Frozen Tools Forensics: Early Season Notables – Part 2

Chris Kane

2022-10-21

The beginning of the season is an incredibly important time in fantasy. There is always a certain amount of roster turnover as players have fast starts, slow starts, or get better/worse deployment than expected. It is a time when attentive managers can really get an upper hand and turn a streaming spot, or dud draft pick, into a long-term hold. For this week we are going to follow up on some notable players from last week and review a few more. Next week we will return to more of our regularly scheduled programming.

This week on Frozen Tool Forensics: Early Season Notables Part 2.

Like last week we don't have a specific report we are working off of, more taking a look at changes in lines, flashes of production etc. in the early going. The goal is to identify if players are worth holding/grabbing, or if we should be cutting bait. We will be referencing the Player Profiles, using the game log, line combo, and career pages, while using rostered percentages from Yahoo. Also this is all based on Wednesday night games so I will undoubtedly miss some storylines from Thursday night. The usual caveat also applies here that we are dealing with small sample sizes, and deployment can change quickly.

First up: quick check in on last week's mentions

We started with a list of players who had piqued my interest. One week later here is your short and sweet update.

Ondrej Kase: Injured, drop or stash.

Jesperi Kotkaniemi: Two points and two shots in three games, not super interesting. Consider replacing.

Martin Necas: Five points and nine shots in three games, 18 plus total time on ice. Sign me up.

Dylan Strome: Low shot rates, but still top deployment – four points in four games overall.

Andrei Kuzmenko: Decreasing time on ice and shot rates, borderline streamer.

Reilly Smith: Keeping deployment and 17 shots in four games, hold.

Artturi Lehkonen: Hold, obviously.

The next group was the list of players who I was holding out for more data before recommending.

Connor Brown: Injured, drop or stash.

Luke Kunin: Decent shot and hit rates, and ice time. Point production is likely going to be low.

Victor Olofsson: 10 shots and two goals in three games but lost top line. Less interested.

Marco Rossi: Poor deployment, might get a chance with Matt Boldy. Less interested.

The last group were players getting some hype that I was worried about, so not recommending.

Kaapo Kakko: Has maintained deployment, nine shots, and two goals over four games. Very eh work here.

Nino Niederreiter: One goal and seven shots in three games since last reporting. Fine, but also eh.

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Jakub Vrana: Taking time away for personal reasons. Drop or stash.

Evgeni Dadonov: Hard drop.

Now let's turn our attention to a few new names worth mentioning.

Ok so who had Philly getting out to a 3-0 start on their bingo card? Well now they are 3-1, but still. We have to briefly mention Travis Konecny (45 percent rostered) and Kevin Hayes (10 percent). Konecny is off to a very fast start with six points and 14 shots over his first four games. On the one hand, he has never been a point per game player before, but on the other, he is getting over 20 minutes a night and almost five on the power-play. By far the most he has ever seen. Sure, his shooting percentage is a little high, and his team's shooting percentage with him on the ice is high, and sure he is also on Philly who don't have a lot of offensive weapons at the moment, but maybe? He won't continue a 123-point pace, but 70-75? That would certainly be valuable. Hayes is getting a similar big bump in ice time, and has a similar six points in four games, but without a goal to his name. He also has a much more reasonable team shooting percentage. Again, a 123-point pace is probably not in the cards, but this massive change in deployment could lead to quite a bit of increased success. Color me very interested.

Over in Seattle, Matty Beniers (51 percent) had his career point per game streak snapped, while Oliver Bjorkstrand (29 percent) now has four points and 18 shots in five games. I love the shooting, and the Kraken certainly need Bjorkstrand to produce. He is seeing career-high time on ice and getting excellent deployment. Consider me interested. Beniers as a young player is going to go through some ups and downs, but he has been dynamic in the early going here. He has a high rostered percentage, but I am certainly holding for now even with two consecutive pointless games.

Gabriel Vilardi (37 percent) has seven points in five games from LA's third line and top power-play. Given he has only two power-play points thus far, and a 31 percent shooting percentage some of this is a mirage. However, if he can keep that deployment (and the Kings improve on their 15% power-play success rate) replacing those even strength points is certainly a possibility.

Jake DeBrusk is somehow only rostered in 35 percent of leagues. It was all but confirmed over the summer that he would be skating with Patrice Bergeron, and he has done so, both at even strength and on the power play. He did miss a game and then made surprise comeback, but he also has five points and 12 shots in three games. It remains to be seen what will happen when Brad Marchand returns, but for now Debrusk probably should be rostered.

Mason Marchment (56 percent) is somehow the highest rostered player we have discussed. He went on a great run last season, but there were still a lot of question marks. Thus far though he has been great. He has five points in three games and nine shots. He appears to be clicking with Tyler Seguin on a second line and second power-play. This certainly reflects an overall boost in time on ice, but I wouldn't expect that 33 percent shooting percentage to continue. Last season he had a 70-point pace over limited games, with limited minutes. The pace didn't look entirely sustainable under the hood, but if he can maintain this increased power-play role and keep clicking with Seguin, he might just be able to reach that pace again.

Oliver Wahlstrom (11 percent) has managed to put up four points (three goals) in two games thus far. This is great news if you happened to roster him, but the thing is I am not sure why you would have. He has spent most of his time on a third line and second power-play, though it does look like he also got a recent turn with Brock Nelson and Anders Lee in the top six. He did have four shots in each of those two games (which is great), but there are no other metrics for success here. His time on ice is equal or less than recent seasons, he isn't playing with higher caliber players, his team five on five shooting percentage is 24 percent (!!!! – his previous high is 7.8, and anything above 9 is usually high), and his personal shooting percentage is 37.5. Basically, he has gone on a two-game scoring binge that won't continue. For me to be interested that shot rate needs to continue, and he needs to add significant time on ice, both at even strength and the power-play. I am willing to check back in in a week or so and see if that top-six line sticks, but until then I am leaving Wahlstrom's hot start for someone else.

That is all for this week

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