I'll be posting the updated salary cap keeper rankings on the 25^th (skaters) and 26^th (goalies), so keep an eye out for those. Even with Moritz Seider's slow start, he's still holding off Trevor Zegras for the top spot in the rankings this month. The value you're getting for an offensive Dman with his upside on a rookie contract – not just this year, but for next year too – is irreplaceable. No matter what he signs for on his next deal, it will be worth it. If he was eligible to sign an extension today to kick in next summer, it would be projected at $6.2 million per year. That is only going to rise as he gets closer to his entry level deal expiring.

I like Aaron Ekblad and his mega-deal coming off his entry-level contract as a comparable. Ekblad was a top-pair defenceman at that point, though his offence hadn't quite shone in the way Seider's already has. Ekblad's cap hit at the time that contract was signed was over 10% of the total team cap. For Seider to match that in signing a contract to kick in for fall of 2024, with the cap expected to balloon in the meantime, we could be looking at an AAV over $9 million.

If you look at more recent comparables with Cale Makar, Adam Fox, and Quinn Hughes, it's not difficult to see that the average cap hit of the top young defencemen may already be there. Seider hasn't yet put up the same point totals as these players, but there aren't a lot of perfect comparables for him at this point.

Overall, an eight-figure AAV for Seider isn't out of the question at this point. Felt like I should set that expectation now for these players, because there's a wave of massive contracts coming, and it's going to come a lot faster than many of us may expect.

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Trevor Zegras' projected AAV right now is $8.3 million. He's scoring close to a point-per-game on the worst team in the standings right now. Hopefully the Ducks realize they need to get him locked up sooner rather than later.

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The Pittsburgh Penguins shifted around their power play units, and the end result is the struggling Bryan Rust is now on the second unit, while Jeff Petry takes over a spot with the top unit. Petry has done well this year and earned the promotion. He has a history of producing well with the man-advantage, and could be a great fit with the personnel on this unit. His stock is likely about to rise a bit.

Meanwhile, this could either spark a reset with Rust, or it could drop his value down to what is likely his absolute low. Either way, this is a time to buy low on the winger. Right-wing is the shallowest position in fantasy, and to be able to acquire one that has averaged a 75-point-pace over the last three seasons, you have to do your due diligence and check in. Most of Rust's underlying numbers aren't too far out of his normal range, except for his IPP and his secondary assist percentage. The team has been scoring at its usual rate, but Rust is snake bitten, and just hasn't been factoring into points at his rate. Luck does turn around though, and it often turns around fast.

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Minnesota had a few changes as well, and key here was also a swap on the top power play unit at practice. Alex Goligoski took Calen Addison's spot, and it looks like that is going to stick for tonight's game. Goligoski hasn't run the top unit of a power play for any real length of time in nearly a decade. I don't expect that to change anytime soon, so this is likely just a little reset for Addison as well. That might make him a decent buy-low in one-year leagues at this time, but in dynasties his owners are likely still holding tight.

Jordan Greenway also looks to be ready to return (for the third time this season). Based on those same lines from practice, it looks as though Marco Rossi may be the odd one out, and could be sent to the AHL.

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The upcoming edition of Rick Roos' monthly mailbag has plenty of room for questions. To get yours to him you can either private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or send an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line. No one does a deeper dive into your fantasy hockey questions!

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Morgan Reilly is going to miss four to six weeks with what sounds like an MCL issue. This could be the chance for Rasmus Sandin to get going, it could be an opportunity for Mark Giordano to get some time with the first power play unit, or it could be the push the front office needs to go out and address the need on defence.

On an unrelated note, Jakob Chychrun made his season debut on Monday night, skating 23 minutes in the shootout loss, logging two shots, four hits, two blocks, and a minus-one rating. He's not what the Leafs need most, but it's fun to dream and to stoke the fire.

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Montreal Native Mike Matheson recently returned from an injury sustained in the offseason. Playing in only his second game of the season last night, he notched his first goal of the year.

Un premier pour le gars de la place!

Hometown boy's first as a Hab!#GoHabsGo pic.twitter.com/A5JDmXSKSD

— Canadiens Montréal (@CanadiensMTL) November 20, 2022

He's seeing a lot of power play time, and is shooting well. Generally the 28-year-old defender is still showing some rust, but he should shake that off soon. It's all a small sample size to this point, but he's seeing 60% of his shifts start in the offensive zone, which is a great sign for his deployment for the rest of the season.

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For the Sabres, Tage Thompson and Jeff Skinner notched a combined nine points, with Alex Tuch adding three of his own. It seems like Thompson (with his shooting percentages) and Jeff Skinner (with his contract) get all of the attention in Buffalo, but I want to talk about Tuch a little. [I’m also very mad at how many times the Sabres made me update those above stats last night – not cool guys.]

Tuch is a big-bodied 26-year-old, who still has another 75 games until he hits his breakout threshold. His career growth is what you want to see, with his production growing from the year before in all but one season thus far. His riding a few high percentages to a current point-per-game pace, but even normalizing those, he should have a reasonable shot at 70 points. This is also with room to grow with ice time, and opportunity as the team improves around him.

On the other hand, he still has yet to hit a 70% IPP that we like to see as a measurement of players that are driving lines versus playing the role of a passenger. If he was able to bring his usual 60-65% rate up to that 70% plateau with his possible breakout next year, then he could be treated year after year as a 70+ point player at the draft table.

He may be a large player, and usually with those we see a later breakout and an earlier drop-off in production, however, Tuch doesn't play a heavy game (anymore), averaging less than a hit per game, and keeping the block and PIM numbers a lot lower. He's a star in points-only setups, but in multi-category leagues he's someone that you will have to insulate with some extra peripherals across the rest of your lineup. The good thing with that is that his production shouldn't fall off as soon as he hits 30.

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Two of my early-season drops in Tyson Jost and Chris Wideman fought each other in one of the least expected tilts of the season. Neither has been a lineup regular thus far, though last night's performance bodes a lot better for Wideman keeping his spot than Jost. Wideman added another assist, putting him at four points in twelve games overall, but all four of those points have come in his last six appearances. He has also added 21 PIMs across those last six games, putting him on a full-season pace for double his career high. Don't expect that to continue.

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The schedule the rest of the week is a little funny, with heavy days on Wednesday and Friday, with an empty Thursday to accommodate Thanksgiving in the US. Take a little more care than you usually would in planning out the next few days, as there are likely going to be quite a few games left on your bench for the heavy days at this point.

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You can find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments. See you next Wednesday!