The Journey: Prospect Goalies as Trade Bait (Levi, McKay, Blomqvist, Portillo, and others)

Ben Gehrels

2022-09-24

Welcome back to The Journey, where we follow hockey prospects and their paths to the NHL, providing fantasy predictions and analysis along the way.

The 2022-23 season is just around the corner, and in the flurry of fantasy drafts happening recently the question of how to accurately assess, predict, and draft goaltenders continues to frustrate poolies everywhere. Last year, Nate from the Apples and Ginos site/podcast coalesced our collective rage into an insightful thesis statement known as Zero-G, a strategy that involves fading goalies until the later rounds.

Definitely give that article a read if you haven't already. Many of us have been fading goalies for years but now we have a shiny name for it, and Nate outlines a number of excellent contextual insights, such as being more willing to replace duds with the latest Flavour of the Week because we didn't invest much in them to begin with. As he says, that can allow you to capture the latest Jack Campbell, Anton Forsberg, or Ville Husso who provide immense value at minimal cost.

Nate recently posted about Zero-G on Yahoo, which is basically taking it "mainstream" in the fantasy hockey world, so I will be curious to see moving forward what the effects will be on drafts as an increasingly large number of managers learn about and apply it. Going against the grain is a great way to create separation from the competition but the landscape is always shifting. It will be interesting to see if and when a competitive advantage opens up when a majority of managers in a league draft with Zero-G in mind.

A few months ago, he posted an amendment of sorts to Zero-G: "The 2021 data was so bad that I thought fading goalies was the only strategy that could outperform your league mates; the 2021-22 data has made me think that at the very least goalie volume is somewhat predictable and therefore mitigating risk by targeting goalies at the back end of the workhorse tier is a viable alternative."

In other words, waiting to draft a goalie is still a good idea, but make sure to use tiered rankings so you know when to strike to make sure you end up with at least one workhorse anchor.

This got me thinking about how best to read and approach the prospect goalie landscape. Some poolies absolutely love drafting high-end goaltenders like Yaroslav Askarov and Jesper Wallstedt and sitting on them for years in keeper and dynasty formats until they hopefully pay off down the road. I think this approach makes sense with the upper echelon of prospects at the position if you can afford the bench spot and don't mind being very patient.

But there is a ton of risk even with players of this calibre. How many of us have sat on Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen since 2017 waiting for him to emerge as the next Pekka Rinne? For every Carey Price there is a Carter Hart. A few years ago, someone in one of my leagues traded Hart straight up for Auston Matthews in a home-run attempt to lock down the next goaltending phenom. That attempt obviously hasn't aged well, but it goes to show how volatile goalie value can be.

I think it makes more sense to consider goalie prospects exclusively as trade chips. The manager who received Matthews in that trade, for instance, absolutely cleaned up by drafting and flipping Hart. That trade might sound lopsided and inconceivable now but at the time Hart looked like he was going to become what Igor Shesterkin is today, and many managers will move heaven and earth to stabilize their G slot with someone like that. Similarly to Zero-G, if you view goalie prospects only as trade chips, then you won't hesitate to move your goalie prospects when the right offer comes along because you aren't basing your strategy on keeping them and hoping they will eventually lock down your net.

Even if they are still years away from posting meaningful fantasy numbers, high-end goalie prospects like Spencer Knight, Askarov, and Wallstedt command incredible value on the open market—partly because they are so rare. Like the "shiny toy" phenomenon discussed here in recent weeks, managers will often pay through the nose to acquire prestigious pieces like these for their collections. With that in mind, snagging an elite goalie early in a farm draft can be a shrewd investment even if you don't plan on keeping them. The trick is to move those high-end goalie prospects when they are at peak value (ie. UPL in 2019), which can be difficult to determine because every league presents a different value climate.

Even more satisfying, however, is using your valuable draft picks on forwards and defenders and then picking up goalie prospects later for free off the waiver wire with an eye to flipping them when their value spikes.

A good example from last year was Devon Levi, who was named the Best Goalie in college hockey last year after posting 32 wins, a 1.54 G.A.A., and a 0.952 SV%. Levi was a seventh-round pick by Buffalo two years ago who was a relatively unknown commodity before his value skyrocketed last year. Part of the reason he came out of nowhere was that Northeastern's season was cancelled in his Draft+1 year due to Covid, which meant the World Juniors were his only chance to show what he could do—which, it turned out, was win seven games with sparkling ratios: 1.54 G.A.A. and 0.964 SV%. Levi also went to the Olympics last year, which added to his hype.

In one league, I was able to use Levi as the final piece to get a trade done for Filip Forsberg and Jacob Trouba. As soon as I moved him, I was able to fill the slot with a similar prospect goalie for free off the wire because here's the thing: when you dig past the obvious names at the top of the prospect goalie ranks, there is actually quite a lot of value to be had.

Here are some lesser-known goalie prospects to consider stashing as trade chips.

Isaiah Saville (VGK)

With Robin Lehner out until 2023-24, all eyes in Vegas are on the relatively unproven Logan Thompson this year. He is part of a three-headed goalie monster for the Knights along with Adin Hill and the currently injured Laurent Brossoit. Lost in the mix has been Saville who transitioned smoothly to the AHL last year after three solid years in college. Over eight games with the Henderson Silver Knights at the end of last year, Saville managed a 2.05 G.A.A. and 0.929 SV%. Presumably, Henderson's crease will belong to Saville this year, and if he can build on that early success while those ahead of him stumble, he could be a candidate to be suddenly thrust into the spotlight at some point in 2022-23—at which point you can assume someone will come knocking to acquire him.

Dryden McKay (TOR)

McKay made headlines last year when he somehow took home the prestigious Hobey Baker Award as the best player in college hockey without winning the Mike Richter (Best Goalie), which went to Devon Levi. Go figure. McKay is an ideal candidate to stash-and-flip because, like Levi, he is likely 5+ years away from NHL action. You don't want to sit and wait on him but the Hobey Baker gives him a lustre that, combined with a hot start to the year, might just be enough to leverage a more certain asset away from a fellow manager.

Jack LaFontaine (TBL)

LaFontaine admittedly lost value when he was traded from Carolina to Tampa Bay last year, given the presence of Vasilevsky, but he won the Mike Richter award the year before Devon Levi after posting a 1.79 G.A.A. and 0.934 SV% over 29 games—school record-breaking ratios for the U of Minnesota. He bounced around between four leagues last year (NCAA, ECHL, AHL, and NHL) and then got traded, so this coming year in the AHL for the Syracuse Crunch should be more indicative of what he is capable of now that he has some stability again. Though his opportunity is limited, strong AHL numbers combined with his illustrious past might be enough to generate some interest in LaFontaine once the season gets underway.

Joel Blomqvist (PIT) & Taylor Gauthier (PIT)

The Penguins system is quite weak in goal after Tristan Jarry. Now that Pittsburgh GM Ron Hextall has locked down the team's core of Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel, Kris Letang, and Evgeni Malkin for at least a couple more years, the Penguins should be able to keep their competitive window open for at least a bit longer—which means interest could develop in Blomqvist or Gauthier without a lot of warning.

Blomqvist posted excellent numbers as a Liiga rookie last year (1.32 G.A.A. and 0.940 SV% over 20 games) and boasts a 0.99 G.A.A. and 0.955 SV% over his first three appearances so far in 2022-23. Given that this is already his second year as a pro, it is conceivable that he could come over to North America and receive some looks towards the end of this season.

Gauthier will make his first foray into AHL hockey this year with Wilkes Barre-Scranton, presumably with a decent shot at being their starter, after dominating the WHL last year with a 2.16 G.A.A. and 0.931 SV% over 28 games and following that up with an incredible playoff performance (11 games, 1.92 G.A.A. and 0.937 SV%).

Erik Portillo (BUF)

Portillo is the third member of Buffalo's stacked goalie prospect system along with UPL and Levi. He was very steady backstopping a loaded U of Michigan team last year (2.14 G.A.A. and 0.926 SV%) and will be back between the pipes for them again this year as they welcome offensive dynamos like Adam Fantilli (2023 eligible) and Frank Nazar (CHI). Because that Michigan squad gets so much coverage every year with all of their high-end players, Portillo is bound to receive more press than his peers playing in less visible markets. He has a long and uncertain path ahead of him to reach and star in the NHL but should generate enough hype in the short term to become juicy trade bait.

Mack Guzda (FLA)

Guzda is headed to the AHL for Florida's affiliate this year after toiling through four (and what should have been five) seasons in the OHL. He should be very much under the radar still, not only because he is firmly slotted in behind Sergei Bobrovsky and Spencer Knight but also because his OHL numbers were not impressive in the slightest until a midseason trade sent him to the Barrie Colts. Over his first three years in the OHL, Guzda's best season saw him post a 3.18 G.A.A. and 0.900 SV% over 50 games. The volume was there but the ratios didn't scream NHL material. After the trade to Barrie, however, Guzda settled down and turned in a 2.52 GAA and 0.915 SV%, including an excellent through brief playoff performance. If he can capitalize on that late-season success and thrive in the starter's role down in Springfield this year, Guzda will start turning heads before long.

Arvid Soderblom (CHI) & Felix Sandstrom (PHI)

I've lumped these two together because they both have a realistic shot at securing the backup roles this year for their respective teams. Although Chicago and Philly project to be bottom-dwellers this year, which will likely mean horrific numbers for whichever poor souls are chosen to guard their nets, the interesting part is that both teams are looking like clear contenders in the "shit the bed hard for Conor Bedard" sweepstakes. Whichever team lands one of the top three players in the 2023 draft in particular (Bedard, Michkov, Fantilli) will see a noticeable and immediate boost throughout the lineup—that is how good these guys are—which will also include the goalies, even if that doesn't happen right away. Even if their numbers stink in 2022-23, the press of one of the Big Three going to Soderblom or Sandstrom's team might be enough to give them meaningful trade value.

Honourable mention: Keith Petruzelli (TOR), Strauss Mann (SJS), Ivan Fedotov (PHI, currently imprisoned in Russia), Calle Clang (ANA), Jakob Skarek (NYI), Benjamin Gauthier (SJS), Keith Petruzelli (TOR).


Thanks for reading! Follow me on Twitter @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.

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