Welcome back to The Journey, where we follow hockey prospects and their paths to the NHL, providing fantasy predictions and analysis along the way.  Before getting to some deep sleepers for 2022-23, you know I have to start with this:

TOLVANEN TIME

Almost 2.5 hits per game last night with barely 13 mins TOI. Hits his BT in 77 games. Multi cat beast potential. https://t.co/zhSnQvSLoi

— Ben Gehrels (@beegare) October 7, 2022

Eeli Tolvanen has been a mainstay on The Journey over the past couple years, so I would be delighted for him to finally make some noise at some point. He is facing an uphill battle for playing time again on a loaded Predators squad, but his shot is an absolute weapon. Plus, he brings excellent value in multicat formats, dishing out 2.5 hits and a couple shots per game last year playing just over 13 minutes a night.

If he can earn some PP time and get back to a mid-40s pace this year, he will hit his Breakout Threshold near the conclusion of 2022-23 and be ready to enter 50- or 60-point territory the following season. I have enjoyed grabbing him as a late-round upside play.

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Nick Robertson (TOR), another smaller player known for his elite shot and unflagging work ethic, has been absolutely ripping up the preseason for the Leafs. This is a player determined to stick in the NHL. Look at the hustle!

Put together some clips of great plays that Nick Robertson made last night pic.twitter.com/8YN4Kh3K5t

— Rink Rat Report (@RinkRatReport) October 4, 2022

His release has a similar fluid pop to Tolvanen's:

Holmberg provides the screen and Nick Robertson rips one post and in pic.twitter.com/Yd9rKrUsHc

— Rink Rat Report (@RinkRatReport) September 30, 2022

Auston Matthews, asked if he's ever given pointers to Nick Robertson on his shot: "I can't really teach him anything because I think he shoots it harder than anyone on the team."

— David Alter (@dalter) October 3, 2022

Robertson picked up a Band-Aid Boy label over the past few years that led to many poolies forgetting his former blue-chip stats. But as I wrote back in January, "the guy broke his leg and caught Covid. It’s not like he has a concerning string of wear-and-tear type injuries or a lengthy concussion history. Both these setbacks are merely that – he should be able to come back 100% and pick up where he left off. Just to remind you where that was, he scored 55 goals and 86 points in only 46 OHL games a couple years ago in his Draft +1 year, then turned pro and took three shots per game to put up 16 points in 21 games as an AHL rookie with the Marlies."

He's the real deal and it sure looks like he'll be arriving next week for good.

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With two preseason goals, Daniel Sprong has once again put the "post" in post-post-post-hype sleeper. To be honest, I'm kind of sick of hearing about this guy because he never seems to get any real NHL traction. He got his first taste of the majors with Pittsburgh seven years ago in 2015. Since then, he has managed to accumulate 202 games with the Penguins, Ducks, Capitals, and currently Kraken. So, hurray—the 25-year-old has finally reached his 200-game Breakout Threshold!

At first glance, the Kraken might seem like a good fit for him given the relative weakness of their roster as a fresh expansion team, but Seattle is actually quite strong on the wings. Competing with Sprong for time alongside pivots Matty Beniers, Shane Wright, and Alex Wennberg are Oliver Bjorkstrand, Andre Burakovsky, Yanni Gourde, Jordan Eberle, Jaden Schwartz, Jared McCann, Brandon Tanev, and Joonas Donskoi—four lines' worth of established NHL forwards.

During their final preseason bout last night, Seattle played Sprong on the fourth line alongside Morgan Geekie and Brandon Tanev. More encouraging: they also brought him out as part of their top power-play unit with Bjorkstrand, Wennberg, Beniers, and Justin Schultz. That group wasn't particularly successful on this outing, and there is of course no guarantee that Sprong will stay there (in fact he likely will not), but it does indicate that the Seattle coaches are curious if there's a fit there.

He is the kind of deceptive skill player who thrives with the extra time and space afforded by a man advantage, so it is intriguing to see the Kraken exploring how to best utilize him. He has excellent speed and loves to snipe through screens from the top of the circle. Perhaps an apt player comparison would be Jakub Vrana, another high upside prospect seemingly fumbled by Washington. He accumulated a reel of slick goals and plays just last year alone.

#SEAKRAKEN Daniel Sprong 2nd goal with the Kraken, in his second game, miss him :( pic.twitter.com/976OfXHJXL

— Capitals Replays (@capsreplays) March 27, 2022

Daniel Sprong darted down the ice to score ⚡️🥶 pic.twitter.com/A5PX6EJrsX

— ESPN+ (@ESPNPlus) October 22, 2021

Daniel Sprong did it all by himself 😤 @Capitals pic.twitter.com/NGpkdlKpUw

— ESPN (@espn) February 2, 2022

There are a few certified Band-Aid Boys on that list of the wingers ahead of Sprong (ie. Schwartz, Gourde). If he can hang onto some PP time, even on the second unit, and kick around in Seattle's middle six, Sprong could make a decent sleeper in deeper formats. A 25% boost on his career high scoring pace of 39 points would get him up to about 50 points on the year. That pace on top of 2.5+ shots a game plus some PP production and a few hits could work out to a decent play in fantasy.

Lots of ifs here though.

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Albert Johansson, profiled here back in January, has been turning heads during the Red Wings' preseason with his complete, surprisingly dynamic game. He flew into camp relatively under the radar compared to fellow prospect Simon Edvinsson. But while Edvinsson carried his shaky play at the World Juniors (hampered by an undisclosed injury/illness) into a fine-but-not-remarkable camp, Johansson consistently impressed observers with his steady, NHL-ready game.

Starting to think AJ may actually make the team over Edvinsson 👀

— Beer League Chump (@YzermanSZN) October 5, 2022

The Wings have their first regular season game next week on Thursday (October 14) against Montreal, so final roster cuts will be announced in the next few days. It will be interesting to keep tabs on the status of both Johnasson and Edvinsson.

Well, if they're "Big Elmer" and "Big Simon," "Little Albert" Johansson has impressed me as well. Very mature game.

— George Malik (@georgemalik) October 6, 2022

"Little Albert" is still not nearly as well-known in fantasy circles as either Edvinsson or Seider, so here is a little refresher beginning with his sparkling trajectory:

Good chance Albert Johansson makes the NHL right away. One of Detroit's best prospects. Perfect production growth since he was drafted. https://t.co/XjPkVIBYUq pic.twitter.com/AyY3wXxDx3

— Byron Bader (@ByronMBader) May 13, 2022

Two years ago in the SHL, he turned in the fifth-highest scoring rate for a U20 defenceman in league history. Two of the four names above him were Seider and recent Dallas acquisition Nils Lundkvist. Other than them, only Tim Erixon and Gustav Forsling (FLA) scored at a higher rate than Johansson before turning twenty.

I forgot to tweet this one the other day but this is mildly funny

In the last 6 years,the two highest scoring seasons at even strength by SHL D-men are both this year…by Moritz Seider and Albert Johansson pic.twitter.com/epdWn18w73

— Prashanth Iyer (@iyer_prashanth) March 9, 2021

Johansson shows excellent poise and lack of panic with the puck under pressure. This clip is from preseason action last month against the Blue Jackets prospect team. He is number 20 in white.

Some nice bit of puck control by Albert Johansson #LGRW pic.twitter.com/wLHP6x8tyY

— IcehockeyGifs (@IcehockeyG) September 16, 2022

Johannson (6-0, 168 lbs) is built more like Lundkvist than Seider but has shown the ability to play physically when the opportunity presents itself.

Albert Johansson with a BIG hit #LGRW pic.twitter.com/3TXndT8CgD

— IcehockeyGifs (@IcehockeyG) September 17, 2022

This final clip is from the SHL, where again you can see his confidence with the puck and evasive mobility. It is exciting to envision him pulling moves like this on the point for Detroit's second unit—perhaps as early as 2022-23, though even if he heads back to Grand Rapids, it won't be for long.

[67] "It's easy to imagine Albert Johansson in an NHL role, doing the same things that bring him so much success in the SHL right now." pic.twitter.com/uZoznS95cx

— IcehockeyGifs (@IcehockeyG) September 12, 2022

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The tenuous roster spots currently held by ageing peripheral gods like Mark Borowiecki (Nashville's seventh D) and Calvin De Haan (barely made the Hurricanes off a PTO) has me taking a closer look at younger, more secure options. For years, Borowiecki could push teams over the top on both PIMs and Hits. Ditto for De Haan with Blocks.

But it is tough to invest in players who are likely to be scratched at times throughout the year. A few interesting replacements include Ryan Lindgren (NYR), Martin Fehervary (WAS), Artem Zub (OTT), and Dante Fabbro (NAS). All of these players are in their early-to-mid-20s and stapled to their team's top offensive defender—Adam Fox, John Carlson, Thomas Chabot, and Roman Josi respectively—which results in consistently big minutes (~20 minutes/game) and solid peripherals.

The downside of this new guard of potential peripheral beasts is the same as always: minimal point outputs drastically limit their value. The thing is, though, these players provide a safe floor. You can hope for 20 points with above average peripheral contributions. And recent defenders to have significant late-career offensive breakouts after playing similar roles for years include Devon Toews (COL) and Mackenzie Weegar (FLA).

Toews, 28, followed up a three-year college career with three years in the AHL before sticking with the Islanders. He passed his BT halfway through last year and turned in an astonishing 71-point pace alongside Cale Makar. Weegar similarly spent several years toiling in the AHL. He hit his BT halfway through 2020-21 and turned in a 55-point career best point pace.

So might any of the defenders listed above leverage their top-pairing role into meaningful offensive production?

Name	Career GP	Point Pace	Shots/GP	Hits/GP	Block/GP
Martin Fehervary	85	18	1.22	3.18	1.48
Ryan Lindgren	194	16	0.94	1.65	1.81
Artem Zub	128	22	1.14	1.91	1.53
Dante Fabbro	176	41	1.00	1.05	1.59

Factoring in playoff experience, Lindgren has already passed his BT and Fabbro is just a few games out. Zub is still a year away but has parts of six KHL seasons under his belt that should likely factor into projections. Fehervary will be a longer wait.

From this group, Fabbro is the only one who has really flashed any offensive upside at lower levels. His 41-point pace from last year and steady improvements over his career to date have him looking like a solid under-the-radar candidate to push for 50 points in 2022-23. His physical build and peripheral contributions have him looking like a Toews clone.

Even if Lindgren and Zub do not improve their point outputs much moving forward, they will still reliably bring about 300 blocks+hits to the table on top of decent plus/minus ratings and a few shots and points. Fehervary likewise has never shown much offensive flair in the past but offers the most multi cat appeal from this group. If he continues to complement Carlson well and can add a few more points to his total, he will provide excellent stable value on the blue line.

Thanks for reading! Follow me on Twitter @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.