, the results get kept all season in a "best ball" league, which might provide a little added incentive. After all, you wouldn't want to lose to an autopicker!

Here are my best and worst picks when comparing to their Fantrax ADPs:

Best pick: Josh Norris (ADP 80) – I think the ADP here is a bit high for Norris, as he has an ADP of 90 on Yahoo. I really like Norris, though, so I was more than happy to add him here. He seems like a solid bet to build on last season, particularly with the Senators' upgrades.

Honorable mention: Zach Werenski, who I was able to grab at pick 95 even though he had an ADP of 61. I think that ADP is too high, but Werenski makes sense as a pick at around that point.

Worst pick: Jeremy Swayman (ADP 161) – I personally think that ADP is low for Swayman, who has posted excellent numbers at the NHL level. The only issue is how many starts he'll receive in what appears to be a timeshare with Linus Ullmark, who could even hold the upper hand because of his larger contract. I wanted to pick a goalie here, yet they seemed to be dropping like flies at this point. Cam Talbot, Elvis Merzlikins, Jordan Binnington, Matt Murray, Ville Husso, John Gibson, Logan Thompson, and Ilya Samsonov had all been drafted in that round and the previous on. I probably should have just drafted my goalie in the previous round instead of grabbing Torey Krug to fill out my defense.

Honorable mention: The aforementioned Krug, who I realized had an ADP of 133 after the draft. Not my best stretch of the draft, obviously.

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Follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding for more fantasy hockey.