Eastern Edge: Forward Fantasy Tiers, From Matthews to Suter

Brennan Des

2022-09-27

This week, Grant Campbell and I organized the league's forwards into tiers based on projected fantasy value this season. Grant covers the Western Conference here at DobberHockey, and you can check out his forward tiers in the West over here. Below, you'll find my tiered ranking of forwards in the East. There's some subjectivity baked into these rankings, so think of them as a guide for your own thinking rather than a concrete list you need to follow. Tiers were created with multicategory leagues (goals, assists, power-play points, shots, hits, blocks) in mind. I couldn't provide a write-up for players in all tiers, so if you're wondering why a certain player is in one of the lower tiers, feel free to leave a comment below!

Tier 1

Auston Matthews (Toronto Maple Leafs) – Led the league in goal scoring last season, lighting the lamp 60 times over 73 games. Goals are rarer than assists, so the league's top goal scorer is understandably one of the most valuable assets in fantasy hockey. He's a high-volume shooter who benefits from playing with a star-studded supporting cast in Toronto. With Matthews, you can expect elite production in all situations.

Nikita Kucherov (Tampa Bay Lightning) – Has scored at or above a 100-point pace in each of the last four seasons. In that span, his 1.43 points per game is second to only Connor McDavid (1.59 points per game). He's a key part of an elite power play in Tampa Bay and emphasized his value when he racked up 30 points with the man advantage through 47 outings last year – leading the league in power play points per game.

Alex Ovechkin (Washington Capitals) – Last season, at the age of 36, Ovi put together one of his best campaigns in recent years, scoring at a 96-point pace. I've been projecting an age-related decline for years now and he just keeps getting better, so I refuse to bet against him anymore. He may be 37 years old, but he remains a top asset in multicategory leagues because of his consistently elite contributions in categories like goals, shots, hits, and power-play points.

Tier 2

Artemi Panarin (New York Rangers) – Having flirted with a 110-point pace in each of the last three seasons, there's an argument that Panarin is a tier-one forward. His high-end production on the power play only strengthens his case. Ultimately, I put him in tier two because he doesn't get as many goals as the guys in tier one, and as we've established, goals are harder to come by than assists. In addition, the tier-one guys also outperform him by a fair margin in shots, and modest margins in blocks and hits.

Mitch Marner (Toronto Maple Leafs) – I don't think Marner gets enough recognition for the consistently elite offense he's provided. He has now scored at or above a 90-point pace in four-straight seasons. Last season saw him score at a 40-goal, 110-point pace – which is a level of offense that very few players in the league are capable of. He's a prominent piece of Toronto's star-studded power-play and should provide strong numbers with the man advantage. Although he may be perceived as an undersized pass-first player, he averaged three shots per game last year and racked up a hit per game.

Steven Stamkos (Tampa Bay Lightning) – Tampa's captain posted 42 goals and 64 assists last season, totalling a whopping 106 points. Across the league, only five players outscored him in 2021-22. Stamkos can be relied upon for elite contributions in numerous categories, including goals, shots, power-play points. He's also able to average over a hit per game, which is more than you get from most elite offensive talents.  

Aleksander Barkov (Florida Panthers) – Quietly registered a 47-goal, 108-point pace last season. That career-best scoring pace was accomplished while primarily skating beside Carter Verhaeghe and Anthony Duclair/Maxim Mamin. Barkov has ascended into superstar status – helping those around him to produce more, rather than relying on others to boost his own point totals. I am a little concerned that Jonathan Huberdeau's departure will result in a slightly less productive power play in Florida, but Barkov's production with the man advantage should still be above league average. A 90-point pace seems like a safe projection for Barkov – not many players have such a high floor.  

Matthew Tkachuk (Florida Panthers) – Is coming off a career season that saw him tally 42 goals and 62 assists for 104 points. I'd expect some regression this season as he leaves behind Elias Lindholm and Johnny Gaudreau – two elite linemates with whom he had strong chemistry. Now Tkachuk will still be exposed to high-end talent in Florida, but it may take some time to get familiar with new surroundings and develop chemistry with new linemates. I expect he still scores at or above a point-per-game pace, while posting a good number of shots and power-play points. He hits more than most players with his level of offensive talent, which gives him extra value in multicategory leagues.

Sidney Crosby (Pittsburgh Penguins) – So far in his 15-year-career, Crosby's worst season (2015-2016) saw him score at an 87-point-pace. Today's world may be enamoured with younger, flashier players, but Crosby remains the epitome of consistency and reliability. His elite instincts and hockey IQ allow him to be one of the league's best players despite being in his mid-thirties. He has excellent chemistry with a strong supporting cast in Pittsburgh and should enjoy offensive success at both even strength and on the power play this year. 

Brady Tkachuk (Ottawa Senators) – Ottawa's captain broke out offensively last season, scoring at a 70-point pace. He doesn't have the same offensive ceiling as other players in this tier, but he has the potential to improve on last year's output if new additions Claude Giroux and Alex DeBrincat can help Ottawa's power play and overall offense. Tkachuk's value comes from his peripheral production as he frequently finds himself near the top of both shot and hit leaderboards. I'd bump him up a tier if your league tracks penalty minutes.

David Pastrnak (Boston Bruins) – A high-volume shooter and prolific goal-scorer who posts strong numbers with the man advantage. Over the past three seasons, only Auston Matthews (0.76), Alex Ovechkin (0.64), and Leon Draisaitl (0.62) have better goal per game rates than Pastrnak (0.57). Entering the final year of his contract, there's extra motivation to perform this season in order to land a lucrative new deal.

Tier 3

Sebastian Aho (Carolina Hurricanes) – Over the past four years, Aho has consistently scored at a point-per game pace. I think he's capable of another level, but I'm not sure if next season is the one where he achieves it. He's coming off a career-best 28 points with the man advantage, but Carolina's power-play will look different this year without Tony DeAngelo and Vincent Trocheck in the fold.

Jake Guentzel (Pittsburgh Penguins) – Over the past four seasons, Guentzel ranks in the top-10 for goals per game (0.49). He's established himself as someone that can be relied upon to score at or above a point-per-game pace while flirting with the 40-goal mark. The 27-year-old winger is a prominent piece of Pittsburgh's star-studded power-play and should post solid numbers with the man advantage for your fantasy roster. He's an underrated asset in multicategory leagues, providing high-end shot totals, with a modest helping of hits.

Andrei Svechnikov (Carolina Hurricanes) – Should flirt with the 75-point mark this year – as he's done twice in the past three seasons. Svechnikov posts solid numbers on the power play and he's one of a few players with elite offensive ability that can also put up a significant number of hits and penalty minutes.

Mika Zibanejad (New York Rangers) – I think he has the talent and supporting cast to be in tier two but based on the 73-point and 82-point pace he's posted in the last two seasons, I'm more comfortable putting him in tier three for now.

John Tavares (Toronto Maple Leafs) – Like a lot of players in this tier, Tavares should give you near-point per game production, supplemented by strong shot totals and solid power-play numbers.

Johnny Gaudreau (Columbus Blue Jackets) – Fresh off a career-best 115-point season, it's probably surprising that Gaudreau isn't in a higher tier. A lot of what I said about Matthew Tkachuk also applies to Gaudreau, in that I expect some regression this season because he's no longer playing on an elite line with elite chemistry. I put Tkachuk in higher tier because he has the edge in peripheral production.

Sam Reinhart (Florida Panthers) – After years of scoring at a 50 to 60-point pace in Buffalo, Reinhart broke out with 82 points in 78 games for the Panthers last year. 31 of those points came with the man advantage. Now, I'm wary that Florida's power play will be slightly less effective without Huberdeau in the mix, which may lead to a small drop in power-play production for Reinhart. However, I think Reinhart will see a larger role at even strength this year because the Panthers lost some of their forward depth during the offseason. More even-strength opportunity should lead to more production, helping to offset any decline in power-play output. Ultimately, I think he scores around a point-per-game pace again.

Chris Kreider (New York Rangers) – Based on his performance last year, you could say that Kreider belongs in tier two. He posted elite totals in a wide variety of categories, including goals (52), points (78), shots (258), power-play points (35) and hits (141). I opted to put him in tier three because I think he takes a step back offensively this year, but his multicategory coverage still makes him a strong fantasy asset.

Patrik Laine (Columbus Blue Jackets) – Scored at a point-per game pace last year and should enjoy more offensive success this season as he'll get to play with superstar Johnny Gaudreau. His goal-scoring prowess makes an incredibly valuable resource in fantasy leagues, where goals are like gold.  

Jack Hughes (New Jersey Devils) – His fantasy value is hard to gauge because we know the potential is there, and we saw him live up to that potential when he scored at a 94-point pace last season – but he only appeared in 49 games. He has a high offensive ceiling, and his shot totals and power-play production should make up for a lack of hits and blocks. However, he doesn't have the track record of excellence that most players in tier two have, so I thought tier three was more suitable for him right now.

Brayden Point (Tampa Bay Lightning) – Has the talent to be a point-per-game player but he has now paced for just 70 points in back-to-back seasons. Based on his recent production, and the fact that his offseason training was affected by a significant tear in his quadricep, I think there's an argument for placing him in tier four. However, I decided to put him in tier three because his offensive ceiling is really high and he can be relied upon for strong production with the man advantage, given his prominent role on Tampa's top unit.

Alex DeBrincat (Ottawa Senators) – Proved himself as an elite goal scorer in Chicago but he'll no longer have the luxury of playing with superstar Patrick Kane. Now, DeBrincat didn't play with Kane at even strength too much during the 2018-2019 campaign and still managed 41 goals, so I think we know him to be a strong player in his own right. It'll be interesting to see how he builds chemistry with his new teammates in Ottawa.

William Nylander (Toronto Maple Leafs) – The Leafs forward is coming off a career-best season that saw him post 34 goals and 46 assists for 80 points in 81 games. What he lacks in the hits and blocks department, he can make up for in shot totals and power-play points.

Mathew Barzal (New York Islanders) – Call me crazy, but I think a little more offensive freedom under a new coach this year will help Barzal score around a point-per-game pace.

Tier 4

This tier features a lot of players who should flirt with the 65 to 70-point mark but may not provide enough production in peripheral categories to be ranked in a higher tier.

Brad Marchand (Boston Bruins)

Evgeni Malkin (Pittsburgh Penguins)

Patrice Bergeron (Boston Bruins)

Dylan Larkin (Detroit Red Wings)

Jesper Bratt (New Jersey Devils)

Evgeny Kuznetsov (Washington Capitals)

Nick Suzuki (Montreal Canadiens)

Bryan Rust (Pittsburgh Penguins)

Tim Stutzle (Ottawa Senators)

Lucas Raymond (Detroit Red Wings)

Drake Batherson (Ottawa Senators)

Cole Caufield (Montreal Canadiens)

Josh Norris (Ottawa Senators)

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Tage Thompson (Buffalo Sabres)

Vincent Trocheck (New York Rangers)

Teuvo Teravainen (Carolina Hurricanes)

Claude Giroux (Ottawa Senators)

Nico Hischier (New Jersey Devils)

Tier 5

Jack Roslovic (Columbus Blue Jackets)

Michael Bunting (Toronto Maple Leafs)

Tyler Bertuzzi (Detroit Red Wings)

Jakub Voracek (Columbus Blue Jackets)

David Perron (Detroit Red Wings)

Carter Verhaeghe (Florida Panthers)

Travis Konecny (Philadelphia Flyers)

Sam Bennett (Florida Panthers)

Taylor Hall (Boston Bruins)

Brock Nelson (New York Islanders)

Boone Jenner (Columbus Blue Jackets)

Alex Tuch (Buffalo Sabres)

Jeff Skinner (Buffalo Sabres)

Victor Olofsson (Buffalo Sabres)

Jakub Vrana (Detroit Red Wings)

Anton Lundell (Florida Panthers)

Seth Jarvis (Carolina Hurricanes)

Alexis Lafreniere (New York Rangers)

Martin Necas (Carolina Hurricanes)

Ondrej Palat (New Jersey Devils)

Cam Atkinson (Philadelphia Flyers)

Brendan Gallagher (Montreal Canadiens)

Jonathan Drouin (Montreal Canadiens)

Christian Dvorak (Montreal Canadiens)

David Krejci (Boston Bruins)

Jake DeBrusk (Boston Bruins)

Yegor Sharangovich (New Jersey Devils)

Gustav Nyquist (Columbus Blue Jackets)

Tier 6

This tier includes some forwards closer to the average in most categories and some younger players on the rise. I’ve highlighted the risers.

Alex Kerfoot, T.J. Oshie, Alex Killorn, Dylan Strome, Cole Sillinger, Rickard Rakell, Anders Lee, Andrew Copp, Brandon Hagel, James van Riemsdyk, Dawson Mercer, Kirby Dach, Mike Hoffman, Jack Quinn, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Josh Anderson, Dominik Kubalik, Kevin Hayes, Anthony Mantha, Alexander Holtz, Charlie Coyle, Garnet Hathaway, Anthony Beauvillier, Josh Bailey, Tom Wilson (inj.), Pavel Zacha, Peyton Krebs, Casey Mittelstadt, Dylan Cozens, Paul Stastny, Kasperi Kapanen, Alex Kerfoot, Oliver Wahlstrom, Kent Johnson, Rudolfs Balcers, Nick Paul, Conor Sheary

Tier 7

This tier includes some forwards that may be on the fringe of fantasy relevance this season. It also features a couple of big-name forwards slated to miss a significant chunk of the campaign.

Sean Couturier (inj.), Max Pacioretty (inj.), Anthony Duclair (inj.), Anthony Cirelli (inj.), Kaapo Kakko, Evgenii Dadonov, Craig Smith, Kyle Palmieri, Tomas Tatar, Erik Haula, Patric Hornqvist, Jordan Staal, Ross Colton, Owen Tippett, Kyle Okposo, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Jeff Carter, Nick Robertson, Pierre Engvall, Denis Malgin, Filip Zadina, Scott Laughton, Mathieu Joseph, Filip Chytil, Pius Suter, Danton Heinen

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