Frozen Tool Forensics: Early-Season Changes in Deployment

Chris Kane

2022-11-04

In this Frozen Tools column we love to keep an eye on deployment, it has become a bit of a theme of the articles over the years. Getting access to top-six minutes and top power-play time is usually critical to success. Unless you are somehow able to watch every game it is hard to stay on top of who is getting a shot in the best situations. Tools like Dobber's Last Game Lines, are certainly helpful, but we are still limited by team, and who has the time to check in on all 32 teams on a consistent basis?

One way I have found to help with this is to run time on ice reports for two periods of time and then compare them. It is an idea we often return to several times throughout the year, because not only is it incredibly important, it also is continually changing.

For the purposes of this week's article, we are pulling two reports from Dobber's reporting section. Both are the time on ice report, but for different time frames. Our baseline report is from the end of last season and our comparison is current data to date (Thursday 11/3). By comparing these sections, we can get an idea of which players are being exposed to different deployment across the entire league rather than just team by team. We will predominantly be looking at power-play usage this week to highlight players, but once selected we will be using Player Profiles, and Last Game Lines to figure out the context for what the data is showing us.

Another note here, given that this is comparing two separate season sets we do have a number of players who don't have comparable data who are getting decent deployment. Mostly these players fall into two categories, rookies (or other first year players), or players returning from injury).

Consider this your reminder that these players have been getting decent power-play deployment for their respective teams. We aren't going to deep dive them at the moment, so take a look if they are available in your league and see what they have been up to over the last couple of games (Shane Pinto is particularly interesting as his deployment has improved dramatically after Josh Norris' injury).

NamePosTeamPTS/GP%PPTOI
CALEN ADDISONDMIN0.779.918:10
ANDREI KUZMENKOLVAN0.660.815:52
DREW DOUGHTYDL.A0.559.626:38
DAVID KREJCICBOS158.416:44
BOONE JENNERCCBJ0.457.120:03
STEFAN NOESENLCAR0.6348.310:21
JADEN SCHWARTZLSEA0.9146.917:34
REILLY SMITHLVGK0.6442.316:43
DYLAN GUENTHERRARI0.7540.112:37
SHANE PINTOCOTT0.7836.514:42

But now onto players with improved deployment:

NamePosTeamPTS/GP22-23 %PP22-23 TOI21-22 %PP21-22 TOIΔ %PPΔ TOI
SEAN MONAHANCMTL0.662.517:23511:0457.56:19
MATT BOLDYRMIN182.719:1734.114:0148.65:16
LUKE KUNINRS.J0.4247.817:290.311:2747.56:02
BRANDON MONTOURDFLA168.125:5927.920:0240.25:57
TYLER JOHNSONLCHI164.713:5825.313:4539.40:13
DOMINIK KUBALIKLDET1.2258.815:2123.814:16351:05
ANTON LUNDELLCFLA0.440.417:237.114:1233.33:11
ARTTURI LEHKONENLCOL0.6775.221:0444.316:2630.94:38
J.J. MOSERDARI0.5662.523:4235.720:0426.83:38
HAMPUS LINDHOLMDBOS1.161.624:2635.922:2125.72:05
MAX DOMICCHI0.758.818:0233.512:0725.35:55
CALEB JONESDCHI0.6332.618:339.217:3123.41:02

Sean Monahan seemed left for dead in Calgary, but at least in Montreal he is being given an opportunity to be productive again. He is back over 17 minutes a night overall, and getting over 60 percent of the team's power-play time. In practical terms this has meant some time on the top line with Cole Caufield, and Nick Suzuki, but also other combinations within the top six. As of Montreal's game on November 1 and practice on November 3 he was skating on a line with Jonathan Drouin on what is probably a second line. He is still getting top power-play time with Suzuki and Caufield though. This section isn't about him, but Kirby Dach seems to be getting a run with Suzuki and Caufield at even strength and is on the top power-play. Both are producing at about a 50-point pace without strong shot rates so the upside doesn't seem great, but keep watching if Caufield and Suzuki stay strong.

Brandon Montour is an interesting case here. He has been up to almost 70 percent of his team's power-play time after seeing less than 30 at the end of last season. One factor is probably the departure of Mackenzie Weegar, and I have to imagine Aaron Ekblad's injury was helpful as well. Florida though was running a three forward, two d-man unit when Ekblad was in the lineup so Montour was still getting the top power-play time alongside him. The situation has clearly worked well for Montour as he has eight points in eight games and two on the power play. Ekblad is eyeing a return so it does remain to be seen what happens to Montour. It is possible that the Panthers return to a two D top unit, but it is certainly possible they don't. It is a situation that bears watching for Montour owners.

Dominik Kubalik is another one who seems to be loving life as a result of a teammate's injury. The Red Wings lost both Tyler Bertuzzi, and Jakub Vrana in this young season. For a few games that meant Kubalik was seeing top line and top power-play time with Dylan Larkin. He responded extraordinarily well with eleven points over nine games and four consecutive multi-point games (to be entirely fair one of those games were prior to the promotion – but the point remains). As of the game on October 31 though, Kubalik was off the Larkin line, and spent most of his time with Andrew Copp and David Perron. Worse, as of practice on November 3 he seems to be on the third line. It is not entirely dramatic panic time yet, as in both of those instances he was still on the top power-play (and five of his 11 points are power-play points), but it also isn't not dramatic panic time yet as the guy who was headed for some heavy regression anyway, and this linemate downgrade doesn't bode well.

There are few players here from Chicago so I think it makes sense to just reference their group as a whole. Chicago has been scoring a surprising number of goals thus far, but at the end of the day the player you want to be with is Patrick Kane, and you want to be on the top power-play. As of November 1 the players on the top line were Max Domi and Andreas Athanasiou. The top power-play was Kane, Domi, Jonathan Toews, and Taylor Raddysh (Tyler Johnson was on that unit as well to start the season, but was placed on IR as of October 27). That makes Domi the most immediately interesting. He has seven points in eleven games, but as of November 3 hasn't pointed in his last three. Domi has a history of inconsistency so I would imagine some amount of that is going to continue going forward.

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The new and kind of intriguing addition here is Caleb Jones. With Seth Jones out, Caleb is getting a run at the top power play. He was already somewhat valuable in multicat leagues with pretty consistent shot, hit, and block numbers, but add a top power-play role to that and I am most definitely interested. Seth Jones only put up a 54-point pace (and was only on a 41-point pace to start the season) so it isn't like this role is guaranteed points for Caleb, but while he is there, he is worth a shot in leagues that count peripheral categories.

That is all for this week. Do your part to support organizations working to make hockey for everyone.

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