Top 10 Players Too Good to Drop, Too Awful to Dress

Tom Collins

2022-12-05

There comes a moment in every fantasy general manager’s season when they have to make the tough decision on underperforming, high-calibre players on their roster.

It’s a no-brainer to hold on to players through cold streaks, but what happens when that cold streak lasts the whole season? How long are you willing to hold on to a player while he struggles and your fantasy squad falls further in the standings? This could be an example of sunk cost fallacy, where you feel you can’t give up on a player because you have so much invested in him, even though dropping the player will benefit your team.

We’re two months into the season, so it’s no longer cold streaks. For many of these players, this could be one of those aberration seasons where nothing goes right and everything is magically fixed a year from now. Of course, that doesn’t help you for this season.

Below are 10 players who are struggling this year, but you can’t bear to drop them.

Keep in mind that we’re looking at one-year leagues. In keeper leagues, you can either trade them to improve your team or hold on to these players and hope for the best next season.

We’re also not going to include players currently injured, as most leagues have IR spots that you can use to stash those players instead of dropping them. Rest assured, if we had been looking at this list a week ago, Kris Letang, Thatcher Demko and maybe Tyler Bertuzzi would have been included.

10. Andrei Vasilevskiy

A week ago, Vas would have been much higher on this list, especially as he was coming off a home game where he gave up five goals on 29 shots against the Bruins. At that point of the season, he was 7-6-1 with a 3.00 GAA and a .903 SV%. You can forgive anyone who chose to bench Vasilevskiy last week. Since then, he is 3-1-0 with a 2.01 GAA and a .929 SV%. Until he can prove that this is not a one-week fluke, fantasy general managers will continue to be nervous. Vasilevskiy is one of the numerous goalies on this list. That was not by design, but there are so many top options that are struggling, and the waiver wire isn’t exactly brimming with great netminders. A 12-team league that starts two netminders will generally have all the number one goalies and most of the top-quality backups already drafted.

9. Vincent Trocheck

Not as sexy a name as many others on this list, but he’s the number one centre on a team that employs Artemi Panarin and Adam Fox. He started as one of the best centres in the league. In October, he had nine points in 10 games to go along with four PIM, a minus-two, 41 shots, three power-play points and 29 hits. Since then, Trocheck has six points in 16 games to go along with 10 PIM, a minus-eight, 48 shots, five power-play points and 39 hits. He’s still averaging 20-plus minutes a night, but just isn’t producing. Since the center position is the deepest in fantasy hockey, he should be expendable, but considering he is also on the power-play for 76.7 per cent of the Rangers’ man-advantage minutes, he’s getting too much of an opportunity to simply drop.

8. John Gibson

I drafted Gibson in both of my one-year leagues this season, for a couple of reasons. One is that Gibson always starts the season on fire, and I was hoping to use that to boost my goalie stats early. The second was with the hope that Anaheim would be an improved squad this season, which would help lead to better overall numbers for Gibson. None of those two things have happened. One of my leagues, a roto league, is bigger with more roster spots, and the best netminders left on the waiver wire are Semyon Varlamov, Elvis Merzlikins, Filip Gustavsson, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and a bunch of other backups. With an auction waiver wire, I can’t simply stream in a goalie. Gibson is 4-12-3 with a 3.98 GAA and a 0.896 SV%. However, there are two reasons optimists might look at for keeping Gibson. The first is that Gibson has allowed two goals in three of his last five games (although he has a win in only one of those games), which could point to improving play. The second reason is that backup Anthony Storalz’s stats are just as awful as Gibson’s, so there’s little chance of Gibson losing the starting gig.

7. Jack Campbell

It’s never a good sign when your starting goalie, who just signed a five-year, $25 million deal, has a goals against average north of 4.00 and a save percentage below .900. He’s only started one of his last four games, and that was a five-goal stinker against Minnesota last week. And this is not a few games skewing the numbers either. In 13 games, he’s given up at least three goals in 11 of them. He’s given up five or more goals in four games. Stuart Skinner isn’t that much better an option as, after a hot start, he’s given up at least three goals in seven of his last nine contests. But at least Skinner is picking up wins. Knowing that Campbell should be getting back his number-one status eventually makes it tough to release him to the waiver wire.

6. Sergei Bobrovsky

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A year ago, Bobrovsky led the league in wins at 39. This year has just been awful, as he has four wins in 12 games. His goals against average is a career-worst 3.84, and his save percentage is also a career-worst .878 SV%. He’s won one of his last five starts, but has only started five of Florida’s last 14 games. The team is instead turning to Spencer Knight, who has been the much better netminder this year. Hopefully, you managed to snag Knight as insurance in case Bobrovsky did struggle like this.

5. Moritz Seider

After a great rookie season when he put up 50 points, it’s been a bit of a setback season, as he’s now on pace for 38 points. That’s not great when you consider you want to be drafting defensemen who can put up a minimum of 40 points, making him a borderline defenseman. He also has only four power-play points, a major drop from last year when he had 21. He’s lost his top power-play spot at times to Filip Hronek, including the game on Sunday night. Hronek, by the way, is on pace for 71 points. Seider’s shots per game has gone from 2.3 a year ago to 1.8 this season and he’s already at a minus-13. Only his hits and blocked shots are keeping him from being waiver wire fodder for many of us.

4. Patrick Kane

Anyone who has dropped Kane this season is probably a better fantasy general manager than me. I have Kane in a one-year head-to-head Yahoo league, and he has been awful. He was ranked 456th on Sunday, and it was only that high thanks to a great Saturday game (led by three power-play points). To make matters worse, it’s a multi-cat league, where we count PIM, hits, blocked shots and faceoff wins, to go along with a short bench (just three bench spots with 12 active roster spots). I should drop him, but it’s just too enticing to hold on to him and hope he can bounce back to elite status for fantasy playoffs if he gets traded. His 20 points in 24 games are fine, but not elite. It’s the rest of his stats that are lacking. He has two goals in his last 17 games, is a minus-14, and his 3.1 shots per game is his lowest since 2014-15.

3. Jacob Markstrom

Markstrom was an integral piece to many fantasy hockey championships a season ago, thanks in large part to his 37 wins and nine shutouts. So far this year, he has eight wins in 17 games with zero shutouts. His goals against average is slightly below 3.00, and his save percentage is sub-.900 per cent for the first time since he played three games with the Canucks in 2014-15. He’s losing starts to Daniel Vladar, who has manned the crease for four of the Flames’ last six games and has gone 2-1-1 with a 1.97 GAA and a .940 SV% in those four contests. Markstrom summed up his fantasy season last week: “I just suck at hockey right now.”

2. Victor Hedman

As a Hedman owner in a points-only keeper league, I empathize with other fantasy owners regarding the exceptionally tough November that Hedman had. On November 13, Hedman was removed from the top power-play unit. That just exasperated even further what was already a frustrating situation. Overall, he has one point in his last 12 games, and only one power-play point in his last 17 contests. He’s likely not to get that power-play time back anytime soon either, as Mikhail Sergachev has eight power-play points in 10 games since he was promoted. Hedman has gone from 85 points last year to a 37-point pace this season. While his shot rate has also dropped, his hits per game and blocked shots per game are some of his best numbers in years. Moral victories don’t count for much in fantasy hockey, but at this point, you take what you can get. If you are looking for a bright side, maybe look at the Leafs-Lightning game on Saturday, when Hedman was back on the top power-play unit in the third period. Just don’t pay attention to the fact that Sergachev had a power-play assist on the second unit in that period. 

1. Jonathan Huberdeau

The newest Flame is on pace to finish with fewer than half the number of points he had a year ago, and his lowest point total since 2013-14 when he was a sophomore. It’s been awful in Calgary, but one of the reasons for his low points total could be the Flames’ system. In Florida, Huberdeau averaged at least 18:25 minutes per night every year for the last five years, and averaged 19:26 a year ago. He would also routinely be on the ice for at least 70 per cent of the Panthers’ power-play minutes. Compare that to this season, where he is averaging 17:15 per night, while playing 57.5 per cent of Calgary’s power-play minutes. His shot rate is down to 1.86 shots per game, the second lowest of his career. His power-play production is at 0.29 power-play points per game, down from at least 0.41 in each of the previous four seasons. He was drafted on average 11th overall in Yahoo leagues, making it even tougher for anyone wanting to drop him.

2 Comments

  1. Karl 2022-12-05 at 10:04

    Hey great idea for an article! I do have one teensy criticism. That’s an awful lot of goalies- five is half the list lol! And tbh I think most pooling know that goalies are voodoo- i could see one or two – especially vasy but half the list seems hefty! In any case I loved the forwards presented and am going to dig around for similar ones- cheers!!

  2. Garry Irving 2022-12-05 at 16:46

    No wonder my pool is terrible. I have 7/10

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