The Journey: Early Check-In on Calder Projections – Part 2 (Perfetti, Power, Rossi, Sanderson, Slafkovsky, and more)

Ben Gehrels

2022-10-22

Welcome back to The Journey, where we follow hockey prospects and their paths to the NHL, providing fantasy predictions and analysis along the way.

This week, we will continue revisiting the 25 players I listed in my Calder article for the Dobber Fantasy Guide to see who opened the season in the NHL and who was sent down to the AHL or junior. Although it is dangerous to read too much into these early roster decisions and game performances, there is still insight to be gained here. Where and how players are being deployed can reveal a lot about their role moving forward. A rookie that breaks camp with his team and makes it past his nine-game audition (which burns the first year of their Entry Level Contract) will be much more likely to claim the league’s top rookie award than someone who has already been sent down to the farm team.

In case you missed it, check out Part 1 of this Calder Check-In, which includes analysis on Calen Addison, Matty Beniers, Dylan Guenther, Dylan Holloway, Alexander Holtz, Kent Johnson, Mattias Maccelli, and Mason McTavish. This week for Part 2, we will check in on the remaining 17 players listed in my original Calder article for the Dobber Guide—which you can pick up here.

Of the 25 players I forwarded for Calder consideration back in the summer, 16 ended up on their team’s opening night rosters, eight were sent down to the AHL, none were sent back to junior, and one (Scott Perunovich, STL) was injured.

Cole Perfetti (WPG)

Perfetti was pointless over his first two games, so it is fortunate he didn't make the cut last week. Mine was the only vote for Perfetti in the Dobber Experts predictions for the Calder trophy, so I wanted to offer a quick defence. He made my job easier in Games 3 and 4, scoring three points—including one on the power play.

Perfetti continues to show high-level vision and IQ. He is calm with the puck and patient while scanning for openings in the defence. Even as a rookie, he is able to make small moves and adjustments to buy time and thread dangerous passes. On the play against Colorado that resulted in his first assist of the year, for instance, Perfetti supported a zone entry on a power play, circled back to slow things down and let everyone get in position, then immediately amped up the pressure with a cross-ice pass through the slot that led to a Sam Gagner goal.

Perfetti has been stapled to Blake Wheeler and Pierre-Luc Dubois so far; the trio has played together nearly 80% of the time. A strange stat: they are basically even in terms of shots for and against while they are on the ice together (24 for, 25 against) but are dominating in terms of shot attempts (ie. Corsi) with 53 for and 35 against. That imbalance suggests they are generating a great deal of pressure in the offensive zone that has not yet translated fully to the scoresheet.

During Winnipeg's most recent game (5-2 loss to Vegas), Perfetti's line was by far the most effective for the Jets. Again, they pressured heavily in terms of shot attempts (16-10) but came away this time down a goal.

Don't read too far into Perfetti's lack of power play time against Vegas. The Jets only had two seconds on the man advantage. He is receiving about 40% of the available PP time and is the kind of player who will thrive with that extra space and time.

I chose Perfetti for the Calder for two main reasons: opportunity and trajectory. His opportunity was outlined above—a firm role in the Jets' top six alongside two of their top scorers and consistent time on their top power play unit. In terms of trajectory, his has been pointed straight at stardom since his Draft-1 year when he went well over a point per game for the Saginaw Spirit. After that, he obliterated the OHL in his draft year (1.81 ppg), played a key role for Canada at back-to-back World Juniors, and then put up 41 points in his first 49 AHL games. He feels unstoppable.

Even if he ends up falling short of the trophy, I like Perfetti a lot moving forward as a building block in keeper and dynasty formats. Let's hope he can also provide solid value in 2022-23 for those who grabbed him in redraft leagues.

John-Jason Peterka (BUF)

Peterka, who led all AHL rookies in scoring last year with 68 points in 70 games, is a point per game so far in his young career, having scored one point in each of his four games to date. The consistency is nice to see, as is his 80% IPP, which suggests he has been central to goals scored while he is on the ice.

This kid has skills. He can both distribute—check out this slick little drop pass—and put the puck in the net himself.

Buffalo has come out of the gate guns-a-blazing, averaging more than four goals per game, and Peterka has been a big part of that. He has been partnered closely with Dylan Cozens, and that pair has played with both Peyton Krebs and former Dobber darling, Vinnie Hinostroza. Although they have been outscored in the early going, they have held their own well and generated solid pressure.

The Sabres have doled out ice time quite evenly: the top line of Alex Tuch, Jeff Skinner, and Tage Thompson, for instance, saw only about two more minutes than Peterka and Cozens, who ostensibly make up the team's fourth line at the moment. Peterka looks like he will stick with Buffalo past his nine-game audition, but the Sabres still have five games to decide. If he continues scoring, it won't make sense to send him down.

The main concern for Peterka owners should be his lack of PP time. He seems to have been left off both units for now. Shave 10+ points off his total if that trend continues.

Owen Power (BUF)

Power, who received four Calder votes from the Dobber Experts, went pointless over his first three games. He then picked up two assists, both at even strength, in the Sabres' 6-3 win over Calgary on Thursday.

There is a lot to like about his early deployment. He is receiving buckets of power play time (averaging almost three minutes) and all the ice he can handle, mostly alongside Henri Jokiharju. As I wrote in the initial Calder article, Jokiharju has historically been paired with Rasmus Dahlin, so he has experience supporting an offensively inclined partner. Although their play-driving numbers haven't been great so far, that likely speaks to the quality of competition they are facing.

I proposed Aaron Ekblad's 39-point Calder-winning rookie year as a likely blueprint for Power's first year, and that projection still looks apt at this point: Power is averaging almost 22 minutes a night, just like Ekblad did, but Ekblad received about 15% more PP time than Power has seen so far.

It is still early, of course, but it wouldn't be surprising to see Power push for 40 points in his first year. If the Sabres' offence keeps rolling as it has been and a couple things go Power's way (an injury to Dahlin, for instance), he could conceivably put up 50 points with great peripherals like 2021 winner Mo Seider did last year.

Marco Rossi (MIN)

It's a great time to pitch an offer to the Rossi owner in your league.

While many other rookies have excelled early, the Austrian has gone pointless over four games, been healthy scratched once, and largely buried on the fourth line with minimal minutes—although that did change for the Wild's last two games, both overtime losses, where Rossi saw reps alongside Frederick Gaudreau and Matt Boldy. Hopefully he continues to play in the top six because that is absolutely where a player of his calibre belongs.

If (when) he makes magic with Boldy, watch out. This guy is hungry and just looking for a chance to explode. I wouldn't be surprised to see him have a similar breakout to what we saw from Cole Caufield last year after the Canadiens' coaching change.

The Wild as a team have been struggling, however, and there will be changes if that continues. It also wouldn't be overly surprising to see Rossi get sent down to Iowa (AHL) for a stretch to settle everything down. While that might even be best for his development in the long run, it would likely spell the end of his Calder aspirations—at least for 2022-23.

While you compose an offer to the Rossi owner in your league or wait impatiently for his breakout, check out his recent "Becoming Wild" feature:

Jake Sanderson (OTT)

The Senators' offence, which looked like one of the most improved in the league on paper, finally came alive over the past couple games: they scored 12 goals against Boston and Washington to claim back-to-back victories after losses to Buffalo and Toronto. Sanderson missed out on all that scoring somehow but does have an assist today against Arizona (Sens lead 2-0 as I write this) to go along with an earlier assist from the Toronto game.

Sanderson is seeing almost five minutes TOI less per night than Power and less time on the PP too (averaging 30%). On the plus side, he and partner Travis Hamonic are faring quite well in terms of Corsi For as the team's second pairing: they are generating about as many shots for as shots against.

While he is on track to be an all-situations multicategory stud, I am not convinced the scoring will be there this year to the point that he is a Calder contender, even though he is likely to stick with the Senators all year. But like Power, if Thomas Chabot misses time due to injury or a couple other things go his way, Sanderson has the potential to be this team's top defender—even as a rookie.

He certainly doesn't look like a rookie out there.

Juraj Slafkovsky (MON)

Slafkovsky scored his first NHL on Thursday against the Coyotes:

In the four games prior, however, he was credited with just one shot, one block, and eight hits—numbers that support the prevalent idea that some AHL seasoning would be useful for his development.

As a counterpoint, Slafkovsky's line (Montreal's fourth) showed strong play-driving numbers during their last game against Arizona, including his first goal.

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If he does not manage to break into the Habs' top six or even top nine after playing four more games, expect Slafkovsky to be sent down to Laval (AHL). Montreal is actually quite deep at forward this year, and he would likely benefit more from playing big minutes with the Rockets than logging fourth-line duties alongside Mike Hoffman and Jake Evans.

Like I said in the Guide's Calder article, however, it is hard to bet against Slafkovsky when he so consistently beats the odds. No one expected him to lead the Olympics in goal scoring as a draft eligible and then beat out Shane Wright for the first overall slot. I didn’t even expect him to break camp with the Canadiens but here we are.

Jack Quinn (BUF)

Like his former OHL teammate Rossi, Quinn has been a healthy scratch for the last two games. As with Rossi, feel free to start pestering his owner in your league with trade offers. He's a bust!

Coach Don Granato's quote suggests that Quinn will stick with the Sabres this year despite the health scratches. After all, what does he have left to prove at the AHL level after scoring a ridiculous 61 points in 45 games? This guy has the moves and the shot to beat NHL goaltenders right now—it's just a question of how long it will take him to adjust to the faster pace and defensive responsibilities of the highest level.

Quinn for Calder isn't looking great at this point but he remains a high-end prospect in keeper and dynasty formats.

Shane Wright (SEA)

No one is going to win the Calder playing six minutes a night or watching from the bleachers.

It has been Alexander Wennberg and Matty Beniers down the middle for the Kraken's top six to start the year with Wright primarily playing on the third line with Brandon Tanev and Ryan Donato. The 2022 fourth overall pick has already endured two games as a healthy scratch.

He did get his first NHL point, though, on this stretch pass that sprung Donato on a breakaway:

Looking longer term, the upshot of this sheltered, stingy deployment is that Wright is not under the more intense pressure and scrutiny that would come with a top six role—and first-overall billing, for that matter. The Kraken seem to have taken a significant step forward offensively this offseason, so the Wright-as-saviour narrative has not come to much.

This is an 18-year-old player adjusting to the best league in the world. He will be fine but might not light things up in 2022-23 either. It is doubtful that Seattle will elect to send Wright back to the OHL but will rather shelter him like they have been to bring him along slowly and properly.

Starting in the AHL

That concludes the list of rookies featured in my Calder Candidates article who began the season with their NHL teams. The following eight players were sent down to their team's AHL affiliate to open the year but all of them are likely to see call-ups before too long—particularly the Leaf phenom who scored two goals (including the OT winner) in his first game after being promoted.

Jonatan Berggren (DET)

I was surprised that Berggren did not start out with the Red Wings. He was sent down after camp and has only played one AHL game since (zero points). It was not a cap situation, so why did depth players like Adam Erne make the team instead of the talented Swedish playmaker? Regardless, with Jakub Vrana stepping away from the team (personal) and Tyler Bertuzzi going down with an injury for 4-6 weeks, there is an opportunity here. Hopefully for Berggren owners, he will get called up soon and show some of the zip that allowed him to score 64 points in 70 AHL games last year. Berggren is 22 and signed until the end of 2023-24.

Mavrik Bourque (DAL)

Bourque has one point in three AHL games. With fellow Stars prospect Wyatt Johnston up with the big club and doing well (two points in four games), there is likely no room for Bourque at the moment barring injury. He will have to bide his time in the minors for now until an opportunity arises. Expect him to start putting up big points as a rookie pro once he gets acclimated.

Pavel Dorofoyev (VGK)

Dorofoyev has three goals in four AHL games and is a strong candidate to be called up to Vegas soon and stay there the rest of the year. It is easy to imagine him meshing well on a line with Jack Eichel or Mark Stone.

William Eklund (SJS)

Eklund too will likely be called up by the Sharks soon. He has scored one goal in two AHL games so far but looked great in the preseason and in limited action at the start of last year. I have a feeling he will spend most of this year in San Jose. A Calder run seems unlikely but you never know with a player like Eklund. If he gets called up soon and sees steady deployment in the top six, anything could happen.

Jakob Pelletier (CGY)

Pelletier followed up a disappointing camp, where he was beat out by Connor Zary, with no points in his first two AHL games after going a point per game in the minors last year. He is going to have to show more to warrant a call up but seemed to be on a very promising trajectory heading into the year.

Lukas Reichel (CHI)

Another surprising demotion after an impressive preseason. Reichel's role with the Blackhawks seemed secure after exceeding a point per game last year with Rockford (AHL) and Chicago basically selling the farm (Dach, Kubalik, DeBrincat) during the off-season. The opportunity is still there but Blackhawks brass seems to want him in the AHL again for now. The tanking is real in the Windy City.

Nicholas Robertson (TOR)

Robertson was one of the league's leading scorers in the preseason but was sent down initially due to Toronto's cap constraints. He scored two points in two AHL games before being called up against Dallas and scoring twice, including the overtime winner.

This is what Robertson does. He scored 16 goals in 28 AHL games last year and 55 goals in 46 OHL games a few years ago. The Band Aid Boy label many have given him was premature. Covid and a broken leg are not concerning longer term—just short-term setbacks.

Check out what Dobber Prospects Junior Editor Curtis Rines has to say about Robertson in his Prospect Ramblings from earlier today.

Jordan Spence (LAK)

Spence seems to have been bumped down to the farm by the logjam that is LA's defence corps. Despite the setback, Spence has picked up right where he left off last year with four assists in his first three AHL games. While he is likely out of the running for the Calder, he continues to prove that he can be an impactful scoring defenceman at the pro levels.

Thanks for reading! Check back next week for Part 3 of this Calder series where I look at some injured players and touch on a few rookies I would now add to my list of 25 if I could with the added context/information of the first month of the season. Follow me on Twitter @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.

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