Looking Ahead: Steer Clear of Elvis and the Blue Jackets Next Week

Andrew Santillo

2022-11-04

Whether or not we all want to admit it, if you're in more than one fantasy league, there's always one league that you likely give favor to. It might be like picking between children, but there's always that "favorite" league out of the bunch. That's the league you're on the waiver wire more often, give more time to your roster construction, and genuinely have more joy/relief when you win the week. This past weekend, I took my first loss of the season in my favorite league, which means it's time to roll up the sleeves. We're not taking any L's here in the near future, so let's dive in!

The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use him for the next several days)

Dylan Strome, C/RW, Washington Capitals (Rostered in 624% of ESPN leagues, 61% Fantrax, 24% Yahoo)
– I took a look at last season's schedule and we hit a stride around the same time as this season in early-mid November where we had loaded slates on Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday, and little to no action on the other days of the week. For this, we have to try and find a player who will suit up on all of the "off" days we'll have next week. Dylan Strome, come on down.

At first I wanted to potentially put a Caps d-man here as the Immediate Fix with John Carlson on IR, but the Caps have gone between Nick Jensen and Erik Gustafsson, but the Caps shuffled their D pairings around because their Washington and that's what they do. That gives us some lower-rostered forward options and Dylan Strome who was centering the Caps top line but with some line changes it looks as though he will be the second line center, because it's Washington and that's what they do.

One thing that won't change though is Strome centering the Caps' top power-play unit, and it's a power play that I don't think has really gotten going yet this season with much lower shot numbers than we're used to seeing. If things turn around here this week into next, it will likely be that Strome will have some part in it. He is C/RW eligible which is great, but with the lack of games next week on the days the Caps play you shouldn't have any issue getting him into your lineup. I will say, for those in leagues that score faceoff percentage, Strome has struggled in the dot at 43.6%, but for those in nine-cat leagues that need to pad the stats on the off day's next week, I think Strome makes a good option.

The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)

Carter Verhaeghe, LW, Florida Panthers (Rostered in 24% of ESPN leagues, 75% Fantrax, 41% Yahoo)
– It sort of took me by surprise seeing Verhaeghe's roster numbers across all platforms here. Sure Fantrax is usually a little higher with typically larger rosters, but less than 50% over on Yahoo and less than 25% on ESPN makes him an excellent piece to your roster moving forward if he's available.

I think off the bat what makes Verhaeghe so valuable is the line that he plays on, at left wing alongside Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk, both of whom are having great starts to the regular season in the top 20 players in individual chances for. There won't be a world where if Verhaeghe is a permanent fix on that line that he will go point-for-point throughout the season with those two, but he is a good player driver and exceptional controlling the puck on zone entries leading all skaters in that category last season. It's like we've said before with other lines, if Barkov has a good night, Verhaeghe is likely coming with him. Same goes for Tkachuk.

Although Verhaeghe isn't correlated with the top line on the power play, Florida is a club that does run their second power-play group out at least part of the time. In the last three games the top unit has seen around 13 minutes on the man advantage with the second group around 4:30. Not only do I think Verhaghe makes a good fantasy addition moving forward, but in DFS as well he creates a unique opportunity, where in most cases you'll see people trying to stack the top line, leave Verhaeghe on. If he does anything positive with that group, you'll likely lap a large part of the field.

The Odd Man Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)

Jordan Kyrou, LW/RW, St. Louis Blues (Rostered in 77% of ESPN leagues, 95% of Fantrax, 72% Yahoo)
– I know it's November and we haven't even gotten to American Thanksgiving yet, but I think the Blues could be in a bit trouble here going forward, with Kyrou as the odd-man out this week.

The Blues' power-play shooting is down and goaltending has been poor, but what is most concerning is this club's bottom six, especially on defense. With that, it looks like head coach Craig Berube has moved Kyrou down to the bottom six in an attempt to even out the lines. Although Kyrou's ice time has stayed relatively the same, this is not good news for folks with Kyrou on their roster.

Last season Kyrou spent time St. Louis's top two lines and saw a fair bit of time on the top power-play unit, and that surely made him a late draft pick for most out there. Him now the odd man out slated on the bottom six presents an issue for his offensive upside. Again, his ice time has been around the same skating close to 19:30 a night, and his shooting has gone up with 23 shots on goal in the past seven games because let's be honest, he's going to be the trigger man on a line with Jake Neighbours on his opposite wing. Even with that, Kyrou's 5v5 shooting is the lowest it's been in his career at 4.2 as well as his lowest points per 60 minutes down at 1.2. Unless he finds his way back up to the top six, he'll be an odd man out going forward.

The Anchors (They’ll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)

Elvis Merzlikins, G, Columbus Blue Jackets (Rostered in 51% of ESPN leagues, 85% Fantrax, 45% Yahoo)
– Right after I wrote that top sentence Elvis Merzlikins was just dropped in one of my leagues and I don't think I'm the only one out there seeing him appear on waivers all of a sudden.

No wins in his last four starts isn't great for the Jackets, but what's worse is that in three of those he allowed four or more goals. In fantasy leagues and DFS, allowing that number of goals can sink a lineup. Merzlikins has the worst goals saved above average at -8.28, third worst goals saved goals saved above expected at -7.37, and fourth lowest high danger chances saved above expected at -3.54. Those stats are brutal and not encouraging at all for those with Elvis on their roster.

I will say, if there's one silver lining to all of this it's that Merzlikins hasn't exactly gotten a lot of help in front of him, the Jackets have the lowest shots for on the power play and have yet to score on the man advantage. That combined with their even-strength play and play in net gives them the highest goals against per 60 at 4.26. I wouldn't be surprised if we see backup goaltender Daniil Tarasov get more starts in net here going forward. Although I do think he has upside, there's not a whole lot of optimism in fantasy.

Love ‘Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)


This period runs through November 3rd to November 16th

Minnesota – This is the third week in a row for the Wild in this spot and it's for good reason, the Wild will be in action plenty in the days to come. While they'll be away from St. Paul, they'll be well rested coming into next Tuesday's game versus LA with four days off.

NY Islanders
– There are three clubs tied at 3.51 with the highest goals for per 60. They are Boston (no surprise there), Ottawa (good wingers), and the Isles (the simulation is broken?). Regardless they've gotten great goaltending from Ilya Sorokin and even scoring from their top three lines. They'll play four times next week, which we love to see, with matchups at home vs the Coyotes and Blue Jackets.

Philadelphia
– Lots of high danger rush attempts being given up by this Philly squad, but they see Columbus twice in the next 10 days. That alone has boosted them to a Love 'Em.

Leave ‘Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)

Colorado
Another week goes by and the Avs still won't see much action which puts them on the Leave 'Em side of things for the second straight week. Their expected goals for per 60 hasn't really had time to improve with their lack of games played but the defensive numbers on the top line are alarming. In addition, both the Avalanche and Blue Jackets are playing a two-game series in Finland on November 4 and 5. After a long flight home, both don’t return to action until Thursday, November 10.

Chicago
– With the slates being as lopsided as they will be this week and next, some clubs just won't be in action as much and the Hawks are one of them. They'll be in the DFS mix for sure next week on the road vs an LA team that leads the NHL in penalties and the Ducks, but for those with any Blackhawks in fantasy (Patrick Kane, maybe Max Domi, but mostly Kane) it'll mean filling a roster spot.

Anaheim
– Anaheim is sort of always a Leave 'Em but for anyone thinking maybe a Ducks power play stack or two-man might be a good idea will have to wait. The Ducks are only in action twice next week.

Friday, November 4th to Thursday, November 10th, 2022
Best Bets
Carolina 4.16 – Away FLA – Home BUF TOR EDM
NY Islanders 3.96 – Away DET NYR – Home CGY ARI
Buffalo 3.93 – Away CAR TBL – Home ARI VGK
Calgary 3.86 – AwayNYI NJD BOS – Home NJD
Detroit 3.85 – Away NYR – Home NYI MTL NYR
 
Steer Clear
Chicago 1.81 – Away WPG LAK
Dallas 1.90 – Away EDM WPG
Minnesota 1.90 – Away LAK ANA
Seattle 1.90 – Away PIT – Home NSH
San Jose 2.06 – Away STL – Home ANA
Saturday, November 5th to Friday, November 11th, 2022
Best Bets
Washinton 4.25 – Home ARI EDM PIT TBL
NY Islanders 3.96 – Away DET NYR – Home CGY ARI
Calgary 3.86 – Away NYI NJD BOS – Home NJD
Detroit 3.85 – Away NYR – Home NYI MTL NYR
Toronto 3.75 – Away CAR – Home BOS VGK PIT
 
Steer Clear
Chicago 1.81 – Away WPG LAK
Colorado 1.95 – Away CBJ – Home NSH
Columbus – Home COL PHI
Winnipeg 2.26 – Home CHI DAL
Florida 2.74 – Away LAK ANA – Home CAR
Sunday, November 6th to Saturday, November 12th, 2022
Best Bets
St. Louis 4.05 – Away BOS PHI VGK – Home SJS
NY Islanders 4.01 – Away NYR – Home CGY ARI CBJ
NY Rangers 3.90 – Away DET NSH – Home DET NYI
Carolina 3.86 – Away FLA COL – Home TOR EDM
Detroit 3.82 – Away NYR LAK – Home MTL NYR
 
Steer Clear
San Jose 1.81 – Away STL DAL
Winnipeg 1.81 – Away CGY – Home DAL
Colorado 1.84 – Home NSH CAR
Chicago 1.90 – Away LAK ANA
Seattle 2 – Home NSH MIN
Monday, November 7th to Sunday, November 13th, 2022
Best Bets
Minnesota 4.10 – Away LAK ANA SEA – Home SJS
St. Louis 4.05 – Away BOS PHI VGK – Home SJS
NY Rangers 4.05 – Away DET NSH – Home NYI ARI
Philadelphia 4.05 – Away CBJ – Home STL OTT DAL
NY Islanders 4.01 – Away NYR – Home CGY ARI CBJ
 
Steer Clear
Colorado 1.84 – Home NSH CAR
Florida 1.89 – Home CAR EDM
Chicago 1.90 – Away LAK ANA
Columbus 2.02 – Away NYI – Home PHI
Anaheim 2.26 – Home MIN CHI
Tuesday, November 8th to Monday, November 14th, 2022
Best Bets
Los Angeles 4.17 – Away CGY Home MIN CHI DET
NY Islanders 4.12 – Away NYR OTT – Home ARI CBJ
Minnesota 4.10 – Away LAK ANA SEA – Home SJS
St. Louis 4.05 – Away PHI VGK COL – Home SJS
NY Rangers 4.05 – Away DET NSH – Home NYI ARI
 
Steer Clear
Florida 1.89 – Home CAR EDM
Columbus 2.02 – Away NYI – Home PHI
Anaheim 2.26 – Away NYI – Home PHI
Edmonton 2.52 – Away TBL CAR FLA
San Jose 2.71 – Away STL DAL MIN
Friday, November 9th to Tuesday, November 15th, 2022
Best Bets
Minnesota 4.15 – Away ANA SEA NSH – Home SJS
Pittsburgh 4.09 – Away WSH TOR MTL – Home TOR
Philadelphia 4 – CBJ CBJ – Home OTT DAL
Vancouver 3.99 – Away MTL TOR BOS BUF
Carolina 3.95 – Away FLA COL CHI – Home EDM
 
Steer Clear
Edmonton 1.66 – Away CAR FLA
Winnipeg 1.85 – Away CGY SEA
Seattle 2.05 – Home MIN WPG
Arizona 2.66 – Away NYI NJD NYR
Chicago 2.74 – Away LAK ANA – Home CAR
Saturday, November 10th to Wednesday, November 16th, 2022
Best Bets
Ottawa 4.19 – Away NJD PHI – Home NYI BUF
Los Angeles 4.12 – Away CGY EDM – Home CHI DET
St. Louis 4.10 – Away VGK COL CHI – Home SJS
Philadelphia 4 – Away CBJ CBJ – Home OTT DAL
Buffalo 3.94 – Away OTT – Home VGK BOS VAN
 
Steer Clear
Winnipeg 1.85 – Away CGY SEA
Seattle 2.05 – Home MIN WPG
Florida 2.10 – Home EDM WSH
Montreal 2.15 – Home PIT NJD
Anaheim 2.36 – Home CHI DET

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Mar 28 - 19:03 OTT vs CHI
Mar 28 - 19:03 TOR vs WSH
Mar 28 - 19:03 MTL vs PHI
Mar 28 - 19:03 PIT vs CBJ
Mar 28 - 19:03 FLA vs NYI
Mar 28 - 19:03 CAR vs DET
Mar 28 - 20:03 MIN vs S.J
Mar 28 - 20:03 STL vs CGY
Mar 28 - 20:03 WPG vs VGK
Mar 28 - 21:03 EDM vs L.A
Mar 28 - 21:03 COL vs NYR
Mar 28 - 22:03 SEA vs ANA
Mar 28 - 22:03 VAN vs DAL
Mar 28 - 22:03 ARI vs NSH

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