Welcome back to The Journey, where we follow hockey prospects and their paths to the NHL, providing fantasy predictions and analysis along the way.

This week, we will conclude this three-part check-in on my Calder Trophy projections for the Dobber Fantasy Guide by discussing some rookies I would add to my Top 25 list now with the added context of a month of hockey.

In case you missed it, check out Part 1 of this Calder Check-In, which includes analysis on Calen Addison (MIN), Matty Beniers (SEA), Dylan Guenther (ARI), Dylan Holloway (EDM), Alexander Holtz (NJD), Kent Johnson (CBJ), Mattias Maccelli (ARI), and Mason McTavish (ANA). Part 2 covers Cole Perfetti (WPG), John-Jason Peterka (BUF), Owen Power (BUF), Marco Rossi (MIN), Jake Sanderson (OTT), Juraj Slafkovsky (MON), Jack Quinn (BUF), Shane Wright (SEA), and more.

Many of these rookies are approaching their critical tenth NHL game that burns the first year of their entry-level contract. If they play past nine games, that is a strong sign that they will stick in the NHL for the rest of the year—a feat that is obviously critical to win the Calder.

Here are the rookie scoring leaders (as of this morning):

Shane Pinto (OTT)

The most glaring omission from my Top 25 is Shane Pinto.

I was not sold on his opportunity with the Senators being strong enough for him to have a good shot at the Calder. I figured he was a two-way, third-line center who might play a lot of games but likely would not have the same boom-bust potential as players like Jonatan Berggren (DET) and Mavrik Bourque (DAL) who would more likely crack their teams' top six and see power play time.

Pinto is making me look silly so far with six points in his first seven games—a stretch that included five goals in five straight games, setting a new Senators record.

Step aside Stone, Alfredsson and Yashin. 👋

Shane Pinto scored for the fifth straight game and established the longest goal streak by a rookie in @Senators history. #NHLStats: https://t.co/AAZUyvFEhJ pic.twitter.com/9XjCsnayfA

— NHL Public Relations (@PR_NHL) October 25, 2022

The news that Josh Norris may miss the entire season with a lower-body injury only added to Pinto's legitimacy as a Calder threat. He will seemingly battle veteran Derick Brassard for the 2C role: for Ottawa's last game, Pinto was still with Mathieu Joseph and Tyler Motte on the third line while Brassard centered Claude Giroux and Alex Debrincat.

But it would not be surprising to see Pinto take advantage of this increased opportunity to become an integral part of the Sens offence moving forward. He is more likely than many of the players listed in my Top 25 to stick in the NHL for the entire season, and he has the skills to step in and do a decent Josh Norris impression—perhaps a sixty-point pace.

Pinto's shooting percentage and PDO are both bonkers right now, which suggests incoming regression, but his high IPP (75%) shows that he has been integral to goals scored while he's on the ice. If he gets a serious linemate upgrade and continues to see PP time, things should balance out in his favour even as his S% and PDO come down.

If I had a do-over, I would definitely include Pinto in the top 25 over players like Berggren, Maccelli, Mavrik Bourque (DAL), and Pavel Dorofeyev (VGK). His opportunity may have seemed limited but his brief NHL trial last year showed that he had the chops to stick in the big leagues and that he was more crucial to his team's plans than those other four players were to their teams. I should have recognized the more certain bet instead of swinging for the fences.

Look at this guy go.

SHANE PINTO, PURE FILTH! 🚨

What a release, he now has goals in 5 straight games. pic.twitter.com/nFUb1jEXwq

— Lalime's Martian (@LalimesMartian) October 25, 2022

Brandt Clarke (LAK)

I did not expect Clarke to make the Kings over Jordan Spence.

Both are offensively inclined, right-shot defencemen but Spence performed well in a 24-game audition with the Kings last year and had a near-point-per-game AHL season under his belt already. Clarke posted a solid D+1 year in the OHL (59 points in 55 games) but seemed doubtful to break camp with LA.

When choosing the top 25 Calder candidates, I prioritized players like Spence who had at least a year of successful professional experience under their belts over those like Clarke who were excelling in junior. In most cases, high-end AHL production is one of the strongest precursors to the kind of immediate NHL success needed to take home the league's top rookie award.

Looking back, however, I am still not convinced that I would include Clarke in the top 25—even over the four players mentioned above. Assuming he plays tonight against the Leafs, this will be Clarke's ninth game. Has he done enough to stick? Even with his strong underlying metrics, I'm not convinced they won't send him back to the OHL, especially with Spence waiting in the wings and continuing to score in droves down on the farm team (six points in six games).

Clarke has been fabulously unlucky (912 PDO) but has been doing a great job most nights driving play alongside partner Alex Edler. The fact that the Kings have been playing two right-shot defenders (Matt Roy and Sean Durzi) together on the second pairing suggests that they want to make room for either Clarke or Spence.

Even if he does play his tenth NHL game, however, he is still not seeing any power-play time and has been averaging just over 13 minutes a game. There is no denying his talent, but it will be very difficult for Clarke to post meaningful numbers in 2022-23 with deployment like that. Either way, the Kings brass will have a tough decision on their hands after tonight.

And Brandt Clarke was never seen in the OHL ever again.#GoKingsGo pic.twitter.com/uobyGcKI7I

— Russell Morgan (@NHLRussell) October 26, 2022

For more thoughts on Clarke, check out my Prospect Ramblings over at Dobber Prospects.

Wyatt Johnston (DAL)

Many of my reasons for going with Spence over Clarke for the Calder also apply to Johnston: despite the fact that he ripped up the OHL last year (124 points in 68 games) in his D+1 year, it is rare to see players skip the AHL entirely and succeed in their first NHL season at the level required to win the Calder—even in their D+2.

I went with Bourque, a slightly older Dallas prospect, over Johnston, and that choice has not aged well so far. While Johnston is playing on the PP and contributing offensively for the Stars (four points in eight games) on a strong third line alongside Jamie Benn and Ty Dellandrea, Bourque is underwhelming in the AHL with only two points in his first six games. C'est la vie.

In Part Two, I described Cole Perfetti as unstoppable; Johnston's trajectory feels similar. Although he missed the critical opportunity to play during his draft year due to the pandemic, his D+1 performance was dominant.

The Dallas Stars took a risk drafting Wyatt Johnston and Logan Stankoven with their first 2 picks in 2021 (both essentially missed their DY because their leagues were shutdown due to covid). Johnston and Stankoven had 2 of the highest D+1 equivalencies amongst all 2021 draftees. pic.twitter.com/IBSqa03bhY

— Byron Bader (@ByronMBader) April 6, 2022

I'm more inclined to believe that Johnston will stick with the Stars than Clarke with the Kings. The coach clearly loves him.

Pete DeBoer on Wyatt Johnston playing his ninth game, and the impending decision: "I might hide him in my trunk so Jim can't find him."

— Matthew DeFranks (@MDeFranks) October 29, 2022

Plus, the synergy he has developed of late with Benn and Dellandrea has been noticeable.

Ty Dellandrea and Wyatt Johnston dragging Jamie Benn into being a productive player this year would actually be a really fun storyline https://t.co/KvnpbW6WVO

— Zach O'Lantern 🎃🎃🎃 (@ZWal93) October 26, 2022

If Johnston plays the full season with Dallas, a 50-point season could be in the cards, especially if he continues seeing time with the man advantage—though not having exposure at even strength to Jason Robertson definitely hurts his chances.

Simon Edvinsson (DET)

Given the presence of 2021 Calder winner Moritz Seider and the steady Filip Hronek, plus Detroit's logjam of middling NHL talent on the left side, I did not see enough opportunity for Edvinsson to make a run at the Calder. As expected, Detroit sent the big Swede down to the AHL to start the year for more seasoning.

He likely still doesn't have a shot at the top rookie award in 2022-23 but his four points in four AHL games suggests that he could be in line for a call-up before too much longer. Olli Maatta, Ben Chiarot, Jordan Oesterle, and Robert Hagg—Detroit's blueline lefties—do not inspire much confidence. If injuries begin to mount, it would be easy to see the Red Wings promoting Edvinsson to play on the third pair alongside countryman Gustav Lindstrom.

In preseason play, Edvinsson looked poised and confident with the puck. He wasn't afraid to make pinches in the offensive zone or lay the body—as Evgeni Malkin discovered.

Some short clips of Simon Edvinsson's play in preseason vs. Pittsburgh #LGRW pic.twitter.com/SwVycMXQDj

— IcehockeyGifs (@IcehockeyG) October 5, 2022

I still wouldn't include Edvinsson in my Top 25, but he is going to be an intriguing fantasy asset moving forward, no question.

Kaiden Guhle (MON)

Did anyone see Guhle stepping straight out of the WHL to average 21 minutes a night on Montreal's top pair? I certainly didn't.

To me, Guhle looked like a high-end defensive prospect who had found a new offensive gear in his D+1 (25 points in 25 WHL games) but would likely need a year or two more split between junior and the AHL before joining the Canadiens. Injuries to Mike Matheson and Joel Edmundson (both left-shot D like Guhle) left the Habs with very few options on the left side.

By the way, I recently profiled Arber Xhekaj, another left-shot rookie defenceman who has stepped up so far for Montreal, in another Prospects Ramblings at DP.

Five rookie defenders made my top 25—Addison, Power, Sanderson, Spence, and Scott Perunovich (STL). Spence was sent down and Perunovich got injured, but the first three players are nearly locks to stick with their NHL clubs. Addison, a PP wizard, has exploded out of the gate points-wise and currently leads all rookies in scoring.

But none of those players are their team's top defenceman like Guhle is at the moment. Even when Matheson returns, I expect Guhle's heavy usage to continue because he has played so well. The three points in eight games so far has been nice, but without seeing any power play time it will be tough for him to rack up points like Addison is doing alongside Kirill Kaprizov in Minnesota.

Nevertheless, he has been a revelation this year and can now boast his first career NHL goal. Like Edvinsson, Guhle will be a significant fantasy asset moving forward.

Welcome to the @NHL, Kaiden Guhle! 🎯🚨 pic.twitter.com/3uGLeNecVU

— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) October 28, 2022

Thanks for reading! Follow me on Twitter @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.