Ramblings: Blues and ROR Struggling; Injury Replacements; McDavid’s Scoring & More (Nov 9)
Alexander MacLean
2022-11-09
The Devils won their seventh straight, and it is really looking like they are going to be one of the teams to beat come playoff time in the East. Vitek Vanecek looks to be taking over in the crease, Dougie Hamilton's revival is in full swing with 10 points in 13 games (but he's still no Erik Karlsson), and the Devils forwards have been fantastic. Nico Hischier is going to get a lot of fanfare for the Selke this season.
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Speaking of Selke candidates, Ryan O'Reilly has really dropped off this season, and we didn't really see it coming from him or the Blues. They lost bad to the Flyers last night, though ROR did score his second of the season. He's shooting more than he has in the last four years, but the concerning thing is that his faceoff percentage has dropped drastically. It hasn't been below 56% in the last eight years, but it's now all the way down under 52%. I do tend to find that for centres, their faceoff percentage is a great indicator of whether there is something to actually be concerned about or not. If a player's faceoff numbers are still fine, but they're slumping, they bounce back fast. Unfortunately for ROR, that's not the case now. Instead, it looks like the sign of a player that is either losing some reaction time, or battling through an injury. Either way, that's not a good thing for his outlook for the rest of the year. His ice time is down nearly three minutes per game from just two years ago, and we could see it drop further as the year goes on.
Give the extra ice time to the youngsters like Robert Thomas, and have them be the driving force in the turnaround. The team is too good not to bounce back to some degree, but there doesn't appear to be a playoff spot in the cards this year.
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Michael Bunting was shifted down the lineup for last night's game. This is why it's tough investing in players who are not the drivers on the line, because their values can really fluctuate when the team needs to shake things up. However, as we know Bunting has had success in the past with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, so it shouldn't be too long before he gets cycled up there again. Give it a day or two for the news to cycle through to your Bunting owner and for him to start to worry, then pitch an offer.
On that note, for those of you thinking you should plug top-line Nikita Soshnikov into your lineups in the extreme short-term, as he did start the game on the top line for the Isles. He ended up playing less than 10 minutes last night. In that time, he did at least add two shots and two hits. He's a pass for me. There are a few better options I'll touch on shortly.
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As a great add for both the short and long-term, Mattias Maccelli is someone that has flown a little under the radar for me, but I pulled the trigger and added him in two leagues yesterday. He's now up to nine points in 12 games, with six of them coming with the man-advantage. His plus-minus (and general lack of peripherals) might be a negative in leagues that count the extra stats, but in most cases if you're scoring then it can be covered off anyways.
Overall, his underlying numbers don't look very out of line, and if anything, he could be getting some better opportunities than currently provided as he starts 37% of his shifts in the offensive zone. The 22-year-old is also not yet seeing top-line exposure, but if he keeps it up then it wouldn't be too surprising to see him get the sheltered offensive minutes alongside top-of-the-lineup players like Clayton Keller.
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A few notable injury notes that I think it's worth catching up on:
Just speculation on my part, but Nikita Kucherov took a heavy slash on his bare wrist, and left the game in considerable pain. I wouldn't be surprised if he missed a bit of time. Don't do anything drastic yet, but have a backup plan ready.
John Carlson and Dmitry Orlov were both skating today which is a good indication that they'll be considered to rejoin the lineup for tonight's game.
Rasmus Dahlin returned for Buffalo last night, and hopefully you got him into your lineups as he notched a power play assist and added three shots. He also led the team in ice time, and it wasn't even a close race, as he finished with over 27 minutes. He’s just fine.
Tyler Bertuzzi's timeline has him about seven to 10 days away. Check in now to see if his owner is struggling or impatient.
Jonathan Huberdeau is day-to-day with an injury, and it seemed like a late scratch. Rather than filling in for him at the bottom of the lineup, and shifting everyone else up, Adam Ruzicka got plugged into Huberdeau's spot on the top line. He's someone that was completely off the fantasy radar in one-year leagues, but he should be on it now. He notched a power play assist, and at even strength he held his own:
Aaron Ekblad is projected to return on Saturday. We do need to note though that the Carolina v Florida game on Wednesday could be affected by tropical storm Nicole as it is anticipated to strengthen to a category one hurricane before making landfall today. Most importantly, hopefully everyone stays safe – secondarily, if you're making waiver adds for the week, maybe avoid Florida and Carolina.
Speaking of the Hurricanes, if you are in need of a goalie, then check and see if Anti Raanta is available in your league. Fredrik Andersen left practice on Tuesday with an undisclosed injury, and with his history it could be anywhere from a few days to a few months. If Raanta has to fill in as the de-facto starter for any length of time, then he's probably a top-15 goalie to own during that period.
Lastly, I won't show the video with the blood, but Evander Kane had his wrist cut by Patrick Maroon's skate. It's hopefully just superficial, but it could be some significant time missed.
The Oilers started the game with 11 forwards and seven defencemen though, so take the lines with a big grain of salt at this point since they were a bit all over the place after Kane left. That being said, we should see both Jesse Puljujarvi and Kailer Yamamoto stick in the top-six while Kane is out.
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On the McDavid topic, he potted another goal and assist last night, putting him up to 14 goals in 14 games. It's fun to see the great players add new elements to their games, and continue to evolve in their dominance. Sidney Crosby had a similar period a few years into his career, when he started shooting more (peaking at 3.9 per game), and suddenly became a Rocket Richard contender. McDavid is doing the same thing, up to 3.9 shots per game both this season and last. The difference this year though is that he's shooting 25%. Crosby in his peak year shot 20%, and McDavid last year shot 14%, which is close to his career average of 15%. At best, McDavid plays 82 games, shoots 3.9 times per game, and scores on 20% of them, which would put him at 80 goals. At worst, he tails off to his career average shooting percentage, and the volume drops a bit, putting him into 50-goal territory. If he's healthy all season though, I would be surprised if he didn't at least hit 60.
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Something to consider for those of you with prospect drafts, minors systems, or whose teams are looking more in a youth direction. The simple advice is bet on talent, regardless of other narratives such as injury issues, "laziness", and being "selfish".
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Vincent Trocheck should buy Scott Mayfield a nice dinner here after Mayfield knocked the puck out of Semyon Varlamov's glove and right to Trocheck.
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You can find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.
See you next Wednesday!