We have reached the one-month mark of the season. With St. Louis finally playing their 10^th game of the 2022-23 campaign on Monday night, every franchise has reached the double-digit mark in games played. It is no longer early as we are settling into the rhythm of the season and teams/players start falling into their expected ranges for the year. There are some stats and predicted outcomes that will shift, and players will rebound or regress, but most players shouldn't vary too much from what they've shown to be capable of in the league's first four-plus weeks.

As I like to do every couple weeks, let's take a look at some numbers from across the league. We are going to take a gander at teams, players, lines, whatever is of interest. Data will be taken from our Frozen Tools or Natural Stat Trick, unless otherwise indicated.

New Jersey Devils

In my estimation, other than maybe the Boston Bruins and what they've done without Brad Marchand for a few weeks and still without Charlie McAvoy, the biggest news story in the Eastern Conference is the New Jersey Devils. As we sit on Monday afternoon, the Devils lead the Metro Division, are tied with the Bruins for most regulation/overtime wins in the East, and have reeled off six straight wins. There were a few easy games in there but they also shutout Colorado and beat both Alberta teams on the road. On the year, the team has an expected goal share over 65%, leading the entire league in both expected goals for and expected goals against per minute at 5-on-5. That has translated to the fourth-highest 5-on-5 goal share, trailing only Dallas, Vegas, and Colorado.

The kicker out of all of this: New Jersey's goaltending is bottom-5 in the league at 5-on-5. That they are doing so well at limiting chances against is what is keeping goals against in check. There are a few reasons for all this, and I'll try to get through it as quickly as possible.

First, the blue line has been excellent. Jonas Siegenthaler has kept up his typically excellent defense while adding a bit of offense to his profile, which is helping the team a lot at both ends. John Marino hasn't been as good offensively by Evolving Hockey impacts, but he's been dynamic for them defensively while still pacing for 40 points. With a healthy Dougie Hamilton and a continually reliable Damon Severson, their blue line has rounded into one that can be very impactful at both ends.

Second, the center duo of Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier are rounding into one of the top center duos in the league. They are not yet in the McDavid/Draisaitl tier, and Crosby/Malkin are still doing tremendous things for Pittsburgh, but they're knocking on the door. Both are 88^th percentile or higher by the aforementioned EH impacts, with Hughes near the top of the league. Both are at least sitting at a point per game and that's with Hughes shooting less than half his rate from a year ago. Add in a rebound performance from Tomas Tatar with Erik Haula adding lineup versatility, and there has been great contributions across the board in the top-6.

Finally, there is Jesper Bratt. The winger has 17 points in 12 games, tying other wingers like Matthew Tkachuk and Martin Necas (whom we'll get to in a bit). The team creates 45 scoring chances per 60 minutes when he's on the ice, fifth among all regular forwards. Along with Tatar, Bratt is providing excellent two-way play but is also incredibly productive.

The Devils have a chance to be one of the most dominant regular season teams in the analytics era if their goaltending can even be league average. It is an exciting time for Devils fans and fantasy owners should be pleased with most of the skater outcomes this year.

Vegas Golden Knights

My expectation was that the Golden Knights could be a bubble playoff team in 2022-23, so long as key guys like Jack Eichel and Mark Stone stayed healthy. To this point, they look much more than just a bubble playoff team: their 11 wins, all regulation/overtime victories, lead the league, ranking first in points percentage. They are third in the league in expected goal share at 5-on-5 (the only team other than New Jersey and Carolina above 60%), and third in goal share. Not only do they look destined for the playoffs, but they look like genuine Cup contenders in a topsy-turvy Western Conference.

The big story is obviously Logan Thompson. Injuries to Robin Lehner and Laurent Brossoit forced the 25-year-old into a starting role with just 20 NHL games of experience. To date, he's posted a .934 save percentage, fifth among all goalies with at least five starts. Keeping up anywhere close to this level will make Vegas a force in the West.

Eichel's resurgence is also a big story here. He has 14 points in 13 games and is now skating more per night with Stone on his right wing. Last year, the team controlled 51.1% of the expected goals and scored 2.7 actual goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 with Eichel on the ice. This year, those numbers are 67.7% and 3.9 actual goals. With the Misfits line providing secondary scoring, Eichel-Stone are proving a formidable top duo.

Staying healthy has been big for this team. Five of their defensemen have played every game thus far, as has every forward in their top-6. Jonathan Marchessault talked recently about the team returning to its hard-working roots from their first year in existence and it's hard to argue with the results thus far.

Florida's Third Line

One concern in Florida was the depth they lost to acquire Matthew Tkachuk. Add in Mason Marchment signing in Dallas with Anthony Duclair suffering a serious Achilles injury, and the depth would be tested. Florida's third line was great for them last year and a big reason why they were a top regular-season team. How would that line fare with Marchment gone, Duclair injured, and Sam Reinhart playing in the top-6? Just fine, thank you.

In 100 minutes together at 5-on-5, Anton Lundell and Eetu Luostarainen have helped the Panthers control over 68% of the expected goals and nearly 90% of the actual goals. With that duo on the ice, Florida is scoring 4.9 goals per 60 minutes, in the neighbourhood of Edmonton's second line and the Vegas top line we just discussed. Luostarainen has seven points at 5-on-5 this year, more than Aleksander Barkov.

Florida's top line has been excellent but a bit snake-bitten with Barkov/Tkachuk shooting a combined 6.5%. The second line has laboured to score without Tkachuk as Reinhart is also struggling to find the back of the net, tallying his first two goals of the season on Sunday night. The third line, though, has been both controlling and productive, providing a cushion that should only improve when the team gets Duclair back and they can balance the lineup even further.

Dylan Larkin

Everyone who had Detroit tied with Toronto and ahead of Tampa Bay in points after four weeks, raise your hand. Glancing around quickly, I don't see any hands.

We should recognize Ville Husso, who looks like he should be the sure-fire starter from here on out, and his .941 save percentage across seven starts. He has just one regulation loss in those games. Husso has been excellent.

We also need to recognize Dylan Larkin. Even though he had Tyler Bertuzzi for just 1 ½ games, he has 15 points in 12 contests, and is pacing for a 40-goal season. Husso and Larkin are keeping the team afloat as they wait for Bertuzzi, Jakub Vrana, Robby Fabbri, and Filip Zadina to return to the lineup, whenever they're able. On the downside, there are some red flags for Larkin's performance.

To begin, the 18.8% shooting sticks out. Last year was a career-high at 14.6% and his four-year average was 10.6%. Only half his goals have come at 5-on-5, where he's sporting a career-worst shot attempt rate. That rate is down nearly 30% from last year and in turn, his shots per game have declined. If he can't keep converting over 15% of his shots, or he doesn't start shooting more, those goals are going to dry up significantly.

There are also a bevy of secondary assists at 5-on-5, which can be random for forwards. His 1.51 second assists/60 minutes at 5-on-5 is over triple his rate from last year and he's put up half as many such assists (4) in 12 games as he did last year (8) in 71 games. Once that starts to regress, more points/game decline is coming. Maybe the returning wingers will help but that may not be for a month or more yet. Just be wary here of his hot start.

Ok let's touch on a few other spots in quicker fashion.

Martin Necas

Last year, Necas didn't post his 17^th point until the team's 26^th game. This year, he did it in 11 games. One issue with his 2021-22 season is that he had some strong micro stats, as tracked by Corey Sznajder, but struggled to create scoring chances for himself:

That has completely changed this year as he's flirting with the 90^th percentile in individual scoring chances across all regular forwards. His top power-play usage has also led to more PPPs in 12 games (5) than he had all of last year in 78 games (4). There are some signs of regression, but Necas is a real threat to be a point-per-game forward (or more) if he keeps this level of play and role on the team.

Matias Maccelli

There may not be much to talk about in Arizona in a positive manner, at least not the on-ice product, but rookie Matias Maccelli does have seven assists in 11 games. As a 21-year-old rookie in the AHL last year, he had 43 assists in 57 games, so it appears he's translated his playmaking ability to the NHL.

Two concerns come to the forefront when looking at his numbers. First, he has just four shots on goal in 11 games. He has more power-play assists than he does total shots. Maccelli's shot attempt rate at 5-on-5 is 322^nd out of 324 regular forwards in the NHL. It is really hard to have much fantasy value as a forward shooting like a third-pair defenseman. Secondly is that assist rate on the power play. He leads all regular forwards in assists per 60 minutes with the man advantage. That will not persist. It is a good start to his rookie year, but I think we've seen the peak of his fantasy value unless the team improve significantly over the next five months, or Maccelli starts earning much more ice time.

Erik Karlsson

We can't talk about the first month of the season without discussing Erik Karlsson. The only players with more points on the season are Edmonton's centre duo and Nikita Kucherov, and the only player with more goals is McDavid himself. He has been an absolute monster in the fantasy game. Obviously, he won't shoot over 20% and that will decline significantly but there are good signs here.

The 32-year-old defenseman is managing a four-year high in shot attempts per minute, and the last time he was this high, he managed over three shots per game. The team's on-ice expected goal rate with Karlsson is over 3.0 per 60 minutes, also a four-year high. If the team starts finishing more, Karlsson could still see high levels of production even as his goals fall off. Let's just hope he stays healthy.

Carter Hart

Finally, we have to review perhaps the most surprising start for any player in the league. Hart is second only to Jake Oettinger in save percentage (.946) and leads the league in high-danger save percentage at 5-on-5. He has yet to suffer a regulation loss and just one of his eight starts resulted in a save percentage under .933. He has been spectacular and the reason the Flyers have been off to such a good start.

Whether this persists is very unlikely. Igor Shesterkin's 2021-22 season was one of the best in modern NHL history and his save percentage (.935) would represent a decline from what Hart has done. All the same, fantasy owners have to be very happy with what he's done.

Philadelphia is one of the worst teams defensively by expected goals and shots allowed, shown visually by Hockey Viz:

If Hart can't be great-to-elite, his numbers could get ugly in a hurry. With that said, goaltending is random enough that him posting a .920 save percentage from here on out is plausible and would make him one of the best value draft picks of the season.

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We got a Josh Norris injury update:

Josh Norris met with five doctors. No surgery. Different injury. Will know more in New Year about possible return. #Sens

— Bruce Garrioch (@SunGarrioch) November 7, 2022

That he may not be out all season is an upgrade from where we thought he may end up. There is still a long road before returning to NHL action but let's just hope the next couple months of recovery go smoothly.

Relatedly, Derick Brassard was moved back up to second-line centre in practice with Shane Pinto back to the third line.

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It is Vitek Vanecek’s net in New Jersey until further notice:

Mackenzie Blackwood has been diagnosed with a knee injury, a sprained MCL, #NJDevils Lindy Ruff announces.

Blackwood will meet with doctors tomorrow.

— Amanda Stein (@amandacstein) November 7, 2022

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Buffalo has nuked their lines following a pair of losses to Carolina and Tampa Bay:

New look to the lines today:

Mittelstadt-Thompson-Peterka
Skinner-Cozens-Tuch
Asplund-Krebs-Olofsson
Quinn-Girgensons-Okposo/Hinostroza

Defense pairs rotated.

— Heather Engel (@engelheather) November 7, 2022

Great news for Dylan Cozens, I suppose.

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Brandon Saad returned to the St. Louis lineup on Monday night, skating on the top line with Ryan O'Reilly.

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Brock Boeser was on the top line alongside J.T. Miller in Canucks practice on Monday afternoon. Vancouver has four games in the Eastern Conference this week with a couple good matchups, so check the wire in case someone was forced to drop Boeser. It will be interesting to see if he gets the PP1 role back from Andrei Kuzmenko or not.

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After starting slow and falling down 3-1 to the Calgary Flames, the New York Islanders got goals from Anders Lee and Kyle Palmieri a minute apart in the third period to push us to overtime. Ilya Sorokin kept the team in the game through regulation, saving 43 of 46 overall, then Noah Dobson slammed home a power-play goal in overtime to give the Islanders the comeback win. Dobson is now up to nine points in 13 games, picking up where he left off last year.

Mat Barzal is still goalless, but a trio of helpers brings him over a point per game on the year. Imagine what his production will look like when he's not shooting 0%!

A game after being benched and playing under 12 minutes, Mikael Backlund scored twice for Calgary, giving him five on the season through 11 games. He is up to 37 shots in 11 contests which is not something he's generally known for. It'll be curious to see if he can keep up this career-high shot rate.

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Power play goals from Jake DeBrusk and Patrice Bergeron were all the Boston Bruins needed in their win over the St. Louis Blues, though Trent Frederic added late insurance in the 3-1 victory. David Pastrnak had an assist in five shots one game after seeing his six-game point streak snapped. Perhaps the start of another?

Brad Marchand had a pair of power-play assists and he's up to seven points in five games since returning from injury. It seems he's getting along just fine.

St. Louis got a goal from Brayden Schenn as he maintains his point-per-game pace through 10 games. He also has exactly 10 shots on goal which is very worrisome.