Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean and Michael Amato (filling in this week for Dobber)

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First, if you haven’t done so already, pick up the 17th annual Fantasy Hockey Guide here! Fully updated, includes the draft list spreadsheet.

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1. According to Sam Carchidi of PHI Hockey Now, Carter Hart says he’ll be ready for the Flyers’ opening-night game on October 13. Hart has been taking shots at practice, but he has still not been cleared for contact drills. Hart’s injury has not been stated, although it’s worth mentioning that he was shut down with just under a month to go last season because of a lower-body injury.

Hart’s ADP in Yahoo leagues is just under 170, although fantasy teams seem confident enough in him that he is being drafted in 96% of Yahoo leagues. In Fantrax, Hart has a 177 ADP while being drafted in 86% of leagues. Hart is still only 24 years of age, so there’s still time for him to rebound to some degree (positive GSAA over his first two seasons, negative GSAA over his last two seasons). However, the current state of the Flyers means that those drafting Hart should limit their expectations.

At one time, Hart was the most sought-after goalie in keeper leagues, but that is no longer the case with him sitting at 20^th in the Keeper League Goalie Rankings. To research goalie development further, I looked up goalies from his draft year and discovered that no goalie drafted during his draft year of 2016 has come close to playing as many games as Hart (146 GP), nor is ranked higher in the goalie rankings. From the 2017 draft, Jeremy Swayman and Jake Oettinger have moved ahead of Hart in the rankings, although both have played fewer NHL games. No one notable (at least so far) was drafted in 2018. Spencer Knight, who has also pulled ahead of Hart in the rankings, was drafted in 2019.

I’ll leave it there based on how long it takes for goalie to develop, but I’ll draw three conclusions from this draft information: 1) Hart was rushed to the NHL (he was just 20 when he made his NHL debut), 2) There’s still time for him to get his career back on track, and 3) Getting to elite status will be a tall order for Hart. (oct1)

2. Between searches on Frozen Tools and season preview articles I’ve read, it appears that Seth Jarvis is one of the most popular sleeper picks in fantasy leagues. Jarvis’s average ADP between Yahoo and Fantrax is around 170, which seems relatively low. That being said, the fact that he’s roughly 90% rostered in both formats suggests that someone in most leagues is on to the idea of taking a flier on him.

Jarvis finished the 2021-22 season in the top 10 in rookie scoring with 40 points in 68 games. That’s not a standout number compared to say, Trevor Zegras, Michael Bunting, or another name that I’ll list shortly. Yet because of the injury to Max Pacioretty, Jarvis is considered a strong candidate to receive top-line duty and first-unit power-play minutes. Should that happen, the Jarvis pick should really pay off.

~ For more on Jarvis, listen to the Five Hole Fantasy Podcast that I appeared on earlier this week. Jarvis is discussed at about the 7:30 mark. ~

Because they are listed 1-2 in the Frozen Tools Top Searches and because they are both rookies, I’ll compare Jarvis to Matt Boldy. It’s a simple comparison, because both have played only one season. [Compare Players: Boldy/Jarvis]

Boldy was definitely the stronger of the two players in their rookie seasons. I wanted to check this to find out if Boldy justifies his 111 ADP in Yahoo. The two sophomores-to-be are a little closer in Fantrax ADP, with Boldy being drafted at 145 there. Obviously you’re taking Boldy ahead of Jarvis in a single-season draft, but the Yahoo ADP for Boldy seems a little high. That may be why I haven’t really targeted Boldy in any of my mock drafts. If Boldy is more of a Line 2/PP2 option for the Wild while Jarvis is Line 1/PP1 on the Canes, then Jarvis has the potential to surpass Boldy. (oct1)

3. Rasmus Sandin and the Leafs have finally agreed on a contract, a two-year deal with a $1.4 million cap hit. Injuries on defense may have expedited the signing (more on that in a bit). In the end, Sandin has signed a contract with the same cap hit and term as fellow young d-man Timothy Liljegren. Since Liljegren is expected to be out until November after hernia surgery, Sandin shouldn’t have an issue staying in the lineup on a nightly basis, at least to start. Sandin and Mark Giordano are both projected in the Fantasy Guide to play on the Leafs’ second power-play unit. (sep30)

4. Also related to the Leafs and as seen on the new Dobber newsfeed, John Tavares will miss the start of the season with an oblique strain. Tavares is expected to be sidelined a minimum of three weeks from now, which should force him to miss at least the first week of the regular season. According to Sheldon Keefe, either Alexander Kerfoot or Calle Jarnkrok could fill in on the second line while Tavares is sidelined, which could provide either with a short-term boost in value.

By the way, Jarnkrok and Kerfoot actually took shifts on defense in Wednesday’s preseason game with Jordie Benn and Carl Dahlstrom both forced to leave the game with injuries. The regular season hasn’t started and the injuries are starting to pile up already in Toronto. So much so that the Leafs are considering using Mitch Marner as a defenseman. Huh? Maybe Sheldon Keefe is envisioning a Quinn Hughes-type of rover on the blueline. That would be quite the positional eligibility shift if that were to happen. Marner’s fantasy value would go through the roof if he became D-eligible. (sep30)

5. Not long after the Cap League Goalie Rankings were released this past week, the Panthers and Spencer Knight agreed to a three-year contract extension with an AAV of $4.5 million. Do the math and that’s nearly $15 million committed to goalies alone starting next season. That is, unless the Panthers are going to try hard to move Sergei Bobrovsky at some point. Yet with Stanley Cup aspirations, Florida may not be quite ready to trust the now-21-year-old with the bulk of the goaltending, as highly pedigreed a prospect as he is. Although it perhaps seems like longer, Goalie Bob has four years left on his $10 million AAV contract. (sep30)

6. With drafts taking place and keeper decisions being made, this time of season is as brisk as any for fantasy leagues. So I thought I’d take the time to provide some general guidance on some frequently asked questions, in particular with some of the resources you might find helpful.

Q: I’m in a keeper league and I need to choose between (list of players).

Go to our Rankings page, where you’ll find the Top 300 Keeper League Skaters (for points-only leagues) or Top 100 Roto Rankings (for single-season leagues). Heck, you’ll even find Salary Cap League Rankings. If something doesn’t seem right with the rankings, tell us and explain why. It often makes good debate for the Ramblings. I compile the Roto Rankings and am always looking for feedback. As far as other rankings, if you’re asking for my opinion, I will quite often – but not always – have a similar opinion to what’s already in the rankings. (sep30)

7. Q: My league counts the following categories: (list of categories). Does the Dobber Fantasy Guide forecast all of these categories?

The Dobber Fantasy Guide forecasts some, but not all, fantasy categories. If you’d like rankings for very specific categories, the Fantasy Hockey Geek Draft Kit is the way to go. Purchase both at Dobber Sports and get a coupon code for a discount. (sep30)

8. Q: Where can I find a breakdown of the schedule for a certain week or month?

Go to the Schedule Planner at Frozen Tools and set a particular date range. Frozen Tools has a ton of useful data, but the Schedule Planner ranks at or near the top in terms of go-to reports there.

Where can I get information on off days (non-busy days) and back-to-backs?

Purchase a Fantasy Guide, then go to the “Understanding the 2022-23 Schedule” article written by Andrew Santillo, our Looking Ahead author. (sep30)

9. As mentioned above, now is ramping-it-up time for the NHL fantasy season. What that means differs from person to person. Maybe it means you’re re-ranking your top-500 draft options for the 4,762^nd time, or maybe it means you’re printing off last year’s top-30 skaters so you can circle some names with your HP#2 and that’s the extent of your research.

Regardless of how you approach things, there’s a regular checklist of things to do before the season begins in just over a week. In order for you not to forget anything, let’s run through all of that by following the link…

For me, I think the biggest thing at the moment is making sure I don’t overreact to training camp line combinations. For example, I have one cap league where I was going to have to move one of Conor Sheary, Antti Raanta, or Tyson Jost (replacing the player with Cal Foote from my farm) in order to fit under our salary cap. I probably could have waited for a better deal to come in, but I saw Sheary down on line four on the first day of camp, and immediately jumped on the first real offer I got for him. Every day since I made the trade, he has been skating back up on line two. At least it’s not something that is going to make or break my year, but it’s annoying to have fallen into the same trap again this year.

Stay sharp, friends, and I know we’re getting close, but be patient while we wait for NHL hockey to return. (sep28)

10. One player who seems to be getting early fantasy hype is Zach Werenski, and for good reason. He has averaged 54 points/82 games over the last three years and is coming into his age-25 season. Columbus added Johnny Gaudreau, Boone Jenner is healthy, Patrik Laine returned to form, youngsters Kent Johnson and Yegor Chinakhov (maybe even Kirill Marchenko) should be impactful offensively, and Werenski is the unquestioned number-1 backing all of them up. With his ADP consistently outside the top-12 defensemen, he’s one of very few options in that range that should skate 25+ minutes a night with top PP time. My projections have him as the 12^th in blue liner value with this scoring system.

The big question is the power play. The Jackets were 25^th in goals per 60 minutes on the PP in 2021-22 and Werenski’s 82-game PPP pace was for 17 points. That isn’t good enough for a guy we hope can crack the 60-point mark. Having Gaudreau and Laine should help this team improve with the man advantage and being able to rack up 25+ PPPs is certainly possible. But “should” and “possible” doesn’t mean “will” and that is the remaining piece to Werenski’s fantasy puzzle. His lack of physicality (90 hits in his last 166 games) means he has to be a heavy point producer to finish top-12 among fantasy blue liners. The power play will dictate that and there’s just no telling which way that cookie will crumble. He’s risky but the upside is there, even in leagues counting hits. (sep29)

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11. Whether to draft Evan Bouchard or Tyson Barrie is a question a lot of fantasy owners are struggling with. Whichever of the two runs the top PP unit for the majority of the season will have a lot of fantasy value, with the other less so. I lean Bouchard if only because his peripherals will be much stronger, but the debate is there.

I would offer, instead, to just draft Darnell Nurse. He has averaged 46 points/82 games over the last two seasons and his monster minutes guarantee huge peripheral numbers. Without injuries, he won’t get the valuable PP minutes and that always is a negative, but he’s one of very few guys who could post 200 shots, 150 blocks, and 200 hits, to go with 40-plus points.

With that said, he’s still coming in as my 20^th defenseman projected, which outstrips his ADP in most spots. The complete lack of PPPs is an issue and though he scores goals, his lack of assists means his assist value is the second-lowest of any of my top-20 defensemen (Alex Pietrangelo is slightly lower). Being a drag in PPPs and just above water in assists means he’s not really helping in one-third of fantasy categories. Beware of falling in love with the peripherals. (sep29)

12. Sean Durzi‘s case is one of fortune, in a sense. Los Angeles’s blue line went through a lot of injuries last year and that pushed him to the top PP unit for an extended period, including heavy TOI. He was playing over 22 minutes a game over the final two months of the season compared to 17:28 over his first 36 games. His shots and points per game all increased with the TOI and that is what is drawing fantasy owners to him this year.

However, Los Angeles seems healthy. Sean Walker is in training camp having missed almost all of 2021-22, Matt Roy is in the mix again, Drew Doughty is back in full force, with Brandt Clarke one of the top blue line prospects in camp as well. Add in Mikey Anderson and Alex Edler, and Durzi could well see himself back to bottom-pair minutes unless (until?) injuries hit hard again.

My projections assume some PP1 time for Durzi this year which is what’s floating his value to roughly a top-50 defenseman. With that assumption comes the obvious issue: if he doesn’t get any meaningful PP1 minutes, he’s basically replacement-level, which means outside the top-70 defensemen. Where to draft Durzi basically comes down to whether you think he can get 20-30 games’ worth of PP1 time. (sep29)

13. Having missed most of the Cup run due to injury, fantasy owners could be forgiven for overlooking Samuel Girard. He has still played to a 42-point/82-game pace over the last three years and is going into his age-24 season. The best is yet to come for a guy who showed a lot of playmaking/transition prowess early in his career. My projections have him as my 54^th defenseman at the moment, or very draftable in 12-team leagues.

Of course, we wouldn’t bring him up if there weren’t some problems here. He’s a long way away from ever getting PP1 time so that immediately caps his upside. I do have players ranked around him that could see PP1 time with nothing more than underperformance from a teammate (Mike Matheson and Jamie Drysdale, for instance). Girard likely needs at least two key injuries for that to happen and that hurts him a lot.

What also hurts are his lack of peripherals. Despite skating nearly 22 minutes a game these last three years, he’s averaged just 0.77 hits and 1.36 shots per game. Pacing for around 63 hits and 111 shots for a non-PP defenseman isn’t much.

There is also Bowen Byram. With Girard injured in the postseason, Byram really stepped up and flat-out controlled some games. He looked like the guy that went 4^th overall in the 2019 Draft and it’s not impossible that Byram eventually overtakes him on the depth chart. Forget PP1 minutes; by January, Girard might not even get PP2 minutes. Even on an elite team, there are only so many even strength goals to go around. He is being properly valued but I’d rather swing on someone with more upside. (sep29)

14. As the resident Montreal fan, it pains me to say just how bad their blue line looks to be. It is another rebuilding year (despite what Joel Edmundson says) and that means nothing is locked in place. Both the coaching staff and management will want to see different players in different roles, particularly in the second half once the team is firmly out of the playoff race. My initial assumption is that Chris Wideman gets the crack at the top PP unit for the Habs but I don’t expect that to last, with Mike Matheson eventually taking over.

Projecting Matheson is unlike projecting a lot of defensemen. He has 49 career goals against 138 career points, which is a very high goals/points ratio for a blue liner (0.36). For reference, Victor Hedman has eight double-digit goal seasons in his last nine years (would be 9-for-9 if not for the shortened 2021 COVID campaign) and his goals/points ratio is 0.23. With a top power-play role (hopefully) coming, and much more ice time per game than he’s had in his last three seasons, I have Matheson reaching the 40-point plateau for the first time ever, ranking just outside my top-50 defensemen. The rise in TOI also brings him to triple-digit hits and blocks, providing a well-rounded multi-cat option.

It is easy to see Matheson not reaching these heights. His career-high is 31 points, achieved last year, and Montreal is likely a bottom-5 team that has had a bad power play for a while now. But he’s going virtually undrafted in all but the deepest leagues and he can be valuable across the board. (sep27)

15. Tampa Bay’s line combinations – with Anthony Cirelli injured – had them stack the top line in camp. Whether it lasts, we’ll see, but my hope had been that Ross Colton could jump into a top-6 role for this team. With his potential for 20 goals, 50 points, two hits per game, and multi-position eligibility, Colton was a favourite of mine all offseason. The problem would be if they see him more in a third line scoring role than a top-6 role; we want him with Brayden Point or Steven Stamkos, not Vladislav Namestnikov. We’ll continue keeping an eye on training camp because it’s a difference between 35-point and 50-point potential, which means either waiver wire fodder or late-round pick. (sep27)

16. The addition of John Klingberg hurts a lot here. The former Stars blue liner should eat all the top PP time as long as he’s healthy, and that shaved 10 points from Jamie Drysdale‘s projection. That affects multiple categories and drops him from potential bench defenseman in 12-team leagues to the waiver wire. Even if he hits 40 points, weak peripherals are an issue in multi-cat formats. His time will come eventually, but don’t expect a huge leap in fantasy value in 2022-23. (sep27)

17. Carter Verhaeghe has been lining up with Aleksander Barkov in the preseason, as expected. The big question is whether he can lock up a top power-play role with all the new roles/faces in Florida. I have him cracking the 60-point mark based on what he’s done the last couple years alongside Barkov, but the power play could unlock a whole other level of value. Not only would it help him flirt with the 80-point mark but could get him close to the 200-shot mark, which is similarly important. He’s not a great peripherals guy and needs production to make up the difference. How the power play shakes out will determine whether his ADP is justified or undervalued. (sep27)

18. We got word that Gabriel Landeskog will miss the start of the season. Evan Rodrigues was already a potential top-6 candidate, but if Landeskog is out of the lineup, the former Penguin should have a second-line role at the very least until Avalanche captain returns. For that reason, I have him basically repeating his performance from 2021-22, with 18 goals and 41 points as his projection.

Things could go very right for him, though. He shot under 8% last year and even a modest increase could get him to 25 goals. He will be playing on a team with the best puck-moving blue line in hockey and that should help his scoring chance generation. But even an optimistic projection has him around 25 goals and 50 points, which isn’t anything special in medium-sized fantasy leagues, but good peripherals could help a lot. He might not be a bad option to draft at the end of a draft and make use of him until Landeskog returns. (sep27)

19. After the trade to Seattle, my hope was to see Oliver Bjorkstrand skating alongside Matty Beniers. The young Seattle center impressed me at the end of the 2021-22 season and he’s a prospect I’ve been very high on for a couple years. They’ve been skating together in the preseason and I think it’s a great position for both of them. We should remember that Bjorkstrand played significant minutes with a few different centers last year and having one consistent option for him would be nice to see. His ADP is anywhere from the 12^th to 14^th round and I have him valued at about the same. If he can be a power play monster, he could wind up a top-100 player, but that’s asking a lot for a team that’s still growing. I have no issues with where he’s being drafted, though. (sep27)

20. Connor Brown in Washington may benefit from Tom Wilson’s absence to the tune of a spot with Alex Ovechkin and Evgeny Kuznetsov. Brown’s goal totals took a bit of step back last season, but he should have little trouble being a 20-25 goal scorer if he plays on that line for a significant portion of the campaign. Target Brown on your waiver wire in the early part of the year if he gets off to a hot start. (sep26)

21. Over on the defensive side of things, Alexander Romanov is starting camp paired with Noah Dobson, which is great for his value. Romanov ranked in the top 20 in both hits and blocks a season ago, but his point production is lacking. He had just 13 in 2021-22, so hopefully Romanov can take advantage of this opportunity to get himself up in the 25-30 point range. That would make him very valuable in multi-cat leagues. (sep26)

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