Capped: More Sleeper Values, Including Kempe, Newhook, Johnson, and More
Jamie Molloy
2022-09-22
Last week I touched on some potential sleeper picks to keep your eyes out for, the same will go for this week. With the amount of depth that is in the NHL these days, the list of guys who have the potential to out-rank their respective average draft position has deepened as the years have gone on.
I opted to discuss this again this week as in my opinion the league is won and lost by the guys that you take in the middle to late rounds of your draft, they help provide you with secondary production to help mitigate slow nights from your star players.
A sleeper pick to me is a player that will perform better than where they were drafted to in the draft, generally based on their ADP (average draft position). These are also players that if you believe in heavily to perform well for you, don't be afraid to be aggressive in the draft and take a guy a few rounds earlier than projected.
* For this article, I won't be including the stat tables that I'm sure many of you are used to seeing from me. With the nature of this being a discussion about team fit, line chemistry, projected usage, etc. This to me doesn't overly require stat tables as this isn't discussing the value of a contract to a real-life perspective. *
#1) Alex Newhook – C – Colorado Avalanche
Contract: $908K – 1 Year remaining (RFA this upcoming summer)
With Nazem Kadri no longer on the team and the Avalanche just making Nathan MacKinnon the highest paid player in the game, the Avalanche are going to be in a position where they're required to lean on a player like Newhook to replace him as their second line center. While Newhook may only be 21 years hold, he was selected 16th overall in the 2019 NHL Entry Draft for his elite skillset. This may be a little soon for Newhook to take on that kind of role, but in today's game it may be better to be bathed in fire. He had 33 points in 71 games last season, so just under a half-a-point per season pace, this was achieved by playing third line minutes alongside of guys like Logan O'Connor and Nicolas Aube-Kubel. Going from playing with those types of players to potentially suiting up alongside guys like Valeri Nichushkin and Artturi Lehkonen should provide a solid boost in Newhook's stats. For a player making less than $1 million this season, he could be one of, if not the cheapest player to hit 50 points.
#2) Adrian Kempe – C – Los Angeles Kings
Contract: $5.5M – 4 Years remaining
The LA Kings may not have the flashiest players on their roster, they sure do have some underrated assets. None may be as underrated as Adrian Kempe in my eyes as he quietly put up 35 goals (a career high by over double) while seeing regular ice time alongside of the life-long King, Anze Kopitar. This was Kempe's breakout season, his shot volumes increased to over 3 shots per contest, he had over 100 hits through 78 games played, his ATOI shot up to just over 18:30 per night. He managed to do so while having a revolving door of wingers play alongside the duo, so expect the arrival of Kevin Fiala to add some stability and provide a more natural scoring winger to the line. Kempe should be a benefactor to this addition and should provide some nice value for a team that is looking to compete while Kopitar and Drew Doughty are beginning to get older.
#3) Tim Stutzle – LW – Ottawa Senators
Contract: $925K – 1 Year remaining
$8.35M – 8 Years remaining (extension signed to kick-in during the 2023-2024 season)
I know I talk about the Senators every now and then, but there is a reason for that and it's because they've done something that is out of character for them and that is to lock up their elite talent, along with spending their cap space to land some superstar caliber players. Last season during the Senators weak season, Stutzle still managed to produce at a 60-point pace. Just a reminder, he only turned 20 years old in January of this year. He did this while playing alongside of players like Brady Tkachuk and Drake Batherson (those being the main two players). But now he gets a chance to play with all-class players in Claude Giroux and Alex DeBrincat and whether that is at even strength or primarily on the powerplay is yet to be seen. Either way, expect his own natural development to occur as well as being placed in a better position to put up points. Overall, if Stutzle can manage to keep hitting at the rate that he did last year (125 through 19 games), see an increase in overall offensive production, and keep his ice-time in the 18- to 20-minute range he will be an elite fantasy asset for years to come. May have to buy-in on him a bit earlier than you may like to, but for a player with his ceiling, there are worst players to draft.
#4) Kent Johnson – C – Columbus Blue Jackets
Contract: $925K – 2 Years remaining
This one may come as a bit of a shock to some of you as he may not even be a lock to be in the NHL this season. This is a player that not many fantasy owners out there may be thinking about when drafting, picking Johnson is a huge risk given not knowing his NHL status. If you do pick him, it is because you have the ability to keep at least some players from year-to-year. I have him on this list for a reason though and that's because overall he does have a high talent level to his game. Columbus has some of the better goal scorers in the game on the wing (Patrik Laine & Johnny Gaudreau) and their top two centers project to be Boone Jenner and Jack Roslovic. Jenner is going to be a mainstay on that top line (he could also be a nice asset to acquire in fantasy this season, just a heads up) this year it seems, but that second line center spot may be up in the air. If Roslovic isn't producing early, we could see a shake-up to the lines in Columbus and either Johnson or Cole Sillinger could get a promotion to the top six. Roslovic could get injured and that leaves a spot for a player like Johnson to step in and dish the puck out to the veteran wingers that the Blue Jackets have. While we can't predict the future on that, in the interim Johnson wouldn't be a horrible very late round selection depending on your league's format/structure or a guy that you keep an eye out for on free agency post-draft. The question with Kent Johnson is that will this be the year he gets a look in the NHL, or is it next year. If it's this year, he could make a splash as a 'surprise rookie'.
These are realistically some of the biggest sleeper players for me this year based on their contracts, the way I view their respective hockey clubs, and the player talent. There are many sleepers out there this year and next week I will have another article coming out highlighting a few more of them, but for now this is my sleeper list!
If you're looking to discuss anything hockey with me, check out my Twitter account (@JamieMolloy_DH), as well as on the articles themselves!