Looking Ahead: Perfetti and the Jets
Andrew Santillo
2022-12-02
Anyone out there ever been in one of those dog fight fantasy matchups? You know the ones if you play in head-to-head leagues, between the two of you the lead has changed daily and both of you are so far and away have the highest points totals in the league. If that's you this week let's tilt the matchup your way this week and into next. Let's dive in!
The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use him for the next several days)
Jared McCann, C/LW, Seattle Kraken (Rostered in 31% of ESPN leagues, 47% Fantrax, 14% Yahoo) – I remember writing up McCann last year, back in the dark ages of when Seattle changed up their even-strength and power-play lines seemingly every game. The line shuffling has settled this season and adding some Seattle top six might be a good move to make.
McCann himself might always be an immediate fix, he shoots the puck a fair amount and plays on a club that's usually lower rostered. Right now, though, his roster numbers have started to creep up a bit and for good reason, he has seven points in his last six games and is on a line that is playing very well as of late. Currently slotted in right alongside Matty Beniers at center, McCann has been the beneficiary of his play recently on a line that has five goals for and one against in Seattle's last three games with a 61.8 shots for percentage over that time span.
As far as ice time is concerned, McCann has sat around 16 minutes this season which is a little bit on the lower side for time on ice than we would want to see on a club that has tended to split time on ice between all four lines. For fantasy, McCann can still have value even skating on the very low end of 15 minutes, but DFS I'd be cautious. Seattle's second line can make a nice filler stack with McCann along with Beniers and Jordan Eberle but they'll have to work well in the time their given on ice to provide value.
The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)
Cole Perfetti, C/LW/RW, Winnipeg Jets (Rostered in 10% of ESPN leagues, 60% Fantrax, 13% Yahoo) – I've been keeping tabs on Perfetti here for about a week now, but Winnipeg's game on Sunday along with his mention in the Ramblings from the 28th is a perfect segue to highlight him here as a building block.
I liked Perfetti in his draft class, maybe not the fastest skater out on the ice, but he looked like he always knew where his spot was and has a good shot. Last three games out Perfetti has five points, and is skating along Winnipeg's top line along with Mark Scheifele who is an upgrade offensively over Pierre-Luc Dubois on Winnipeg's second line, and Blake Wheeler, who…can skate? I'm trying to find something positive about Wheeler in this stage of his career. Good glue guy? Sure, let's go with that.
Still, the even strength Winnipeg top line has been good and Perfetti is also skating on the Jets top power play unit which means more exposure for him in fantasy and DFS. Honestly, I was sort of surprised that his roster numbers were as low as they are (Fantrax tends to be higher for dynasty leagues), but that's good news for us. Going forward this season if his finishing ability improves along with more ice time, he could be a valuable piece in fantasy. Being eligible at every forward position helps his versatility in lineups that play all forward spots and in cap leagues his cap number is lower to help roster him.
The Odd Man Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)
Gabe Vilardi, LW/RW, Los Angeles Kings (Rostered in 47% of ESPN leagues, 74% of Fantrax, 42% Yahoo) – Remember back in the old days when people in your league would go out and add bottom six players from LA who were getting top six minutes? Ah, those were the days. Different times, October. Vilardi being one of those skaters that is now and odd man out because, well, that's how the lineup is constructed now for the Kings.
Earlier this season Vilardi saw time on the Kings' top two lines and was a popular add due to his roster numbers as it related to the skaters he was paired with. If you wanted a skater on LA's top line, you're not rostering Kevin Fiala or Anze Kopitar unless you drafted either or both, so it made sense to look into adding the third piece to a line that was likely available. Now however, Vilardi is skating down on LA's third line but still carrying higher roster numbers along all sites.
Vilardi did score two goals during LA's high-scoring game with Seattle earlier this week. Yet that was a game where I believe if you look at the score sheet, everyone that touched the ice probably got a point in that 9-8 OT game. Really though, looking at the score sheet you'll see Vilardi's ice time – 10:44. The previous two games before that not much higher with his TOI coming in at 12:16 and 13:14. He might a piece that you could trade along with someone else in a two for one trade, he has value for now but that won't last long given his current status.
The Anchors (They’ll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)
Nazem Kadri, C, Calgary Flames (Rostered in 91% of ESPN leagues, 97% Fantrax, 90% Yahoo) – Anyone ever have that fantasy player that you've always wanted to have on your club but have never had the chance to roster? For me, that's Kadri, but I feel like if there was a great time to have him on your roster, it has since come and gone.
No points in six games not great and the longest stretch he went last season staying off the scoresheet was four games and that's just the issue here, this is valuing a player off of past performance. Kadri's points per 60 minutes is down over a full point from 3.8 to 2.4 and it's a reflection of his line, he's still in a good situation in Calgary but to be fair to Dillon Dube on Kadri's left-wing, he's not Mikko Rantanen.
If you are rostering Kadri now, he still shoots a good amount so that's a positive and unless the Flames really decide to spread the scoring around, he'll be second line and top power-play unit center. I just have concerns that he is going to fall far short of where he ended last season, he's still a good piece to have on a roster. Just be wary of his offense moving forward this season.
Love ‘Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)
This period runs through December 2nd to December 14th
Winnipeg – The Jets grab the top spot this week coming in at 7-3-0 in their last ten games. It's just a guess here, but I'm thinking they grade out well with games versus Columbus and Anaheim at home for their next two games, again just a guess. They also have a busy schedule next ten days which helps their case, so I like them here moving forward into next week.
Ottawa – The analyzer was all over the place with no one team really appearing more than a couple times so we're going to go with the Senators here. Granted, this is a weird Sens team, but they did tie the highest CF in all of November at 714 with Calgary.
Columbus – A busy schedule for the Jackets with two games this week and four next week help the CBJ case as a Love Em. Looking into our crystal ball here, their top line be higher rostered in DFS each of their next six games and beyond because it's Columbus and that's usually the case. We can't explain it, we can only expect it.
Leave ‘Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)
San Jose – The Sharks quietly had a decent November offensively falling at second in goals for which in turn resulted in the second highest expected goals for. San Jose will only play two games next week so for now they are a Leave 'Em.
Carolina – Like the Sharks, the Canes only play twice next week but I think this could be a good thing for this Carolina club. They had a strange start schedule-wise to the season with a very long west coast road trip followed by games in division on the road. This might be a nice break to get rested here next week.
Nashville – So yes, the Preds play two games next week which never grades out particularly well but looking a little deeper here and there might be reason to worry. Nashville had three games cancelled due to a water main break at Bridgestone Arena and looked a little sluggish coming back against the Ducks earlier this week. Whether that was a result of a longer break or just the was Anaheim played them is hard to determine but with even more time off coming up it could mean slow starts for Nashville.
Friday, December 2nd to Thursday, December 8th, 2022 |
Best Bets |
NY Rangers 4.31 – Away VGK – Home OTT CHI STL |
Columbus 4.11 – Away WPG PIT – Home DET BUF |
Winnipeg 4.11 – Away STL – Home CBJ ANA FLA |
Ottawa 3.81 – Away NYR DAL – Home SJS LAK |
Detroit 3.76 – Away CBJ TBL FLA – Home VGK |
Steer Clear |
Nashville 1.66 – Away NYI TBL |
Carolina 1.90 – Away LAK ANA |
Pittsburgh 2.05 – Home STL CBJ |
Buffalo 2.11 – Away CBJ – Home SJS |
Seattle 2.26 – Home FLA MTL |
Saturday, Decemeber 3rd to Friday, December 9th, 2022 |
Best Bets |
Edmonton 4.57 – Home MTL WSH ARI MIN |
Calgary 4.26 – Away CBJ – Home WSH ARI MIN |
Winnipeg 4.20 – Away STL CHI – Home ANA FLA |
Philadelphia 4.10 – Away VGK – Home NJD COL WSH |
NY Rangers 4.06 – Away VGK COL – Home CHI STL |
Steer Clear |
Nashville 0.86 – Away TBL |
Carolina 1.90 – Away LAK ANA |
Toronto 2.70 – Away TBL DAL – Home LAK |
Los Angeles 2.79 – Away OTT TOR – Home CAR |
Montreal 2.85 – Away EDM VAN SEA |
Sunday, December 4th to Saturday, December 10th, 2022 |
Best Bets |
Dallas 4.25 – Home MIN TOR OTT DET |
Winnipeg 4.20 – Away STL CHI – Home ANA FLA |
Calgary 4.16 – Away CBJ TOR – Home ARI MIN |
NY Islanders 4.14 – Away NJD – Home CHI STL CAR |
Columbus 4.05 – Away PIT – Home DET BUF CGY |
Steer Clear |
Carolina 1.85 – Away ANA NYI |
Nashville 1.98 – Away TBL – Home OTT |
New Jersey 2.15 – Home CHI NYI |
Seattle 2.21 – Away WSH – Home MTL |
St. Louis 2.67 – Away NYR NYI – Home WPG |
Monday, December 5th to Sunday, December 11th, 2022 |
Best Bets |
Calgary 4.16 – Away CBJ TOR – Home ARI MIN |
Washington 4.15 – Away EDM PHI WPG – Home SEA |
Winnipeg 4.09 – Away STL CHI – Home FLA WSH |
Philadelphia 4.09 – Away VGK ARI – Home COL WSH |
Florida 4.06 – Away WPG TBL – Home DET SEA |
Steer Clear |
Carolina 1.85 – Away ANA NYI |
Nashville 1.96 – Away TBL – Home OTT |
San Jose 1.99 – Away ANA – Home VAN |
Anaheim 2 – Home CAR SJS |
Chicago 2.10 – Away NJD – Home WPG |
Tuesday, December 6th to Monday, December 12th, 2022 |
Best Bets |
Pittsburgh 4.25 – Away BUF – Home CBJ BUF DAL |
Dallas 4.16 – Away PIT – Home TOR OTT DET |
Winnipeg 4.09 – Away STL CHI – Home FLA WSH |
Florida 4.06 – Away WPG TBL – Home DET SEA |
Los Angeles 4.04 – Away OTT TOR MTL CBJ |
Steer Clear |
Carolina 1.85 – Away ANA NYI |
San Jose 1.99 – Away ANA – Home VAN |
Vancouver 2.04 – Away SJS – Home MIN |
Chicago 2.10 – Away NJD – Home WPG |
Detroit 2.66 – Away TBL FLA DAL |
Friday, December 7th to Tuesday, December 13th, 2022 |
Best Bets |
Washington 4.34 – Away PHI WPG CHI – Home SEA |
Florida 4.16 – Away TBL – Home DET SEA CBJ |
Dallas 4.15 – Away PIT NJD – Home OTT DET |
Arizona 4.15 – Away EDM SJS – Home BOS PHI |
Winnipeg 4.14 – Away STL CHI – Home WSH VGK |
Steer Clear |
Carolina 1.81 – Away NYI DET |
Montreal 1.84 – Home LAK CGY |
Vancouver 2.04 – Away SJS – Home MIN |
Chicago 2.10 – Home WPG WSH |
Detroit 2.65 – Away FLA DAL – Home CAR |
Saturday, December 8th to Wednesday, December 14th, 2022 |
Best Bets |
Ottawa 4.22 – Away DAL NSH – Home ANA MTL |
Florida 4.16 – Away TBL – Home DET SEA CBJ |
Dallas 4.15 – Away PIT NJD – Home OTT DET |
Winnipeg 4.14 – Away STL CHI – Home WSH VGK |
Los Angeles 4.09 – Away TOR MTL CBJ BUF |
Steer Clear |
Carolina 1.81 – Away NYI DET |
Vancouver 1.81 – Away CGY – Home MIN |
NY Rangers 2.01 – Away COL – Home NJD |
Chicago 2.10 – Home WPG WSH |
San Jose 2.31 – Away ANA – Home ARI |