Looking Ahead: Hayes, Zucker, and Blues Skaters Can Help; Bouchard, Fleury, and Predators May Not

Andrew Santillo

2022-10-21

It's been an entertaining start to the season with some surprise outcomes as well as some clubs in advantageous spots that have either shined or were a little bit of a letdown. There's lots to get into this week, let's dive in!

The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use him for the next several days)

Kevin Hayes, C, Philadelphia Flyers (Rostered in 7% of ESPN leagues, 29% Fantrax, 10% Yahoo) – Nobody panic, yes it's Philadelphia but a Flyers squad that's 3-1 out of the gate, and although a big part of that is goaltending, this is at the very least a prepared Philly team that has some pieces to like that could be a benefit in fantasy and DFS.

Last season was not ideal at all for Hayes and whether that was circumstances of COVID or the very sad offseason he had coming into the year we may never know, but what we do know is that the numbers weren't there for him and he went from a player that was drafted late in a lot of leagues, to one getting passed up on the waiver wire. This season with four games in, possibly a different story and a very encouraging one with Hayes has registered at least one point in all four of the Flyers games and beginning to shoot a bit more with four shots on goal during the Flyers last game vs Tampa Bay.

The slight issue here with Hayes as an immediate fix, is well, it is really immediate. The Flyers will only take the ice twice next week but are only one of three teams that will play both Saturday and Sunday this weekend. If your matchup is close or you're trying to catch up, this could be a good spot, they'll see Nashville who sure is no picnic to score against with Juuse Saros in net but this is a Nashville club that takes a fair amount of penalties. That could put Hayes and a fully correlated Flyers top line on the first power play unit often, and on Sunday this club will face San Jose, who will also be on the second game of a back-to-back.

The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)

Jason Zucker, LW, Pittsburgh Penguins (Rostered in 4% of ESPN leagues, 19% Fantrax, 4% Yahoo) – Lower rostered player, check. Playing on a good line, check. Sees a far bit of power play time, check. Zucker might not be the first player to come to mind as a building block for your fantasy team, but he's been in good spots to start the season and that trend may continue moving forward.

It’s early on in the season for sure, but so far Pittsburgh is 5th in team scoring and 2nd in goals by games played which is largely in part to the Pens' second line of Jason Zucker – Evegni Malkin – Bryan Rust. The trio is tied for the team lead in goals with three but has more shots on net than even the top line does with 29, and a higher Corsi for percentage at 64.2. The reason Zucker stands out is if that line can continue that production, he will likely be part of it, and is the lowest rostered player along that line (by far) so it's fair to assume he won't be available in your league. This line's production may go as the health of its parts go, or well, as the health of Malkin goes, but Malkin and Rust have been excellent going back to last season and if Zucker is along for the ride the primary and secondary assists should follow.

Right now Zucker is on the Pens second power play unit but this is not one of those clubs that sends out their first unit for as long of a duration as they can: in the last three games the top unit has played 10:14 with the second unit coming in at about half of that at 5:12. Sure, I wish that Zucker was fully correlated with Malkin and Rust but from a DFS standpoint one way to maybe get different is to not leave him off of a stack but just include him in it. Right now he has the best 5v5 shooting percentage of his career at 12.1, and yes small sample size, but if it's an outlook for things to come this could be a valuable asset that you can roster early on in the season.

The Odd Man Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)

Evan Bouchard, D, Edmonton Oilers (Rostered in 87% of ESPN leagues, 97% of Fantrax, 86% Yahoo) – Oil drops at half-mast, Tyson Barrie has all but taken over the top power play unit, leaving Bouchard with less ice-time and far less opportunity and value.

You see the roster numbers right now, but here's they were just two days ago – 92% ESPN (-7), 99% Fantrax (-2), and 91% Yahoo (-5), yes, those roster numbers are still up there but in looking at fantasy players and trends, this is always the decline. It's a handful of drops, then the rest of them begin to take place as a player no longer becomes someone you need to hang on to, but rather first on the chopping block. I had higher hopes that Bouchard would take over the Oilers top power play duties coming into the season, but it looks as though that isn't going to change any time soon, just last game Barrie registered 5:08 time on the man advantage, Bouchard just 33 seconds. 

I like Bouchard as a player and the average draft position for him tells me that I'm not alone but if he's not going to see much special teams time for a club that thrives on the man advantage than that's an issue moving forward this season.

The Anchors (They’ll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)


Marc-Andre Fleury, Minnesota Wild (Rostered in 70% of ESPN leagues, 98% Fantrax, 94% Yahoo) – It has been a very tough start, to say the very least, for Fleury and while I think he'll bounce back some, there are some underlying stats that I think need to be addressed.


Please note that I'm writing this Thursday afternoon and with Fleury slated to start vs Vancouver, there's a chance that we see a bounce back performance from the thirty-seven-year-old netminder, but for now here's the bad news. Fleury ranks last in goals saved above average (-6.55), Fenwick save percentage (82.82), high danger saves above average (5.21), and high-danger goals saved above expected (-2.98). What worries me here is the high danger stats, as last season Fleury was absolutely peppered with shots while playing on a bad Blackhawks team and fared better in that situation than he is now on what should be a sound defensive Minnesota club, both on the blue line and with a majority of their forwards being excellent defensively.

Maybe it's just a slow start, maybe some sort of lingering injury, we can speculate all we want but getting pulled in the Wild's second game vs LA followed by Wild head coach Dean Evason choosing to go with backup Filip Gustavsson in the team's last game vs Colorado, is concerning. I think (and hope) he turns it around and can be able to string a few good starts together in a row but I'm not sure how patient this Wild club will be with him given how the season has started.

Love ‘Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)


This period runs on October 2nd

Minnesota – On the horizon for the Wild next week they'll see Montreal, Ottawa, Detroit, and Chicago. For a club that's off to a slow start, this is an excellent stretch to get some points back in the standings.

St. Louis – The Blues have only played four games thus far this season, but the schedule always evens out eventually, and the Blues will have a busy schedule upcoming.

Chicago – Okay so believe it or not, the Hawks grade out great; they play a lot of games and mostly on home ice. I think Chicago might be the first Love Em that is a Love Em as far as betting and stacking a DFS lineup against? Next week they'll see Florida, Edmonton, Buffalo, and Minnesota. That's three Cup contenders, and Buffalo.

Leave ‘Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)

Nashville – A light schedule for the Preds puts them on the Leave 'Em side of things, and that's good for a club that's looked sloppy to start the season. The league leader in times shorthanded last season is already second in times shorthanded this season.

Calgary – Ditto everything above minus the number of penalties. The Flames will only be in action twice next week with two tough contests vs Pittsburgh and everyone's favorite, Edmonton. It's an Alberta thing.

Anaheim – Tough sledding so far for Anaheim, the Ducks are second worst in the league in shots for percentage, goals for percentage, and shots against per 60 minutes (Arizona is first, shocker), but that's still not great news when you have Tampa Bay, Vegas, and Toronto on the horizon.


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Friday, Oct 21st to Thursday, October 27th, 2022
Best Bets
Detroit 4.31 – Away CHI BOS – Home ANA NJD
Chicago 4.31 – Home DET SEA FLA EDM
San Jose 4.24 – Away NJD PHI – Home VGK TOR
Seattle 4.10 – Away COL CHI – Home BUF VAN
Florida 4.07 – Away CHI PHI – Home TBL NYI
 
Steer Clear
Carolina 1.66 – Away CGY VAN
Calgary 1.84 – Home CGY PIT
Anaheim 1.94 – Away DET – Home TBL
Arizona 1.95 – Away OTT CBJ
Nashville 2.21 – Home PHI STL
Saturday, October 22nd to Friday, October 28th, 2022
Best Bets
San Jose 4.24 – Away NJD PHI – Home VGK TOR
Vegas 4.20 – Away SJS – Home COL TOR ANA
New Jersey 4.15 – Away DET – Home SJS WSH COL
Boston 4.05 – Away CBJ – Home MIN DAL DET
Winnipeg 4.04 – Away LAK ARI – Home TOR STL
 
Steer Clear
Calgary 1.84 – Home CAR PIT
Nashville 2.21 – Home PHI STL
Carolina 2.56 – Away CGY VAN – Home NYI
Tampa Bay 2.79 – Away LAK ANA – Home NYI
Colorado 2.80 – Away VGK NYR NJD
Sunday, October 23rd to Saturday, October 29th, 2022
Best Bets
Chicago 4.25 – Away BUF – Home SEA FLA EDM
Seattle 4.24 – Away CHI – Home BUF VAN PIT
Florida 4.23 – Away CHI PHI – Home NYI OTT
St. Louis 4.16 – Away WPG NSH – Home EDM MTL
Detroit 4.16 – Away BOS – Home ANA NJD MIN
 
Steer Clear
Arizona 2 – Away CBJ – Home WPG
Calgary 2.05 – Home PIT EDM
Nashville 2.05 – Home STL WSH
Colorado 2.66 – Away NYR NJD NYI
Carolina 2.84 – Away VAN PHI – Home NYI
Monday, October 24th to Sunday, October 30th, 2022
Best Bets
Vegas 4.30 – Away SJS – Home TOR ANA WPG
Minnesota 4.28 – Away MTL OTT DET CHI
St. Louis 4.16 – Away WPG NSH – Home EDM MTL
Chicago 4.09 – Away BUF – Home FLA EDM MIN
New Jersey 4.04 – Away DET – Home WSH COL CBJ
 
Steer Clear
Philadelphia 1.84 – Home FLA CAR
Calgary 2.05 – Home PIT EDM
Nashville 2.05 – Home STL WSH
NY Islanders 2.60 – Away CAR – Home NYR COL
Colorado 2.66 – Away NYR NJD NYI
Tuesday, October 25th to Monday, October 31st, 2022
Best Bets
Buffalo 4.67 – Away SEA – Home MTL CHI DET
Minnesota 4.28 – MTL OTT DET CHI
St. Louis 4.16 – Away NSH – Home EDM MTL LAK
Chicago 4.09 – Away BUF – Home FLA EDM MIN
Detroit 4.05 – Away BOS BUF – Home NJD MIN
 
Steer Clear
Philadelphia 1.84 – Home FLA CAR
Ottawa 1.90 – Away FLA – Home MIN
Vancouver 2.04 – Away SEA – Home PIT
Calgary 2.05 – Home PIT EDM
Nashville 2.05 – Home STL WSH
Friday, October 26th to Tuesday, November 1st, 2022
Best Bets
Minnesota 4.40 – Away OTT DET CHI – Home MTL
St. Louis 4.16 – Away NSH – Home EDM MTL LAK
NY Rangers 4.06 – Away NYI DAL ARI – Home PHI
Anaheim 3.99 – Away VGK SJS – Home TBL TOR
Chicago 3.99 – Away BUF – Home EDM MIN NYI
 
Steer Clear
Colorado 1.85 – Away NJD NYI
Columbus 1.09 – Away NJD – Home BOS
Calgary 2.21 – Home EDM SEA
Philadelphia 2.65 – Away NYR – Home FLA CAR
Seattle 2.75 – Away CGY – Home VAN PIT
Saturday, October 27th to Wednesday, November 2nd, 2022
Best Bets
Buffalo 4.62 – Home MTL CHI DET PIT
Minnesota 4.40 – Away OTT DET CHI – Home MTL
Toronto 4.15 – Away SJS LAK ANA – Home PHI
Chicago 3.99 – Away BUF – Home EDM MIN NYI
Los Angeles 3.91 – Away NJD NYI
 
Steer Clear
Colorado 1.85 NJD NYI
Columbus 1.99 – Away NJD – Home BOS
Tampa Bay 2.15 – Away SJS – Home OTT
Calgary 2.21 – Home EDM SEA
Seattle 2.75 – Away CGY – Home VAN PIT

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