Looking Ahead: Time To Move On From Laine?

Andrew Santillo

2022-11-18

Ah, Friday is here and it's time to watch some hockey. Let's gather everyone around the TV for…yep, one game. NHL scheduling. Buddy. Pal We're right in the thick of a stretch of lopsided slates, but let's see if we can't help swing a matchup or two. Let's dive in!

The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use him for the next several days)

Filip Gustavsson, G, Minnesota Wild (Rostered in 2% of ESPN leagues, 31% Fantrax, 17% Yahoo)
– We got some tough news out of the Wild's practice earlier this week concerning starting goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury, which is tough for those who roster him in fantasy. Replacing him could make for an interesting pivot.

I can't say I follow Minnesota Wild morning skate or optional skates too closely, but when Wild head coach Dean Evason spoke with the media on Wednesday, he informed us that Marc-Andre Fleury is dealing with an upper-body injury and that he doesn't know at this time just how long Fleury will be sidelined for. This is troubling news for the 37-year-old netminder, but it does give us an opportunity in fantasy to potentially get some starts in net with a lower rostered option in now-starter Gustavsson.

It's next man up when it comes to injuries. Last week I wrote up Antti Raanta (even though Pyotr Kochetkov has looked good in Carolina). This week we can turn to Gustavsson, who hasn't been horrible for a backup goalie (1-3-1, 2.81 GAA, .914 SV% entering Thursday's action).

Fleury got off to a slow start at the beginning of this season, but both him and the Wild were starting to turn it around some here in the past week or so. I think Gustavsson might be a slight step down, but with the fantasy goalie landscape being as it is this season, being able to plug and play a goaltender is a big relief with not needing to worry about if someone is starting or not on a given night. Gustavsson will be tested coming up with Carolina, Winnipeg, and Toronto on the schedule, but Minnesota will be on home ice where the past couple of seasons they have been significantly better than on the road. With no timetable set for Fleury, I think Gustavsson could help your fantasy squads going ahead.

The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)

Kirby Dach, C/RW, Montreal Canadiens (Rostered in 23% of ESPN leagues, 70% Fantrax, 45% Yahoo)
– Hello darkness, my old friend. I say that because I'm a Hawks fan that's in a group chat (of course we named it Hawk Talk) where the 2019 draft comes up almost monthly, along with the recent conversation that if the club actually had an NHL head coach the previous three seasons, Dach could have been what we're seeing now in Montreal. Sigh…at least they drafted his brother Colton, who is in Kelowna of the WHL right now.

Any who, where was I? Oh yes, Dach, who the Hawks selected third in the 2019 NHL draft. He plays for Montreal now and just going over the roster numbers here, he's beginning to come off waivers in a significant number of leagues and for good reason. Kirby started the season floating around the Habs lines but over the past two weeks of games Dach has been skating along the MTL top line along with Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield and the line has been very good together, both offensively and defensively. Last week the line was at 2.1 goals against per 60 minutes. That is now up to 2.24, but that's still a good number to be at and on the offensive side of things this line has scored 10 goals on 41 shots in just under 100 minutes played together with Dach playing outstanding with 11 points in the past eight games played.

I think there's two contributing factors here that has led to Dach starting to really be a productive NHL player, first of which is the situation that he's now in and second would be just how the Habs are using him. During his time in Chicago, he primarily played center where he never could truly use his length up the middle of the ice, partially because he was only winning around 30% of his draws in the dot. In Montreal however, the club plays him at the wing giving him fewer moving parts to worry about on the ice and being able to contribute more on both ends of the ice. With all of his advanced stats at now career highs, it makes Dach a worthwhile addition to your fantasy lineup.

The Odd Man Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)

Brandon Montour, D, Florida Panthers (Rostered in 76% of ESPN leagues, 88% of Fantrax, 85% Yahoo)
– Those who were able to claim Montour while Aaron Ekblad was out with injury got an excellent boost to their lineups. The time has now come for him to return back to his old role on the club with Ekblad now healthy.

In fantasy it's always great to have the replacement player due to an injury that not only plays big minutes but contributes as well. When the Panthers lost Ekblad to injury back on October 19, Montour saw top pair minutes along with quarterbacking Florida's top power-play unit when the team wasn't going with a five-forward power play. In that time the numbers were good with 40 shots on goal along with 14 points. Those numbers made him a great play in fantasy and DFS, but with Ekblad now back and healthy his role has shifted back slightly.

Montour is still top defensive pairing which is great, ice time hasn't really taken much of a step back, and even though Florida shuffles their top power-play unit frequently, he is still seeing some time on the top group. The odd-man out situation comes into play if the Panthers go back to using just Ekblad on the power play and potentially moving Montour down on the defensive groupings. This is something to watch out for in the games to come on just how Florida is using him at even strength and on the man advantage. If there's a trade to be made with him in fantasy now just may be the time to pull the trigger on it.

The Anchors (They’ll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)

Patrik Laine, LW/RW, Columbus Blue Jackets (Rostered in 87% of ESPN leagues, 87% Fantrax, 78% Yahoo)
– For all those wringing their hands over the multitude of Columbus injuries and how this will impact their season I have to give shout some truth at you here. Columbus wasn't a good team before all of the injuries started to pile up, and those who took a chance at Laine in fantasy may need to walk away.

Look, I know how good of a shot Laine has but this is a player I have just never been high on in fantasy, and now with him out for at least three to four weeks with a sprained ankle, I think it's a get out of jail free card so to speak to move on from rostering him. It's just the same story every night. The NHL tweets out whatever he's wearing to the rink, then three hours later he's left off the scoresheet with three shots on goal and a dash-2.

I get the optimism coming in. With newly acquired winger Johnny Gaudreau, maybe this is a good tandem to have a piece of in fantasy. The issue even before the injury was that Laine brings almost zero defensively dropping his offensive zone starts and for fantasy doesn't really bring any peripherals if he's not generating offense. Four points in eight games on the season is far from a good start. If you have room on you IR and want to hang onto him, you can, but if injuries are beginning to mount for your club or you have limited IR space, I think this is the right time to move on from Laine. 

Love ‘Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)

This period runs through November 18th to November 30th

Nashville – The Preds grade out well for us looking forward and although they have been just average at 5-5-0 in their last ten games played three games at home next week with Arizona and Columbus on the schedule makes them a Love 'Em.

Dallas
– The Stars have looked great the past two weeks, tied first in the NHL in goals for with 18. With starting goaltender Jake Oettinger back and healthy, they are a Love 'Em for me starting a five-game homestand this weekend.

Vegas
– Vegas has sort of fallen back into them always being somewhat favorable. Four games next week with three on home ice should give the Vegas top line ample opportunities to come away with plenty of scoring chances.

Leave ‘Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)

Edmonton
– Another down week for the Oilers. They'll be on the road upcoming versus both New Yorks and New Jersey. Although the travel between those clubs is minimal, it never grades out great with the competition they'll see.

Tampa Bay
– The Bolts have two games next week and that's always an issue for a club that has higher roster numbers up and down their lineup and in net as well.

Boston
– The eye test backs up their record. I think there's a strong case here that the B's are the best club in hockey, as they cycle the puck excellent, and their zone entries have been great as well. Issue for them upcoming is two games on the road in Florida versus the Panthers and Bolts before coming home to face the Hurricanes is a difficult stretch of games, they'll be tested here coming up.

Friday, November 18th to Thursday, November 24th, 2022
Best Bets
Columbus 3.36 – Home DET FLA MTL
St. Louis 3.36 – Away BUF – Home ANA ANA
Montreal 3.31 – Away CBJ – Home PHI BUF
Nashville 3.20 – Away DET – Home TBL ARI
Ottawa 3.15 – Away SJS VGK – Home NJD
 
Steer Clear
Arizona 1.66 – Away NSH CAR
Tampa bay – Away NSH – Home BOS
Minnesota 1.89 – Home CAR WPG
Detroit 1.95 – Away CBJ – Away NSH
Seattle 2.10 – Home LAK SJS
Saturday, November 19th to Friday, November 25th, 2022
Best Bets
Montreal 4.45 – Away CBJ CHI – Home PHI BUF
Columbus 4.25 – Home DET FLA MTL NYI
Buffalo 4.24 – Away TOR MTL – Home STL NJD
St. Louis 4.21 – Away BUF TBL – Home ANA ANA
Ottawa 4.20 – Away SJS VGK ANA – Home NJD
 
Steer Clear
Vancouver 1.91 – Away COL – Home VGK
Arizona 2.66 – Away NSH CAR DET
Florida 2.79 – Away CBJ – Home CGY BOS
Tampa Bay 2.85 – Away NSH – Home BOS STL
Edmonton 2.90 – Away NJD NYI – Home VGK
Sunday, November 20th to Saturday, November 26th, 2022
Best Bets
Nashville 4.25 – Away DET – Home ARI COL CBJ
New Jersey – Away BUF – Home EDM TOR WSH
Pittsburgh 4.18 – Away CHI PHI – Home CGY TOR
NY Islanders 4.16 – Away TOR CBJ – Home EDM PHI
Dallas 4.11 – Away COL – Home COL CHI WPG
 
Steer Clear
Los Angeles 1.94 – Away SJS – Home NYR
Tampa Bay 1.94 – Home BOS STL
Minnesota 2.10 – Home WPG TOR
Seattle 2.11 – Away VGK – Home SJS
Detroit 2.26 – Home NSH ARI
Monday, November 21st to Sunday, November 27th, 2022
Best Bets
Nashville 4.25 – Away DET – Home ARI COL CBJ
New Jersey 4.20 – Away BUF – Home EDM TOR WSH
NY Islanders 4.16 – Away TOR CBJ – Home EDM PHI
Dallas 4.11 – Away COL – Home COL CHI WPG
Vegas 4.06 – Away VAN – Home OTT SEA VAN
 
Steer Clear
Florida 1.94 – Home BOS STL
Tampa Bay 1.94 – Home BOS STL
Detroit 2.26 – Home NSH ARI
Boston 2.60 – Away TBL FLA – Home CAR
Edmonton 2.66 – Away NJD NYI NYR
Tuesday, November 22nd to Monday, November 28th, 2022
Best Bets
Buffalo 4.24 – Away MTL – Home STL NJD TBL
Vegas 4.15 – Away CBJ – Home OTT SEA VAN
NY Rangers 4.11 – Away LAK ANA – Home EDM NJD
Columbus 4.11 – Away NSH – Home MTL NYI VGK
Dallas 4.07 – Away COL STL – Home CHI WPG
 
Steer Clear
Boston 1.74 – Away FLA – Home CAR
Tampa Bay 2.04 – Away BUF – Home STL
Calgary 2.61 – Away PIT WSH CAR
Edmonton 2.61 – Away NYI NYR – Home FLA
Arizona 2.66 – Away CAR DET MIN
Friday, November 23rd to Tuesday, November 29th, 2022
Best Bets
NY Islanders 4.30 – Away CBJ PHI – Home EDM PHI
Vegas 4.15 – Away CBJ – Home OTT SEA VAN
Nashville 4.15 – Away DET – Home COL CBJ ANA
Columbus 4.11 – Away NSH – Home MTL NYI VGK
San Jose 4.08 – Away SEA MTL – Home LAK VAN
 
Steer Clear
Edmonton 2.61 – Away NYI NYR – Home FLA
Arizona 2.66 – Away CAR DET MIN
Boston 2.69 – Away FLA – Home CAR TBL
Ottawa 2.85 – Away VGK ANA LAK
Tampa Bay 2.90 – Away BUF BOS – Home STL
Saturday, November 24th to Wednesday, November 30th, 2022
Best Bets
San Jose 3.98 – Away MTL TOR – Home LAK VAN
Toronto 3.96 – Away MIN PIT DET – Home SJS
Detroit 3.47 – Home ARI TOR BUF
Chicago 3.36 – Home MTL WPG EDM
Los Angeles 3.30 – Away SJS – Home OTT SEA
 
Steer Clear
Boston 1.79 – Home CAR TBL
Arizona 1.90 – Away DET MIN
Montreal 2.30 – Away CHI – Home SJS
Minnesota 2.31 – Home TOR ARI
Carolina 2.65 – Away BOS PIT – Home CGY

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One Comment

  1. jasonkent24 2022-11-19 at 08:49

    Laine is actually good in peripherals (at least the ones that are tracked in my league.) He’s at a hit a game, .75 blocks a game and 3.6 shots a game.

    Looking under the hood, he’s due for some positive regression. 6.8% 5v5 sh%, 50% IPP, 0 secondary assists, and a personal 6.9% shooting avg (which is less than half of his career % of 14.9.

    His TOI is actually up by over a minute from last year. Factor in that he hasn’t really had time to gel with Gaudreau, he’s a hold for me, although injuries are a concern.

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