Lining Up: Kessel, Burakovsky, Stützle, and Holloway’s Lineup Slotting
Peter Ryell
2022-10-05
Hello and welcome back to Lining Up! Here to kick off the regular season, this iteration will look at some way too early lineup combinations seen through the preseason to help provide some late round targets in any last-minute drafts. Alternatively, if you have already completed your draft, consider adding these names to watch your list as they will be players to watch as the regular season nears kickoff.
Let's dive in.
One name to keep an eye on early is Phil Kessel. He made the move from desert to another and potentially will improve is situation, especially if early indications remain true into the regular season. In two preseason games so far, he has spent over 80% of his time playing on a line with Jack Eichel. A small sample size to be sure but if this persists, he will have value here given that Kessel was barely worth rostering in most leagues while in Arizona.
During his three seasons in Arizona, Kessel averaged 44 points, 2.1 shots per game, 03:08 of PPTOI and a 59.6 %PP. Compared to his four years in Pittsburgh where he averaged 76 points, 3.0 shots per game, 03:31 PPTOI and a 70.3 %PP. He may be 34 this season but it is reasonable to assume that the large point disparity between his time on each team can be attributed to line mates and partially to his role on the power-play. If he were to maintain the level of deployment that he had with Arizona but continue playing with Eichel, Kessel would be in a good position to surpass his previous three-year average on Arizona. In addition, Kessel should see a natural bump in production simply by moving from a bottom five to a top fifteen team in GF.
Keep an eye on his linemates and consider Kessel as a late round gamble in your drafts.
Through his first three games of exhibition, it appears as though Tim Stützle has hit the jackpot by lining up alongside Claude Giroux and Alex Debrincat. With the influx of talent, it was expected that Stützle would see his situation improve from playing with Alex Formenton and Connor Brown most of last year, but this is a best case scenario for the regular season. Continued deployment like this should allow him to build on the 31 even-strength points he previously posted. Stützle was also no slouch in the peripherals department, adding 2.2 shots and 1.6 hits per game, so that should continue here. His plus/minus should also improve from the -27, as a line combination including Giroux and Debrincat will no doubt bring that up.
There is a question of how quickly he can build chemistry with two new line mates and what his power-play deployment will look like when the regular season begins. Let us not forget that with the arrival of Giroux and Debrincat, two forwards will be on the outside looking in on that coveted top power-play role. If it does indeed end up being Stützle, the 27 power-play points he hit last season will be much harder to come by as well as the 03:15 of PPTOI. Lining up beside a superstar forward and an elite forward will be necessary to help offset that loss and keep his overall TOI closer to his 18:25 last season. Regardless, Stützle should be able to maintain or increase his point pace from last season with this deployment.
For those paying attention, if this line combination is being used, then this should also indicate that the trio of Brady Tkachuk, Josh Norris and Drake Batherson will remain intact. They posted 28 GF and only 18 GA together last season in limited action due to injuries. Another year of growth individually and as a unit will only continue yield positive results. Assuming that they are healthy and that Batherson is cleared of wrongdoing with the ongoing investigations, expect this line to stay together and produce.
During his three seasons with Colorado, Burakovsky averaged a 65-point pace with 15:44 of TOI and 02:12 of that being on the power-play. His most frequent linemate last season was Nazem Kadri and a rotation of wingers while also seeing a significant amount of time with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen.
Moving from a top three team to a bottom three team in terms of scoring may not be ideal but so far in three preseason games, Burakovsky has been spending just over 50% of his time playing alongside future superstar Matthew Beniers. Along with playing beside who will quickly become the top centre on the team, Burakovsky should see a significant bump in ice time to go along with the deployment. This includes a boost on the power-play which will help to offset the move from Colorado. Lining up beside Beniers will be crucial to his continued success so keep an eye on how he is used and be sure to target Burakovsky in your late rounds. Many managers will likely be sleeping on Seattle given last year's results but remember that the roster has since been injected with an influx of talent.
Dylan Holloway
Lastly, a quick mention of Dylan Holloway. Arguably the Oilers' top prospect, Holloway has been spotted lining up alongside Zach Hyman and stud forward Leon Draisaitl. For what it's worth as well, Holloway produced four points in most recent preseason game as well. Not that you can expect that kind of production but Holloway is the kind of skilled and physical forward the Oilers covet and should he make his way onto a line with Draisaitl during the regular season, he could be in for a solid rookie debut along with decent peripheral contributions. Keep an eye out.
Thanks for reading.