Ramblings: Nick Perbix, Matej Blumel, Kahkonen’s Outlook, Ovechkin and more … (Nov. 14)
Dobber
2022-11-14
I hope you have Matej Blumel on your radar. The 22-year-old has made a strong transition to North American hockey when he followed up a good training camp with 11 points in his first nine AHL games. It was enough to earn an early recall to the big club and so far he's fitting in on a line with Tyler Seguin and Mason Marchment. Yeah. For now, he's stolen the spot from Denis Gurianov, who is sidelined with a UBI (but let's be honest – Gurianov was on his way to the press box anyway). So far, the line with Blumel on it has outperformed the line with Gurianov on it. Yes, a fourth-round pick in 2019 is doing better than the 12th overall pick from 2015. Blumel has one goal, scored Sunday, on three shots in two games so far.
Blumel jumped 233 spots in my monthly Prospect Rankings.
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New feature added to Frozen Tools: a Hot/Cold report by team. I find this very handy for DFS purposes especially, but also leagues that require daily or weekly lineups. It captures teams scoring a ton (in the "hot" section) and teams holding down the goals allowed (also in the "hot" section in another chart. Hottest scoring team right now are the Avalanche, averaging 4.8 goals per game lately while the stingiest is the Wild, giving up two goals in four games heading into Sunday. In the cold section, the Wild haven't been scoring, while the other section shows Columbus coughing up goals like nobody's business. Find that handy report here.
The Stars appear in this report in the "hot" section, scoring right now like gangbusters. Dallas and New Jersey are the latest teams that seem to have ascended. Dallas is the bigger surprise because, while they have both Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz on the rise, we are seeing players like Blumel, Ty Dellandrea and Wyatt Johnson emerge. But it's Robertson who is looking more and more like a 100-point player – and that will turn any eighth/ninth playoff-bubble team into a fourth/fifth Cup contender just like that. Well, that and Jake Oettinger, who is emerging as the most reliable fantasy goaltender this side of Shesterkin.
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Speaking of Robertson, he has 15 points in his last seven games. Not only that, but he has 37 SOG in his last six games, which is more than six per game. That's not a typo. Six!
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With James van Riemsdyk, Sean Couturier and Cam Atkinson each sidelined (i.e. an entire scoring line), the Flyers are struggling both to score and to stop pucks. It's killing the value of the likes of Kevin Hayes, Ivan Provorov and Tony DeAngelo. All of those players would do better with improved talent around them. And Carter Hart and Travis Konecny are each in danger of lost value soon. At this point you should consider selling while the value is still good.
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Circling back to the Wild – two goals given up in four games heading into Sunday, and they're also on the cold list thanks to lack of scoring. True to form, Sunday led to a 3-2 shootout decision (a loss). So again they give up fewer than three while also scoring fewer than three. Kaprizov should still hit 100 points this season, but you have to wonder how well he would do under a more freewheeling system: 130? 140?
If the Wild score, it is one of four forwards: Kaprizov, Mats Zuccarello, Matt Boldy or Joel Eriksson Ek. After that we go down to Mason Shaw, on pace for 40 points. Until Marco Rossi figures out the league – and he will – this is the way things will be with this team. Very little fantasy interest beyond those players and Calen Addison (who is slowing down already, as rookies tend to do).
Kaapo Kahkonen will figure things out as soon as he gets to put together a string of starts. Given that James Reimer gets injured every few weeks, that time will come. Right now Riemer is lights-out so Kahkonen will be making each of his starts after a long layoff for now.
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Filip Gustavsson has quietly put together three consecutive Quality Starts.
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So far Hampus Lindholm seems to be doing just fine with Charlie MacAvoy in the lineup. He picked up three apples on Sunday and McAvoy added one. Lindholm is back over a point-per-game average 16 games into the season. And who got the top PP unit duties? Well – neither of them, if you can believe it. The Bruins rolled out five forwards on their top unit, while Lindholm/McAvoy partnered up for the second unit.
Left out in the cold is Matt Grzelcyk, who had four points in nine games prior to McAvoy's return and is pointless in three since. Lindholm obviously scooped his job. Grzelcyk has had plenty of time to establish himself as a No.2 offensive option back there.
Lots of penalties in that game, kickstarted by this:
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After eight points in his first seven games, David Krejci has managed just one in his last six. The 36-year-old is coming off a full season playing overseas in Czechia.
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Former Leafs press-boxers Nick Ritchie and Travis Boyd saw 7:37 and 7:50 respective PP time on Sunday, each grabbing a PP point. As things stand, and it's early, but they are on pace for 32 and 27 PPPts. But when Nick Schmaltz returns (likely around Christmas), both will see a reduction in PP time – but likely one more than the other (my money is on Boyd taking the bigger hit, as they like Ritchie's size)
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I hope you've noticed Nick Perbix by now. Throughout last week I added him to my DFS lineup because his value is so low and his production relative to that has been good – and getting better by the day. Another two points Sunday give him points in four straight. No PP time, but decent enough shot volume and BLKS upside. Consider him a potential Gustav Forsling for now – and being as he's new, there both upside and downside. He has moved up the Defensemen Prospect Rankings that will be posted within the next day or so.
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With just one point since returning to the lineup four games ago, Hedman was taken off the first PP unit. Although he was held off the scoresheet, he did manage five shots on goal. He may not get that top PP spot back for next game, either. Because Mikhail Sergachev had himself a four-point night, with two on the power play. For now, Sergachev is gonna take this thing. But we're talking about Hedman here. When he gets it going, he'll take it back soon enough. Whether that's next week or next month, who can be sure? But it probably won't happen within the next couple of games, making Sergachev a great own for the coming week.
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Alex Ovechkin saw over 21 minutes of power-play time in the last two games. Two games. And came up empty. He's currently on a full-season pace of 68 points, and while I think he finished higher than that (mid-70s I'm thinking), I think he does so only because of his Golden Boy status. If he saw the PP time and ice time of a normal star in this league, he'd finish with 10 fewer points than will actually be the case. And with Tom Wilson possibly back by early January, that will be the likely time when Ovechkin gets rolling up to that 75- or 80-point pace again. In the meantime, I would bank on more of the same.
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Cutting it short this week, as I am under the weather and seem to be getting worse as the night goes on.
See you next Monday!