Cap League Goalie Rankings – November 2022

Alexander MacLean

2022-11-29

This edition is a few days late, and I will endeavour not to let that happen again. Sometimes life gets in the way though, and these things do happen, so I appreciate your patience in waiting for the update.

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There is always a lot of fluctuation when it comes to goalies. Linus Ullmark is making a Vezina case, and his $5 million contract doesn't look bad at all nowadays. Meanwhile, Jack Campbell has that same $5 million price tag, but hasn't adjusted well at all to the EDM defence. It may be in the second half, or it may be next season, but he should turn things around and get back to his career norm (around a 2.66 GAA and a .915 save percentage).

Up at the top of the rankings though, Logan Thompson is just breaking the roof off of rankings system. He forced me to make a few adjustments to the formulas, which pulled him back a little. He's still waivers exempt, and at the beginning of the year I thought he was going to be sent down once Laurent Brossoit was healthy. He is never getting sent down again, and he is going to be given opportunities as a starter for at least the next decade.

Other goalies on good teams have seen their stocks increase the most, such as Alexandar Georgiev, and Vitek Vanecek. Spencer Knight is one of the biggest risers, but there are two reasons he's not as valuable as Thompson right now, and those are Sergei Bobrovsky, and Knight's impending extension. The good news about Knight's cap hit rising to $4.5 million next season though, is that it will likely force Florida's hand to move out Bobrovsky, making Knight the undisputed starter on a playoff team. He's also still only 21 years old!

Standard pre-rankings note:

This isn't meant to be a be-all and end-all rating system for you to use without thinking and just trade your players for anyone above them on the list that you can find, but used with some foresight for managing salaries. Cap hit is used for the player cost, so if your league uses salary or AAV, please account for that, as it can greatly change the impact of rookies. The rankings are set up so as to provide the most value in the current season, while providing some value in future years, based on modeling for predicted salary increases and production growth.

The stats used for the goaltenders attempt to balance both ratio stats as well as volume. For those of you with variations towards either end of the spectrum, leaning more towards volume or rate stats, you will want to account for that change in value. Same thing goes for setting variations such as: number of teams, salary space, or roster positions. This list is made to be a baseline guide for player evaluation, and to promote discussion and understanding of how to optimize rosters in a cap league setting.

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The goalie list comes not only with a rankings system, but with value tiers. The tiers (also computed by a formula of mine) represent a more general view on a goalie's value taking into account a few overarching factors. Cheap backups can have higher ratings but show up lower down the tier rankings. The high ranking is due to their low cap hits coupled with an established floor with some possible upside. The lower tier is a result of them having uncertain volume, and the lower likelihood of hitting their upside in any given year. In general, aim to have the highest rated players if you are looking to be most cap efficient, but use the tiers if you just want to focus on having the best goalies and you are comfortable paying a little more for that security (my preference is usually to lean towards the more cap efficient options because of how variable goalies can be).

If you note a mistake, or have any further questions about the ranking system, please let me know. You can find me on Twitter here @alexdmaclean.

Comments help with optimizing the values, because they're not perfect and they never will be.

We're sticking with the +/- 5.0 rating that Dobber uses on all of his rating schemes as the range for approximately equivalent value. The skater and goalie rankings are synched so that the value of a skater against a goalie can be compared, though the scale of the ratings has changed a little since the last update.

RankNameAgeCap HitYrsRatingTierPrev Rnk
1Logan Thompson25$766,6673406.9836
2Igor Shesterkin26$5,666,6673209.9412
3Ilya Sorokin27$4,000,0002196.6525
4Vitek Vanecek26$3,400,0003175.44210
5Linus Ullmark29$5,000,0003173.46131
6Alexandar Georgiev26$3,400,0003172.53316
7Ilya Samsonov25$1,800,0001170.5634
8Jake Oettinger23$4,000,0003169.69113
9Juuse Saros27$5,000,0003168.2529
10Spencer Knight21$925,0001167.90230
11Jeremy Swayman24$925,0001167.8921
12Tristan Jarry27$3,500,0001166.3517
13Connor Hellebuyck29$6,166,6662160.10320
14Anton Forsberg30$2,750,0003157.14414
15Jacob Markstrom32$6,000,0004153.79111
16Darcy Kuemper32$5,250,0005152.73118
17Ville Husso27$4,750,0003151.72221
18Andrei Vasilevskiy28$9,500,0006150.25117
19Frederik Andersen33$4,500,0001150.2328
20Jordan Binnington29$6,000,0005149.08325
21James Reimer34$2,250,0001147.13419
22Jack Campbell30$5,000,0005145.16112
23Pavel Francouz32$2,000,0002144.6423
24Thatcher Demko26$5,000,0004144.11215
25Carter Hart24$3,979,0002143.70339
26Jake Allen32$2,875,0001141.03423
27Filip Gustavsson24$787,5001138.82435
28Martin Jones32$2,000,0001137.73554
29Adin Hill26$2,175,0001126.83424
30Anthony Stolarz28$950,0001125.92527
31John Gibson29$6,400,0005123.04443
32Cam Talbot35$3,666,6661122.39526
33Felix Sandstrom25$775,0002122.26437
34Eric Comrie27$1,800,0002121.92438
35Antti Raanta33$2,000,0001121.05332
36Casey DeSmith31$1,800,0002119.82541
37Joonas Korpisalo28$1,300,0001119.54533
38Spencer Martin27$762,5002119.51434
39Charlie Lindgren28$1,100,0003118.78358
40Marc-Andre Fleury38$3,500,0002117.72529
41Dan Vladar25$750,0001117.64422
42Elvis Merzlikins28$5,400,0005115.85428
43Petr Mrazek30$3,800,0002114.08536
44Cal Petersen28$5,000,0003110.95544
45Alex Nedeljkovic26$3,000,0001110.26542
46Sergei Bobrovsky34$10,000,0004108.31340
47Jonathan Quick36$5,800,0001107.54550
48Scott Wedgewood30$1,000,0001107.44548
49Matt Murray28$6,250,0002107.36549
50Connor Ingram25$733,3331106.20653
51Semyon Varlamov34$5,000,0001102.16652
52Mackenzie Blackwood25$2,800,000199.64556
53Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen23$837,500298.04546
54Sam Montembeault26$1,000,000297.99661
55Pyotr Kochetkov23$842,500197.773NR
56Brian Elliott37$900,000195.71755
57Karel Vejmelka39$2,725,000395.505NR
58Philipp Grubauer31$5,900,000594.59445
59Craig Anderson41$1,500,000193.77657
60Stuart Skinner39$750,000192.91759
61Alex Stalock35$750,000191.467NR
62David Rittich30$900,000188.30660

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