Top 10 Way Too Early Takeaways of the 2022-23 Campaign

Tom Collins

2022-10-17

be starting to see the beginning of some trends. 

However, we won’t know if these are trends for a few more weeks, but it may be too late by then if you’re hoping to snag some players off the waiver wire. 

Of course, it could be a game or two that is skewing numbers. Nonetheless, it’s good practice to scrutinize players in the top 100 for leaders in shots, ice time, percentage of power-play minutes played, etc. It might give you a player to follow for a potential breakout candidate, or you might find someone worth stashing. 

Most of the players on this list are undrafted in most leagues. I’m not saying you should drop struggling superstars such as Patrick Kane and Jack Hughes for some of the names on this list. However, we all have players we can drop. For instance, in a 12-team, 25-player Yahoo league I am in, I took a chance on Sammy Blais, who was expected to be in a top-six role but has been injured so far and has yet to play a game. 

Below are the top 10 way-too-early takeaways from the first few games of the season.

10. J.J. Moser getting plenty of ice time

For those who haven’t been following, the Coyotes are going with a three-forward, two-defensemen top power-play unit. However, in a move that maybe no one saw coming, the 22-year-old Moser has been one of those defensemen. He’s been on the ice for almost 80 per cent of the team’s power-play minutes so far, which has led to two power-play points for Moser in two games. He also plays shorthanded minutes, on the ice for about 64 per cent of all of Arizona’s penalty-killing minutes. It’s led to an average ice time of 25:30 so far for Moser, the fourth-highest average per night among all NHL players. Even on a team as offensively putrid as Arizona, he’s worth keeping an eye on.

9. Zeroes across the board

There have been a few players for where it would have been better if you didn’t put them in your lineup. Jonathan Drouin, for example, has zero points, zero shots, zero PIM, zero plus/minus, zero power-play points, etc., although he’s only played one game. The same goes for Nate Schmidt and Shane Wright. Ryan O’Reilly also has zeroes, outside of a minus-one (although he also has six faceoff wins if your league counts that). Maybe the most frustrating has been Jakub Voracek, who has managed six shots in three games and not much else. The rest of his stat line reads as zero goals, zero assists, zero PIM, zero hits and zero power-play points. He also has a league-worst minus-six, which is worse than a zero. 

8. Rookies aren’t getting the ice time

Anyone who says hockey is now a young man’s game has never met NHL coaches, who seem determined to make rookies “earn” their spots and pay for their mistakes, which doesn’t happen with veteran players. Shane Wright played 6:14 in his first appearance and was a healthy scratch for the second game. Jack Quinn had the least amount of ice time for any Sabre forward in Buffalo’s first game of the season and then had his ice time cut by almost three minutes in the next game. Dylan Holloway was quickly taken out of a top-six role in his first game and is averaging 8:16 minutes through two games. Marco Rossi led the league in preseason points but is centering the fourth line during the regular season. Juraj Slafkovsky is averaging fewer than 11 minutes per night through three games with the Habs. Alexander Holtz played alongside Jack Hughes in the preseason but is on the third line in the regular season. Kent Johnson is averaging 12 minutes per contest in Columbus. Sure, there are a couple of exceptions, but this goes a long way to once again proving why you don’t draft rookies in one-year leagues. 

7. Daniel Vladar to have more starts

File this one under “news that would have been nice to know three weeks ago before the majority of drafts happened.” Calgary Flames head coach Darryl Sutter told the Calgary media on Saturday morning that he plans to give Vladar one start per week. That may not sound like a lot, but that puts Vladar at about 26 games. That will have a slight impact on Jacob Markstrom‘s production, who would start about 56 games, a drop from the 63 games he started a year ago. With some strong play, maybe Vladar can usurp another start or two. Fewer starts will mean fewer wins for Markstrom. 

6. Marc-Andre Fleury continues to struggle

The Wild have done plenty to ensure Fleury is their main man in nets with little competition. Last year, they traded Kaapo Kahkonen to San Jose. In the summer, they sent Cam Talbot packing to Ottawa. But Fleury has struggled with Minnesota, and the Wild have left themselves in a situation where they don’t have a suitable backup (no offence to Filip Gustavsson). In 11 games with the Wild last season, Fleury had a below-average .910 SV% and 2.74 goals against average. But he won nine of 11 games, as the team scored 44 goals in those 11 games. In the playoffs, Fleury continued to struggle. This year, it’s more of the same for the soon-to-be 38-year-old, as he gave up seven goals in his first game and four goals in the first period Saturday night before he got pulled. 

5. A Carter Hart revival

Many had believed that the Flyers were going to be awful this year. They were receiving poor scores in fan confidence and optimism, and many thought the team was going to be a contender for first overall in the NHL draft. It’s still early, but it seems as if John Tortorella has had a major positive impact on Hart. The Flyers goalie has two wins in two games to go along with a 2.00 goals against average and a .940 SV%. Many have given up on Hart, but Tortorella has proven he can get the most out of his goalies in the past. Maybe this is the start of getting the best out of Hart. 

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4. Boone Jenner‘s faceoff prowess

I wrote in the preseason that Jenner could be a long shot for a 40-goal season, mostly as he was expected to start the season lining up alongside Johnny Gaudreau and Patrik Laine at even strength while also playing on the top power-play unit. While all that is coming true so far (aside from the goals part), he could stick on the top line thanks to his faceoff proficiency. He leads the league with 47 faceoff wins (to go along with only 17 faceoff losses for an amazing 73 per cent win rate). He has won 12 of 13 faceoffs with the man advantage and has won at least 14 faceoffs in each of his three games. He’s been consistently above 50 per cent faceoff winning percentage for years, but last year was the first time he finished with at least 10 faceoff wins per game. Right now, he’s at 15.67. 

3. Justin Schultz manning a power-play again

Although he was once a power-play specialist (reaching 20 man-advantage points with Pittsburgh one year), he hasn’t been able to recreate that success in recent campaigns. In his last couple of years with the Capitals, he barely saw the ice when the team had a power play, so Schultz may have been overlooked going into the season. However, he’s been given the opportunity to run a power play again, and he responded with two power-play points in the first game. He’s been on the ice for about 60 per cent of Seattle’s power-play minutes so far, and is available in 94(!) per cent of Yahoo leagues as of Sunday. 

2. Surprising ice times

As mentioned in the intro, a good strategy is to look at ice time leaders early in the season to see if there are any surprises there. We’re still at the stage of the season where one game can skew the numbers, so you’d have to do a deeper look into any unexpected surprises to determine if this is sustainable. For example, was the player seeing an increase in ice time at the end of last season? Are they only seeing an increase because of an injury to a teammate? Has the coach said he believes the player has earned it or wants to see what the player can do with more ice time? We mentioned Moser already, but here are five more surprising names among the leaders for minutes per game:

Valeri Nichushkin: 22:04 is the fourth highest among forwards, which is pushed up thanks to 6:05 power-play minutes per night. 

Travis Boyd: 20 minutes per night while centering the top line in Arizona while also on the top power-play unit. 

Nicholas Paul: 19:20 per night. While 3:49 of that is shorthanded, he is playing at even strength with Steven Stamkos and Alex Killorn

Noah Cates: Averaging 19:37, he seems to have earned John Tortorella’s trust already. He and Joel Farabee played 4:44 of Philly’s shorthanded minutes together Saturday night (the next highest combo was at 1:56). He’s also averaging 2:30 power-play minutes per game and is second on the Flyers forwards for even-strength ice time per game. 

Joel Farabee: At 20:52 per night, he’s playing with Cates shorthanded and even strength, but is also on the top power-play unit. 

1. Auston Matthews is a hitting machine

Through three games, Matthews has 14 hits, which is fifth in the league. He had a career-high 67 hits last season, but that took him 73 games to accomplish. He’s had at least three hits in each contest so far. He’s not going to finish with the 383 hits he is on pace for, but even if he gets to 250 hits, that would lead to an insane fantasy season. We’re looking at Matthews adding another element to his fantasy game which would put him close to on par with Alex Ovechkin when Ovi was in his prime. Imagine a season where Matthews finishes with 60 goals, 100-plus points, 350 shots, 20 power-play goals, 35 power-play points and 250 hits. This could cement him as the number-one draft pick in one-year fantasy leagues next season. 

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